Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

582 
WWUS55 KFGZ 302116
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
216 PM MST Thu Sep 30 2021

AZC005-025-302130-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0180.000000T0000Z-210930T2130Z/
Yavapai-Coconino-
216 PM MST Thu Sep 30 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM MST
FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES...

At 216 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stoneman Lake,
or 18 miles southeast of Sedona, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Stoneman Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 11171 3483 11157 3467 11141 3458 11163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 318DEG 15KT 3471 11153 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MCT

546 
WWUS55 KFGZ 302128
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
228 PM MST Thu Sep 30 2021

AZC005-025-302137-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0180.000000T0000Z-210930T2130Z/
Yavapai-Coconino-
228 PM MST Thu Sep 30 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM MST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will 
be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds and heavy rain are still 
possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3476 11171 3483 11157 3467 11141 3458 11163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 318DEG 15KT 3468 11149 

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
142 PM MST Thu Sep 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across north central and northeastern Arizona through this
evening. Showers will taper off from west to east tonight with
showers continuing in the Four Corners region through Friday. A
warming and drying trend will begin Friday with seasonable fall
weather this weekend. Unsettled and cooler weather may return
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Numerous rain showers continue across eastern
Arizona this afternoon in response to upper level low pressure
slowly moving from Utah into Arizona. The low will slowly move
through Arizona tonight and into New Mexico on Friday. The most
widespread rainfall will continue mainly over Apache county and
gradually shift northward through the Four Corners tonight.
Meanwhile, clearing further west has allowed some instability
thunderstorms to develop as far west as Williams and the Mogollon
Rim. Expect the convection to continue along and south of the Rim
through early this evening before dissipating. Showers will
continue mainly in the Four Corners region through Friday
afternoon before coming to an end. Clearing across western/central
Arizona tonight will allow temperatures to cool efficiently with
a few cold spots around Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon dropping
below freezing.

Weak high pressure is forecast to build over the region from
Friday through Monday of next week bringing dry and warmer weather
through the weekend with scattered high level clouds.

Another cut-off low from out over the Pacific is forecast to bring
an increase in moisture and a return of rain chances early next
week. The most likely time period is looking like Tuesday and
Tuesday night. However, there are subtle differences in leading
shortwave energy which could lead to shower chances as early as
Monday. The latter part of next week looks to favor dry and mild
weather, with perhaps an increase in wind speeds.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...SCT-NMRS -SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD
+TSRA through 06Z-8Z. Stronger storms may produce brief IFR/MVFR
conditions. Mainly VFR elsewhere. Sfc winds generally light.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across
northern Arizona through this evening. Dry and slightly warmer on
Friday, except for isolated convective activity over Apache county.
Winds light through the period. Dry and warmer on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and warm conditions Sunday. Warm
weather continues Monday, although a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns to the district. Moisture and chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday. Light winds
throughout.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
153 PM MST Thu Sep 30 2021

AZZ008-015-016-037-038-302130-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Western Mogollon Rim-Yavapai County
Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
153 PM MST Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Yavapai and Coconino
Counties southeast of Sedona through 230 PM MST...

At 152 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stoneman Lake, or 9 miles southeast of Sedona, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stoneman Lake.

This includes Interstate 17 between mile markers 302 and 317.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 11176 3488 11160 3469 11143 3460 11165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 333DEG 14KT 3479 11164

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCT