Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
238 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop each afternoon through the week. Localized flash flooding
will be possible with the stronger storms. Temperatures are
expected to remain around normal to slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have developed along the
Mogollon Rim and in the northeast near the Four Corners and Chuska
Mountains this afternoon. Morning cloud cover and light showers thus
far kept most of central Yavapai County fairly quiet as expected.
Skies have since cleared with daytime heating allowing for the
area to destabilize. Expect scattered thunderstorm development in
this area soon starting in the high terrain. Flash flooding
remains the greatest risk through the afternoon. Storms are
training over a few areas producing very heavy rainfall. Shower
and storm coverage will begin to decrease the late evening with
only lingering showers expected overnight.

Looking ahead, it appear the monsoon pattern remains in place with
a strengthening high over the Four Corners region. Expect daily
thunderstorm chances across the area to continue with the risk of
heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds. Flash flooding will remain the
main concern. Outside of thunderstorms, expect light winds and
mild temperatures each day.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect mainly VFR conditions
for the 24 hour TAF forecast period. SCT-NUMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD
+TSRA through 03Z. MVFR conditions possible in stronger storms.
Sfc winds outside of storms generally light. Shower and
thunderstorm chances return after 18z Tue. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Tuesday through Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day. Coverage will be scattered to numerous, with locally
heavy rainfall amounts. Outside of storms, expect light winds and
near normal high temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...ET

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
154 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

AZZ007-015-192145-
Western Mogollon Rim-Coconino Plateau-
154 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WILLIAMS AREA IN COCONINO
COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM MST...

At 153 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Williams, or 32 miles west of Flagstaff, moving northwest at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Williams and Kaibab Lake Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3529 11203 3518 11219 3532 11243 3550 11218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 137DEG 5KT 3530 11218

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
307 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

AZZ008-037-038-192230-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-Oak Creek
and Sycamore Canyons-
307 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIMROCK AND
MCGUIREVILLE AREAS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM MST...

At 306 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Montezuma Well, or 7 miles northeast of Camp Verde, moving northwest
at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mcguireville, Rimrock, Middle Verde, Lake Montezuma, Wet Beaver
Creek Campground and V Bar V Visitors Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 11164 3454 11172 3462 11194 3480 11185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 119DEG 9KT 3464 11175

JJ