Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

There is an amplified pattern over the CONUS this afternoon with
a robust upper ridge centered over Utah and a broad trough over
the eastern CONUS. This pattern will ultimately result in a cold
front being pushed southeastward through the FA early tomorrow.

Ahead of the cold front, embedded in a strong southwesterly fetch
off the Gulf, Invest91L will aid in increasing PWs across the CWA.
Diurnally driven convection has already started to occur near a
stalled boundary in central GA and as the afternoon/evening
progresses increased instability accompanied by the aforementioned
increased PWs will result in increased storm coverage and intensity
across central GA area. Storm coverage will also broaden size
across the SE portions of the FA this evening as Invest91L
traverses the area. All of this will combine to create heavy
rainfall, isolated thunderstorms and localized flooding across
the entire CWA. Areas that are already saturated from last nights
storms will be especially prone to localized flooding. Likely PoPs
remain across much of the area through the evening, but were held
onto longer across the far SE CWA to take into account Invest91L.

Overnight and into tomorrow afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms
will continue across the SE as the last of the Invest moves
eastward. Across northern and central GA drier and less hot air
will move in behind the progged cold front. Winds will swing to
the north-northeast and increase while further advecting cooler
air into the region. The dry post-frontal air mass will support
highs tomorrow in the 80s and lows tomorrow night in the 50s.

28

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Thanks to the combined influence of a lifting upper-level trough
pivoting across the Great Lakes and the passage of a dry frontal
boundary, most of the remnant tropical moisture associated with the
tropical disturbance has been scoured off to our south and east to
start the extended. PWATs across much of north and central Georgia
drop to the 0.60-0.90" range, climatologically in the lowest 25% for
this time of year. As a result, the weekend should be quite
pleasant, with dewpoints well below "soupy" levels thanks to a much
drier airmass and afternoon thunderstorm chances significantly
decreased. PoPs at or just under a slight chance are possible on the
far southern fringes of the CWA through the weekend, due to
proximity to the residual moisture gradient from the frontal passage
earlier this week.

As we move into next week, there is virtually no upper-level pattern
present over the southeastern CONUS. The Bermuda high starts to edge
its way over the area late Sunday at the surface, placing the CWA in
a regime of southeasterly flow. Model consensus is that moisture
return doesn't ramp up until the tail end of the extended, aided by
some troughiness aloft over the Great Plains that starts to drift
eastward on Wednesday. The Euro is more bullish than the GFS as far
as the intensity of increasing moisture in the atmospheric column,
so have opted for the middle ground with slight to low-end chance
PoPs filtering back in by midweek.

96

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 137 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1201 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021/

UPDATE...
Morning fog has lifted leaving behind mostly cloudy skies. The
previous assessments for the short term forecast period remains on
track, and no changes were made late this morning. Heavy rainfall
and isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated as a strong fetch
off the Gulf aids in increasing PWs ahead of a cold front progged to
move through the FA this evening. Localized flooding will be possible
especially across areas that are already or continue to be saturated
from last nights heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... GA will remain on the
southern end of an upper trough north of the Great Lakes. A nearly
stationary boundary lingered across north GA this morning.
Residual instability on this boundary could trigger convection at
any time and isolated thunderstorms continued to pop up this
morning. The best time for showers/thunderstorms should be late
morning into the late evening as waves travel along the boundary.
Models indicate another push of deep tropical moisture from the
Gulf today as a weak low pushes from the FL panhandle across
southern GA tonight into Thursday. The deepening Canadian trough
will push another front into GA late tonight and Thursday with
some drying across north GA. Remnants of the surface boundary
combined with weak waves will keep highest pops over central GA on
Thursday. Heavy rain and possible flooding issues could occur
with some of the slower moving storms.

41

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The extended forecast begins with the second drier frontal
boundary that moved into the area in the short term has pushed SE
into South GA. This front will have ushered in a much drier
airmass across north and central GA which will keep most of the
area dry through the weekend. There is expected to be a little bit
of moisture return across south GA Sat/Sun but the deep layer moisture
stays across the northern gulf and northern FL. With its proximity
to central GA could not completely pull PoPs out of the forecast
to keeping just a slight chance of precip in every afternoon
through Tuesday.

01

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage near and around all terminals through evening. Low CIGS
will redevelop tomorrow morning behind a cold front progged to
move SE through the terminals overnight. Winds will remain light
from the east/southeast thru 09Z then shift to the north-northeast
and increase to around 10 kts behind the front.

