Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

815 
WWUS55 KFGZ 300731
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1231 AM MST Thu Sep 30 2021

AZC007-017-300739-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-210930T0730Z/
Gila-Navajo-
1231 AM MST Thu Sep 30 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GILA AND NAVAJO COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1230 AM MST...
    
The severe thunderstorm near Cibecue which prompted the Severe 
Thunderstorm Warning has weakened and moved north of the area. New 
storms approaching Cibecue from the south  may produce additional 
heavy rain and dime sized hail. However, the threat for severe 
weather has ended and the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3398 11046 3402 11056 3416 11054 3410 11035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 193DEG 10KT 3411 11048 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
911 PM MST Wed Sep 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms during the evening
will increase in coverage through the night across the area east
of Flagstaff and Page. Showers and storms could reach as far west
as Flagstaff and Prescott Thursday before gradually diminishing
Thursday night. A warming and drying trend will begin Friday with
seasonable fall weather this weekend. Unsettled and cooler
weather may return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system will slowly move across
Arizona overnight. The low will tap into moisture present across
eastern Arizona for increasing showers and thunderstorms through
the morning hours. The overnight storm activity is expected to
remain mainly east of a Prescott-Flagstaff-Page line where the
best combination of large-scale upward motion and moisture will
exist. Otherwise, expect mainly cloudy skies and generally light
overnight winds. The chance of precipitation for the remainder of
the evening was updated to account for current shower/storm
coverage and expected progression.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /317 PM MST/...The trough will move eastward
this evening, providing better dynamics for numerous showers and
storms to form over the eastern Mogollon Rim and in the White
Mountains late this evening and into the morning hours. Lingering
moisture will allow for a slight chance of rain in other parts of
the state on Thursday with the majority of activity remaining east
of I-17. By Thursday evening, precipitation chances will begin
decreasing with rain chances primarily near the New Mexico border.
The aforementioned cold front will act to begin drying out
northern Arizona. By Friday, a ridge will begin to form, leading
to a warming trend as the state dries out. Afternoon temperatures
will climb to seasonal norms with bigger diurnal swings as dew
points lower into the weekend. While low temperatures may approach
the mid 30s for some areas in the early morning hours, enough
moisture is likely to remain in place to keep the minimums above
freezing.

Another disturbance is possible towards the start of next week,
but models continue to be conflicted on the location of the low
pressure system when it moves into Arizona. Indications are that
the trough will approach and begin impacting the area sometime
between Monday evening to Tuesday afternoon. Stay tuned for
updates as the models begin to come to better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Look for increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms overnight southeast of a KPAN-KRQE line
with areas of MVFR conditions developing. Showers,thunderstorms and
MVFR conditions spreading as far west as a KPRC-KFLG-Four Corners
line Thursday afternoon and evening. Light and variable winds
overnight will become northeasterly at 5-15 kts on Thursday.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Rain chances in the White Mountains and along the
Mogollon Rim continue Thursday with cooler temperatures expected.
By Friday, the region begins to warm and dry. Generally light winds
each day.

Saturday through Monday...The warming trend will continue through
the weekend with no rain expected Saturday or Sunday. Another
disturbance could increase winds and bring a chance of precipitation
as early as Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum/JM
AVIATION...McCollum/MCT
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum/JM

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
748 PM MST Wed Sep 29 2021

AZZ008-015-037-038-300315-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Western Mogollon Rim-Yavapai County
Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
748 PM MST Wed Sep 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Yavapai and Coconino
Counties  in the Sedona area through 815 PM MST...

At 745 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking some strong thunderstorms
near Sedona, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sedona, Page Springs, Village At Oak Creek, Cornville and Red Rock
State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 260 between mile markers 212 and 213.
 State Route 179 between mile markers 302 and 313.
 State Route 89A between mile markers 361 and 379.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 11192 3495 11168 3479 11161 3462 11197
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 344DEG 14KT 3487 11173

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
841 PM MST Wed Sep 29 2021

AZZ008-015-016-037-038-300415-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Western Mogollon Rim-Yavapai County
Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
841 PM MST Wed Sep 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Yavapai and Coconino
Counties through 915 PM MST...

At 840 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Village At Oak Creek, or 10 miles southeast of Sedona, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mcguireville, Montezuma Well, Rimrock, Lake Montezuma, Montezuma
Castle National Monument, Wet Beaver Creek Campground and V Bar V
Visitors Center.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 17 between mile markers 293 and 310.
 State Route 179 between mile markers 299 and 304.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3466 11186 3485 11167 3475 11154 3458 11173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 311DEG 15KT 3473 11170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DB