Flash Flood Warning 136, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

039 
WGUS75 KFGZ 312057
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
157 PM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

AZC005-025-312245-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0136.000000T0000Z-210731T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
157 PM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAFAEL FIRE SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 345 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

At 156 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain has moved out of 
the Rafael Fire scar. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen 
across the upper reaches of Sycamore Creek from earlier 
thunderstorms and will cause flooding downstream.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Rafael Fire scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Rafael Fire scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  White Horse Lake Campground and Raymond Boy Scout Camp.

This includes the following swimming holes...
Sycamore Falls, Lower Sycamore Falls "The Golden Pond", Paradise 
Forks and Parsons Spring along Sycamore Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get to higher ground immediately! Flash flood waters and debris will 
inundate recreation trails crossing washes within and downstream of 
Sycamore Canyon and Creek, including Parsons and Dogie Trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 11213 3502 11212 3508 11208 3517 11201
      3508 11186 3498 11196 3494 11199 3491 11202
      3484 11206 3488 11216

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

MCT

585 
WGUS75 KFGZ 312238
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 PM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

AZC005-025-312248-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0136.000000T0000Z-210731T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
338 PM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAFAEL FIRE SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 345 
PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures and use 
caution along Sycamore Creek which will have elevated water levels 
this afternoon.

LAT...LON 3497 11213 3502 11212 3508 11208 3517 11201
      3508 11186 3498 11196 3494 11199 3491 11202
      3484 11206 3488 11216

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
929 AM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm coverage decreases this weekend with even
less activity to begin next week. A warming trend begins early
next week and peaks into mid to late week as high pressure
strengthens.

&&

.UPDATE...No significant updates were made to the forecast this
morning. Less thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon and
evening compared to the last few days with scattered chances
likely. Conditions are a bit more stable with increasing heights
this morning as the ridge of high pressure begins to shift towards
the west. There is also some ongoing shower activity around
Prescott in Yavapai County with much of the area under broken to
overcast cloud cover. This factor could also limit thunderstorms
for this area today.

Better chances for showers and thunderstorms east of I-17 and Hwy
89 on Sunday as the ridge axis transitions over northern Arizona
limiting the flow from the west-southwest. Another round of
scattered activity is likely as lingering low to mid-level
moisture will still be available across the region with PWATs
around 1.0-1.1 inches.

Things quiet down a bit as we begin the work week with high
pressure strengthening towards our west. Less monsoonal flow with
warming temperatures will result.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /143 AM MST/...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are ongoing in central and southern Yavapai County very early this
morning. Expect a very localized flood threat from any of the
heavy thunderstorms for the next few hours.

Another day of scattered thunderstorms will initiate around the
Noon hour MST and bring periods of heavy rainfall to northern
Arizona. The localized threat of flash flooding will persist as a
result. Never drive through flood waters on area roads. Storm
coverage will further decrease into Sunday and to start next week
as high pressure begins to setup over the Southwest. Gusty winds
will be possible near convection next week due to the drier air
mass from northerly flow aloft and higher-based nature of storms.
Suppressed convection and cloud cover will help to increase
temperatures across central and northern Arizona by mid-week.
Areas of heat impacts could again return to lower valleys and
basins south of the Mogollon Rim and within the Grand Canyon by
Wednesday. There is still moderate uncertainty in the max
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures anywhere
from five to ten degrees warmer than this weekend are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will continue mainly southwest of KFLG and KSEZ this morning.
Scattered thunderstorms re-develop area-wide after 18Z. Periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds will occur in and
around thunderstorms. Storm coverage will begin to decrease after
03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms will continue today with
flash flooding and lightning as primary hazards. Lesser storm
coverage is expected for Sunday. Light winds are forecast outside of
thunderstorm activity.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect a drying and warming trend next
week with less thunderstorm coverage each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/NL
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...NL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff