Flash Flood Warning 135, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

650 
WGUS75 KFGZ 312053
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
153 PM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

AZC005-025-312245-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0135.000000T0000Z-210731T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
153 PM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

At 152 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain has moved out of 
the warning area but runoff from earlier heavy rain will cause 
flooding. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding 
is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Dogtown Lake Campground.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Rattlesnake Wash, Sycamore Creek, JD Dam Wash, Dogtown Wash, Meath 
  Wash, Hell Canyon, Cataract Creek, Bear Canyon and West Cataract 
  Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding of washes and creeks will occur, some dirt roads will 
become muddy and impassable. Paved roads and underpasses could 
become flooded as well.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 11234 3523 11223 3524 11219 3520 11208
      3513 11204 3508 11208 3514 11220 3511 11233

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

MCT

854 
WGUS75 KFGZ 312237
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
337 PM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

AZC005-025-312247-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0135.000000T0000Z-210731T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-Yavapai AZ-
337 PM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures and use 
caution near any elevated water levels.

LAT...LON 3515 11234 3523 11223 3524 11219 3520 11208
      3513 11204 3508 11208 3514 11220 3511 11233

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
929 AM MST Sat Jul 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm coverage decreases this weekend with even
less activity to begin next week. A warming trend begins early
next week and peaks into mid to late week as high pressure
strengthens.

&&

.UPDATE...No significant updates were made to the forecast this
morning. Less thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon and
evening compared to the last few days with scattered chances
likely. Conditions are a bit more stable with increasing heights
this morning as the ridge of high pressure begins to shift towards
the west. There is also some ongoing shower activity around
Prescott in Yavapai County with much of the area under broken to
overcast cloud cover. This factor could also limit thunderstorms
for this area today.

Better chances for showers and thunderstorms east of I-17 and Hwy
89 on Sunday as the ridge axis transitions over northern Arizona
limiting the flow from the west-southwest. Another round of
scattered activity is likely as lingering low to mid-level
moisture will still be available across the region with PWATs
around 1.0-1.1 inches.

Things quiet down a bit as we begin the work week with high
pressure strengthening towards our west. Less monsoonal flow with
warming temperatures will result.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /143 AM MST/...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are ongoing in central and southern Yavapai County very early this
morning. Expect a very localized flood threat from any of the
heavy thunderstorms for the next few hours.

Another day of scattered thunderstorms will initiate around the
Noon hour MST and bring periods of heavy rainfall to northern
Arizona. The localized threat of flash flooding will persist as a
result. Never drive through flood waters on area roads. Storm
coverage will further decrease into Sunday and to start next week
as high pressure begins to setup over the Southwest. Gusty winds
will be possible near convection next week due to the drier air
mass from northerly flow aloft and higher-based nature of storms.
Suppressed convection and cloud cover will help to increase
temperatures across central and northern Arizona by mid-week.
Areas of heat impacts could again return to lower valleys and
basins south of the Mogollon Rim and within the Grand Canyon by
Wednesday. There is still moderate uncertainty in the max
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures anywhere
from five to ten degrees warmer than this weekend are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will continue mainly southwest of KFLG and KSEZ this morning.
Scattered thunderstorms re-develop area-wide after 18Z. Periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds will occur in and
around thunderstorms. Storm coverage will begin to decrease after
03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms will continue today with
flash flooding and lightning as primary hazards. Lesser storm
coverage is expected for Sunday. Light winds are forecast outside of
thunderstorm activity.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect a drying and warming trend next
week with less thunderstorm coverage each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/NL
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...NL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff