Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2021

Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 19, 2021Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 19, 2021, 1:48 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2021, 1:48 PM MST (20:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2021, 4:45 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 178 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 96 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1290 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 68 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

152 
WGUS55 KFGZ 192048
FFWFGZ
AZC025-192345-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0051.210719T2048Z-210719T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
148 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 445 PM MST.

* At 144 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with heavy 
  rain in extreme western Yavapai County, from 5 to 15 miles south 
  of Interstate 40. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. 
  Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are possible in 
  the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water
           crossings, creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mount Hope.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  South Fork Walnut Creek, Turkey Canyon, Cow Creek, Muddy Creek, 
  Pine Creek, Bear Creek, Mount Hope Tank, North Fork Walnut Creek, 
  Adobe Creek, Hop Creek, Willow Creek, Deep Canyon, Burro Creek and 
  Trout Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 11297 3492 11332 3514 11322 3511 11294

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JJ

2 follow-up statements

584 
WGUS75 KFGZ 192250
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
350 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

AZC025-192345-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210719T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai AZ-
350 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 348 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated that heavy rain fell earlier 
this afternoon in extreme western Yavapai County, from 5 to 15 miles 
south of Interstate 40. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mount Hope.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  South Fork Walnut Creek, Turkey Canyon, Cow Creek, Muddy Creek, 
  Pine Creek, Bear Creek, Mount Hope Tank, North Fork Walnut Creek, 
  Adobe Creek, Hop Creek, Willow Creek, Deep Canyon, Burro Creek and 
  Trout Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 11297 3492 11332 3514 11322 3511 11294

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JJ

473 
WGUS75 KFGZ 192343
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
443 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

AZC025-192353-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210719T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai AZ-
443 PM MST Mon Jul 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
EXTREME WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended in extreme western Yavapai County, from 5 
to 15 miles south of Interstate 40. Any flooding that occurred 
should decrease over the next few hours, but high flows could linger 
into early evening.

LAT...LON 3486 11297 3492 11332 3514 11322 3511 11294

$$

JJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 5:31 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Gila	59 min
Jul 18, 5:43 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila, Yavapai	24 min
Jul 18, 6:14 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 18, 6:21 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		24 min
Jul 19, 1:54 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		51 min
Jul 19, 2:08 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	37 min
Jul 19, 2:30 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Jul 19, 3:07 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		23 min
Jul 19, 3:28 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		32 min
Jul 19, 3:37 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Jul 19, 4:01 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Navajo	3 hr
Jul 19, 4:27 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2021 Every flash flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.