Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
834 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.UPDATE...

00z Aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021/

..Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

High pressure will remain just off the Atlantic. This will continue
to push hot and humid air into the SE. Heat indices today, while
not reaching advisory status, will still likely be close to triple
digits for much of the area. This will provide the fuel to continue
the afternoon thunderstorms threat for today and tomorrow. Bulk
shear will remain almost non existent given the weak upper level
flow which will continue to prevent widespread severe weather, but
given today and tomorrow's high dew points and hot weather a few of
the these pulse storms could have severe wind gusts along with
frequent lightning.

Surface winds will maintain a westerly component, but will be light
and variable at times for most of the day. To sum things up, it's
August in Georgia.

Vaughn

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Tropical Depression Fred continues to move up the NNE coastline
of Cuba and is forecast by the NHC to slide up the western Florida
peninsula coastline before making landfall in the Central Florida
panhandle. Models are fairly consistent with the storm track up
until that point with several hurricane models now less optimistic
about storm intensity, though this still remains one of the
hardest things to forecast about a tropical system so that's very
subject to change. Major discrepancies come once the storm makes
landfall, with most models steering it along the edge of a
developing upper-level trough in the Mississippi Valley. This
trough would act to direct the center of the tropical cyclone path
around the Columbus and Atlanta areas, with the highest impacts
to the right of the track, affectionately call the 'dirty' side of
the storm, where rainfall values could be as high as 2-4 inches
with locally higher amounts and some portions of central Georgia
seeing wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Noticeably, the GFS is
not one of these solutions which instead greatly weakens the storm
and pushes it further west. This all to say, there's still a
great amount of uncertainty with this system so we ask our
audience to please current with the latest information as it
comes available.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Some lingering SHRA/TSRA chances here in the next hour or two with
cu near 5 kft, then should be mostly clear overnight with some FEW
cirrus. Any decreased morning vsbys possible for areas that get
some locally heavy rain in next few hours. SHRA/TSRA chances again
tomorrow after 18z with SCT cu field 3500-4500 ft. Winds calm to
light VRB tonight (other than higher VRB gusts with any TSRA
early). Light west winds for some northern sites Friday, could
stay light VRB for southern sites.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on TSRA coverage this evening.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  50
Atlanta         73  91  72  92 /  20  40  30  60
Blairsville     67  86  67  86 /  20  50  40  80
Cartersville    72  92  72  93 /  20  40  30  70
Columbus        74  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  50
Gainesville     72  91  72  91 /  20  40  30  60
Macon           73  93  72  94 /  20  20  20  30
Rome            72  92  73  93 /  20  40  30  70
Peachtree City  72  90  72  92 /  20  40  30  60
Vidalia         74  93  73  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once again expected
this afternoon throughout the forecast area. Some storms may
become strong to severe with isolated damaging wind gusts, locally
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day Friday
through Wednesday, most numerous during the afternoons and evenings.
The primary hazards with any thunderstorm will be heavy rain, gusty
winds and lightning. Although no widespread severe weather is
expected at this time, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out
with damaging winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty still remains, it is likely that a tropical
low will impact the southeastern U.S., including portions of central
and north Georgia, early next week. Please continue to monitor the
forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
859 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ067-068-130130-
Meriwether GA-Pike GA-
859 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MERIWETHER AND WESTERN PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

At 859 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hilltop, or 7 miles
west of Zebulon. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Gay, Hollonville and Hilltop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3316 8457 3320 8445 3312 8442 3308 8437
      3302 8447 3307 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 069DEG 4KT 3311 8446

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
928 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ053-056-067-068-130200-
Coweta GA-Spalding GA-Meriwether GA-Pike GA-
928 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
SPALDING, NORTHEASTERN MERIWETHER, NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN
COWETA COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 928 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Alvaton, or 12 miles
northwest of Zebulon...moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Senoia, Haralson, Gay, Alvaton, Digbey, Hollonville and Wooster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3333 8462 3327 8450 3326 8450 3326 8448
      3324 8444 3308 8447 3309 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 106DEG 11KT 3319 8453

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
930 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ055-057-130200-
Clayton GA-Henry GA-
930 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL HENRY
AND CENTRAL CLAYTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 930 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Jonesboro...moving
west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jonesboro, Stockbridge, Riverdale, Hampton, Morrow, Lovejoy, Lake
Spivey, Bonanza and Irondale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3358 8443 3356 8424 3339 8428 3344 8440
      3345 8440 3345 8439 3346 8438 3348 8439
      3350 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 106DEG 11KT 3350 8433

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
933 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ045-046-130200-
Rockdale GA-DeKalb GA-
933 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF ROCKDALE AND
SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 933 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Conyers...moving west
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Conyers, Lithonia, Lakeview Estates, Magnet, Milstead, Arabia
Mountain, Redan and Panola Mountain State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3376 8413 3372 8394 3359 8398 3355 8403
      3364 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 106DEG 11KT 3364 8406

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
949 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ066-130230-
Troup GA-
949 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF TROUP COUNTY THROUGH
1030 PM EDT...

At 949 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Harrisonville, or 7
miles north of LaGrange...moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
LaGrange, West Point, Hogansville, Mountville, Cannonville, Louise,
Harrisonville, Hillcrest, Big Springs, Wares Crossroads, Jones
Crossroads, Baughs Crossroads, Smiths Crossroad and Long Cane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3315 8517 3316 8512 3318 8512 3318 8511
      3320 8511 3320 8510 3317 8508 3322 8494
      3322 8492 3319 8487 3287 8490 3286 8511
      3287 8511 3287 8518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 118DEG 16KT 3315 8500

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
955 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ045-130230-
DeKalb GA-
955 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF DEKALB COUNTY
THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

At 954 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Belmont, or 8 miles
southeast of Decatur...moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Decatur, Clarkston, Stone Mountain, Avondale Estates,
Lithonia, Pine Lake, Tucker, Belvedere Park, Candler-Mcafee, North
Decatur, Belmont, Arabia Mountain, Redan, Scottdale, Panthersville,
East Lake, Gresham Park and Snapfinger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3388 8423 3375 8403 3372 8406 3362 8411
      3364 8415 3364 8416 3365 8420 3364 8423
      3363 8423 3364 8425 3365 8425 3365 8428
      3368 8435 3370 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 118DEG 16KT 3371 8416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...50MPH