Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
905 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.UPDATE...
Previous changes to the forecast are on track. Did update the
winds a bit for diminishing sustained speeds/gusts. Have also made
some adjustments to cancel southern portions of the Flash Flood
Watch. Will keep the far north in the watch until the rainfall
ends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 729 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

UPDATE...
Remnant low from Ida is slowly moving east along the eastern TN/AL
state line. Instability remains minimal this evening, and rainfall
rates have been more light to moderate. Updated pops to reflect
current trends. Will keep the Flash Flood Watch for now, but may
end up canceling early. Also updated hourly dewpoint and temps
grids. Winds have also diminished quite a bit this evening and
updated grids to reflect the current obs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Remnants of Ida circulating over the TN Valley this afternoon and
should drift northeast along the Appalachians overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms should gradually diminish during the evening but
will keep pops overnight...with highest pops lingering northeast.
As the remnant low moves into the central Appalachians on
Wednesday...decreasing shear and instability should support only
slight chance/chance pops for much of the area. Increasing northwest
flow aloft should help the forecast area dry out somewhat for
Wednesday night...so have pops diminishing to less than 20 percent
across the area. Radar trends show a temporary break for much of the
area this afternoon...but stronger convection development seems to
limited at this time. The Flash Flood Watch has been left as is.

41

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

By Thursday morning, the trough associated with the remnants of Ida
has shifted off to our north and east and taken any remaining
tropical moisture with it. A comparatively much drier airmass pushes
south and overspreads our area by Friday as the fringes of an upper-
level ridge centered over the Great Plains edges further eastward.
PWATs drop to as low as 0-60-0.70", in the lowest 10%
climatologically for this time of year. PoPs are effectively effaced
as the ridge continues to broaden, preserving the bubble of dry air
over the southeast US. We remain in a subsequent regime of northwest
flow for the remainder of the week and throughout the weekend.

Beginning early Sunday, models hint at a moisture gradient/frontal
boundary advecting into CWA from the northeast. The Euro favors a
stronger, more persistent gradient, while the GFS tapers its
influence off more quickly before dissipating early Monday morning.
As a result, slight to low-end chance PoPs filter back into the
forecast for the start of the work week.

96

AVIATION...

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
MVFR cigs should give way to IFR cigs this evening. Do expect
clearing by late tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain on the west
side. Gusts have mostly diminished but an occasional gust to
around 15kt cannot be ruled out for the next couple of hours.
Light shra possible through 02-03z. Pops too low to mention
overnight.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  83  66  86 /  80  30  20  10
Atlanta         70  82  66  85 /  70  30  20  10
Blairsville     66  76  59  80 /  90  50  20  10
Cartersville    69  82  63  84 /  70  30  20   5
Columbus        71  88  68  87 /  70  30  20   5
Gainesville     69  81  65  84 /  80  30  20  10
Macon           72  88  67  89 /  60  30  20  10
Rome            70  84  64  85 /  80  30  20   5
Peachtree City  70  84  65  85 /  60  30  20  10
Vidalia         74  87  71  90 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for the following
zones: Catoosa...Dade...Fannin...Gilmer...Lumpkin...Murray...
Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
659 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-012300-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
659 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of north Georgia
through tonight.

The remnants of Ida will continue to bring showers to the area
tonight. A few showers could produce brief gusty winds. Additional
rainfall amounts of up to one inch are possible. An elevated
flood threat will exist through Wednesday on creeks and streams
that have received runoff from heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Storm chances diminish Wednesday but ongoing flood issues may be
occurring due to today's heavy rain.

The next chance for scattered thunderstorms return to parts of the
area by the end of this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
618 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W DAVISBORO           32.99N  82.70W
08/31/2021                   WASHINGTON         GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED AT SUN HILL GRANGE RD AND NEW RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100580

KMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
710 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ102-103-312345-
Stewart GA-Webster GA-
710 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN STEWART
AND WESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 710 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Westville, or near
Lumpkin...moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lumpkin, Preston, Richland, Weston, Seminole, Troutman, Kimbrough,
Westville, Centerpoint and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8480 3193 8480 3192 8481 3193 8490
      3206 8496 3220 8460 3219 8459 3219 8457
      3196 8448 3194 8465 3193 8468 3192 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 252DEG 21KT 3201 8484

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
751 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ071-010015-
Monroe GA-
751 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONROE
COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 751 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Brent, or near
Forsyth...moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Forsyth and Brent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3294 8402 3298 8404 3310 8386 3300 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 244DEG 20KT 3296 8400

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
758 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ103-104-010030-
Sumter GA-Webster GA-
758 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEBSTER AND
WEST CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

At 758 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Preston...moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Preston, Plains, Weston, Friendship, Centerpoint and Dumas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3194 8460 3211 8461 3214 8448 3213 8443
      3215 8443 3216 8436 3209 8427 3199 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 262DEG 19KT 3204 8452

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
830 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ104-010100-
Sumter GA-
830 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SUMTER COUNTY
THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

At 830 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Maddox, or near
Americus...moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Americus, Plains, Leslie, De Soto, Desoto, Sumter, Lamar, Croxton
Crossroads, New Era, Huntington, Pennington, Friendship, Maddox and
Methvins.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3197 8444 3204 8444 3204 8443 3217 8443
      3217 8428 3216 8428 3217 8427 3216 8426
      3216 8405 3192 8406 3192 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 269DEG 26KT 3202 8431

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
928 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

GAZ105-010200-
Dooly GA-
928 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF DOOLY COUNTY THROUGH
1000 PM EDT...

At 928 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lilly, or near
Vienna...moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Vienna, Unadilla, Byromville, Pinehurst, Lilly and Tippettville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3219 8396 3229 8369 3229 8361 3225 8361
      3225 8362 3224 8362 3224 8361 3209 8361
      3203 8386 3203 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 248DEG 27KT 3214 8387

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH