Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1158 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Fire weather and severe weather are the main forecast challenges.

The warm front continues to lift back northward across South
Dakota late this afternoon. Temperatures have risen back to around
90 along the ND/SD border, but dewpoints are still only around 50.
However, the 60 dewpoints are poised back by Watertown SD now,
extending over toward Pierre. So the front is slow, but it is
still moving northward. With the dry air in place, afternoon
humidity levels have varied from the teens to the 20s. Southeast
winds have picked up to 15 to 25 mph, but really only across
southeast ND. So with these two parameters, near critical fire
weather conditions will continue into the early evening.

The latest high resolution model guidance continues to show storms
developing over north central SD/south central ND in the 7 to 10
pm range. Therefore, the activity may become elevated during the
mid to late evening, north of the surface warm front. This would
favor the Fargo to Bemidji corridor for storms to track after
formation, in the late evening and overnight hours. There is a low
level jet tonight, though it is not all that strong. Some sort of
organized complex is possible, but think the best chances for
severe weather would be during the evening. If a complex does get
going, there could be a severe weather threat during the
overnight hours. There will be more heat and humidity on Tuesday,
with breezy east-southeast winds by afternoon along and west of
the Valley. Did not spend a lot of time looking at thunder chances
for later Tuesday into Tuesday night, but they have been looking
best to the west of the FA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Impactful weather chances will occur a few times this week featuring
tstm risks. Heat will be less of an issue for the most part.

Chances for pcpn and storms enter the picture Wed with moist air and
dewpoints in the 60s result in more substantial CAPES. But there are
still questions about additional forcing mechanisms on Wed and only
general tstms are outlooked at this time. Best chances would be
associated with a frontal boundary looking to push through the
forecast area later Wed into the evening. Thu night into Fri will
offer the next chance for more active weather aided by a more robust
short wave and some low level jet action. A supply of cooler
(relatively) and drier air will filter in later Fri and could well
persist through the weekend.

Temp regime will continue to have above normal readings for the mid
to late week period with highs Wed and Thu above 90 for most spots
before easing back into the 80s for Fri into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Clusters of thunderstorms are impacting southeast ND and west
central MN, with scattered activity further north in northwest MN.
Isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out in northeast ND, but
confidence is lower. Greatest coverage will tend to be through
09Z. Otherwise, VFR should prevail through the TAF period.
Southeast winds become gusty during the afternoon Tuesday
decreasing with sunset.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions will continue into the early
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the early to mid evening, continuing into the overnight hours.
Some storms may be severe this evening, with hail up to 2 inches
in diameter, wind gusts up to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Chances for thunderstorms will exist almost daily. The coverage
and intensity of thunderstorms each day is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

MNZ006-009-080545-
North Beltrami MN-Lake Of The Woods MN-
1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BELTRAMI AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northwestern Red Lake Nation, or 34 miles east of Thief River Falls,
moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ponemah, Upper Red Lake, Thorhult, Shotley, Carmel, Fourtown and
Jelle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4802 9559 4825 9559 4845 9470 4802 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 257DEG 34KT 4815 9543

Lynch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KINDRED                 46.65N 97.02W
06/07/2021                   CASS               ND   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS DOWN IN YARD. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1200 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DAVENPORT               46.71N 97.07W
06/07/2021                   CASS               ND   PUBLIC

            LOST SHINGLES, TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1201 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DAVENPORT               46.71N 97.07W
06/07/2021                   CASS               ND   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM
            DAVENPORT. LOST SHINGLES, TREES AND POWER
            POLES DOWN. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

MNZ029-040-080630-
Grant MN-Wilkin MN-
1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN WILKIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1223 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wendell, or 19 miles south of Fergus Falls, moving east at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Wendell and Norcross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4602 9626 4602 9649 4611 9627 4611 9577
      4593 9577 4593 9576 4576 9576 4576 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0523Z 277DEG 48KT 4600 9613

Lynch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

MNZ024-032-080615-
Wadena MN-Hubbard MN-
1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HUBBARD AND NORTHERN
WADENA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1233 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Menahga, or 32 miles east of Detroit Lakes, moving east at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Park Rapids, Menahga, Sebeka, Akeley, Nevis, Huntersville and
Hubbard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central and west central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4680 9479 4660 9478 4663 9516 4712 9516
      4715 9467 4680 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 276DEG 48KT 4678 9515

Lynch