//ATL
Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements except low CIGS
tomorrow morning. Low confidence on timing for low CIGS tomorrow.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  84  59  84 /  40  20  10   0
Atlanta         67  84  59  84 /  40  10  10   5
Blairsville     60  78  50  78 /  30  10  10   0
Cartersville    65  82  55  83 /  30  10  10   0
Columbus        69  86  61  86 /  40  20  10   5
Gainesville     67  82  58  81 /  30  20  10   0
Macon           69  87  61  86 /  50  30  10   5
Rome            66  85  56  85 /  20  10  10   0
Peachtree City  67  84  57  84 /  40  10  10   5
Vidalia         70  85  65  86 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1030 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091430-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1030 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. Some
of these storms could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be a hazard, potentially leading
to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will be confined to portions of central
Georgia for Thursday through Tuesday. Storms will occur primarily
in the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could produce
locally heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
532 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ019-030-082215-
Polk GA-Floyd GA-
532 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Floyd and
northwestern Polk Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 531 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms extended from west of
Coosa through northwest of Etna, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, up to penny sized hail, frequent
         lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Rome, Cedartown, Cave Spring, Etna, Lindale and Coosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8540 3429 8539 3430 8538 3431 8538
      3434 8536 3425 8510 3400 8521 3399 8540
      3428 8546
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 299DEG 14KT 3428 8541 3416 8551 3410 8590

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
605 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ021>023-025-032>035-082300-
Hall GA-Jackson GA-North Fulton GA-Barrow GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-
Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
605 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Cherokee, northern Barrow, Forsyth, northeastern Cobb, northern
Gwinnett, southern Hall, southwestern Jackson and northeastern Fulton
Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 603 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms, with locally heavy
rain, extended from near Woodstock to Alpharetta, Cumming, Suwanee,
Auburn and Winder, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
         street flooding, especially in poor drainage areas, and
         rising water on creeks and streams.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Lawrenceville, Winder, Jefferson, Cumming, Sandy
Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Milton, Duluth, Woodstock,
Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Buford, Braselton, Auburn, Flowery Branch,
Dacula and Oakwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8423 3424 8377 3418 8355 3406 8349
      3398 8368 3397 8387 3399 8437 3411 8455
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 259DEG 13KT 3411 8445 3412 8417 3407 8395 3404
8368

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
608 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ007-013-014-082300-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Pickens GA-
608 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gilmer, northwestern
Dawson and Pickens Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 608 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was southwest of Ellijay,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Ellijay, East Ellijay, Talking Rock, Amicalola Falls State
Park, Sequoyah Lake, Talona, Marblehill, Fausett Lake, Len Foote Hike
Inn, Cartecay, Pisgah, Blaine, Lake Tamarack, Cherry Log, Roy, Hinton
and Roundtop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8425 3467 8425 3467 8424 3462 8420
      3441 8426 3446 8463 3463 8465 3481 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 259DEG 13KT 3457 8458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
657 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ006>008-012>015-020-021-082345-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Union GA-Cherokee GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-
Pickens GA-Lumpkin GA-Fannin GA-
657 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Cherokee,
Lumpkin, southern Gilmer, Dawson, east central Gordon, Pickens,
southwestern Union, southeastern Fannin and northeastern Bartow
Counties through 745 PM EDT...

At 655 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms extended from Salacoa
Valley to Talking Rock and Amicalola Falls State Park, moving east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dahlonega, Jasper, Dawsonville, Ball Ground, Nelson, Talking Rock,
Dougherty, Amicalola Falls State Park, Sequoyah Lake, Juno, Fausett
Lake, Len Foote Hike Inn, Cartecay, Talmadge, Tate, Stover Creek
Shelter, Turners Corner, Hinton, McKee and Talona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3466 8387 3461 8387 3443 8396 3440 8399
      3433 8416 3433 8426 3431 8426 3435 8471
      3455 8467 3466 8442 3470 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 264DEG 22KT 3455 8426 3448 8453 3439 8461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E ALPHARETTA          34.08N  84.28W
09/08/2021                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING OVER ACADEMY STREET. ROADWAY TEMPORARILY
            CLOSED AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100596

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
744 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ013>015-021>023-090030-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-Pickens GA-Lumpkin GA-
744 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Cherokee, northern
Forsyth, southern Lumpkin, Dawson, northwestern Hall and southeastern
Pickens Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 742 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Waleska to Ball Ground and Juno, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
         very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Canton, Cumming, Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Woodstock,
Holly Springs, Ball Ground, Nelson, Clermont, Waleska, Free Home,
Buffington, Dougherty, Hickory Flat, Drew, Kellogg Creek, Coal
Mountain, Hightower and Juno.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 8386 3453 8383 3452 8384 3451 8384
      3450 8379 3438 8374 3423 8400 3419 8433
      3416 8436 3413 8436 3411 8442 3410 8442
      3409 8466 3435 8464 3439 8441 3453 8420
      3459 8400 3461 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 278DEG 15KT 3446 8409 3429 8439 3426 8462 3418
8466

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH