Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
146 PM MST Fri Jul 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure remains in control through the weekend,
delivering hot daytime temperatures through Sunday. A slight
increase in monsoonal moisture will take place over the weekend,
however showers and storms are expected to remain isolated to the
Mogollon Rim. More significant moisture looks to return next week,
with greater chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have develop
across the the Mogollon Rim, Chuska Mountains and Black Mesa this
afternoon. Activity over the far northeast is expected to diminish
within the next few hours. Latest HRRR guidance has activity over
the Mogollon Rim increasing over the next couple of hours, with a
line of thunderstorms moving off the Rim into this evening. Much
of the activity should diminish around 8pm, with only a few light
showers and storms remaining through 10pm over southern Yavapai
and Gila counties. Primary threats will be strong gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rainfall, a few of the stronger storms also
have the potential to produce some small hail.

The strong ridge over the southwest will remain in place through
the weekend, with heights maximize over northern Arizona on
Saturday. As a result, hot temperatures are expected to continue
over the area, with Saturday being the warmest day. Excessive Heat
Warnings remain in effect for the lower elevations of Yavapai
County as well as the Grand Canyon. Much of the showers and
thunderstorm activity this weekend will be suppressed with the
stable air mass in place, however slight chance for showers and
storms will exist along the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain during
the afternoon hours.

For the start of next week, the ridge begins to degrade and wobble
around the southwestern United States. Monsoonal moisture beings
to surge northward into Arizona, bringing the chance for more
widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of the upcoming
week. Much of the EPS members, and to a lesser extent the GEFS
members, are in agreement with an increase in moisture into
northern Arizona. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures and light
winds are also expected for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions are expected to
prevail for much of the period. Local MVFR conditions will be
possible in showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of a
KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line. More isolated showers and storms will be
possible after 20Z Saturday. Gusty and erratic winds will be
possible in and around thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
Saturday and Sunday, mainly along the Mogollon Rim and
south. Primary hazards will be strong gusty outflow winds, brief
heavy rainfall, and lightning. Temperatures are expected to remain
hot along with light northwest/north winds.

Monday through Wednesday...Shower and thunderstorms chances
increase each afternoon areawide for the start of next week.
Cooler more seasonable temperatures and light winds are also
expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday FOR AZZ037.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006.

&&

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST FRI JUL 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             5 SW PRESCOTT VALLEY    34.56N 112.39W
07/09/2021  E0.50 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
346 PM MST FRI JUL 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 NE PRESCOTT COURTHOUS 34.55N 112.46W
07/09/2021  E0.70 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
511 PM MST Fri Jul 9 2021

AZZ013-016-017-100045-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-White Mountains-Eastern
Mogollon Rim-
511 PM MST Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY FROM
SNOWFLAKE TO SHOW LOW TO PINETOP UNTIL 545 PM MST...

At 510 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Taylor to near Hondah. Movement was west
at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Show Low, Pinetop-lakeside, Taylor, Clay Springs, Shumway, Hondah,
Wagon Wheel, Aripine, Lake Of The Woods, Linden, Pinedale, Fort
Apache Reservation, Snowflake, Pinetop Country Club, Lakeside
Campground, Scott Reservoir Campground, Fool Hollow Lake Campground,
White Mountain Lake and Lewis Canyon Group Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 11055 3403 11009 3410 10988 3459 10989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 069DEG 16KT 3448 11014 3413 10985

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
521 PM MST Fri Jul 9 2021

AZZ008-037-100100-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
521 PM MST Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY IN THE
BAGDAD AREA UNTIL 600 PM MST...

At 520 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Bagdad to near Yava.
Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bagdad and Yava.

LAT...LON 3452 11333 3474 11310 3457 11277 3422 11308
      3441 11334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 037DEG 19KT 3465 11311 3450 11293

JJ