Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1139 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated previous 00z Aviation discussion below.

Persistent now mainly outflow driven cluster of convection
propagating northward extending near the Atlanta metro and
westward. Intensity has waned some but cannot rule out a few
stronger cells going into the early morning hours. These cells
have largely been frequent lightning producers but could also have
some strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. The rainfall may
focus fog development later in the overnight so will need to watch
trends accordingly but for now have patchy fog mention in grids.
Otherwise minor adjustments made and previous discussion
follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 834 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021/

UPDATE...

00z Aviation update below.

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021/

.Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

High pressure will remain just off the Atlantic. This will continue
to push hot and humid air into the SE. Heat indices today, while
not reaching advisory status, will still likely be close to triple
digits for much of the area. This will provide the fuel to continue
the afternoon thunderstorms threat for today and tomorrow. Bulk
shear will remain almost non existent given the weak upper level
flow which will continue to prevent widespread severe weather, but
given today and tomorrow's high dew points and hot weather a few of
the these pulse storms could have severe wind gusts along with
frequent lightning.

Surface winds will maintain a westerly component, but will be light
and variable at times for most of the day. To sum things up, it's
August in Georgia.

Vaughn

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Tropical Depression Fred continues to move up the NNE coastline
of Cuba and is forecast by the NHC to slide up the western Florida
peninsula coastline before making landfall in the Central Florida
panhandle. Models are fairly consistent with the storm track up
until that point with several hurricane models now less optimistic
about storm intensity, though this still remains one of the
hardest things to forecast about a tropical system so that's very
subject to change. Major discrepancies come once the storm makes
landfall, with most models steering it along the edge of a
developing upper-level trough in the Mississippi Valley. This
trough would act to direct the center of the tropical cyclone path
around the Columbus and Atlanta areas, with the highest impacts
to the right of the track, affectionately call the 'dirty' side of
the storm, where rainfall values could be as high as 2-4 inches
with locally higher amounts and some portions of central Georgia
seeing wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Noticeably, the GFS is
not one of these solutions which instead greatly weakens the storm
and pushes it further west. This all to say, there's still a
great amount of uncertainty with this system so we ask our
audience to please current with the latest information as it
comes available.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...

Update to below...the persistent TSRA has allow for extension of
the mentioned tempo group until 04z near the KATL sites but could
warrant until 05z too. Will be adding a tempo for some reduced
vsbys near 4SM (could be lower) given fog potential in the 08-12z
window.

Previous discussion...

Some lingering SHRA/TSRA chances here in the next hour or two with
cu near 5 kft, then should be mostly clear overnight with some FEW
cirrus. Any decreased morning vsbys possible for areas that get
some locally heavy rain in next few hours. SHRA/TSRA chances again
tomorrow after 18z with SCT cu field 3500-4500 ft. Winds calm to
light VRB tonight (other than higher VRB gusts with any TSRA
early). Light west winds for some northern sites Friday, could
stay light VRB for southern sites.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on TSRA coverage this evening.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  50
Atlanta         73  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  60
Blairsville     67  86  67  86 /  20  50  40  80
Cartersville    71  92  72  93 /  30  40  30  70
Columbus        74  92  74  93 /  60  30  20  50
Gainesville     72  91  72  91 /  30  40  30  60
Macon           73  93  72  94 /  20  20  20  30
Rome            72  92  73  93 /  20  40  30  70
Peachtree City  72  90  72  92 /  60  40  30  60
Vidalia         74  93  73  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn/Baker
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1015 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-140215-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1015 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and
into the early morning hours throughout the forecast area. Some
storms may become strong to severe with isolated damaging wind
gusts, locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day Friday
through Wednesday, most numerous during the afternoons and evenings.
The primary hazards with any thunderstorm will be heavy rain, gusty
winds and lightning. Although no widespread severe weather is
expected at this time, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out
with damaging winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty still remains, it is likely that a tropical
low will impact the southeastern U.S., including portions of central
and north Georgia, early next week. Please continue to monitor the
forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
955 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ045-130230-
DeKalb GA-
955 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF DEKALB COUNTY
THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

At 954 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Belmont, or 8 miles
southeast of Decatur...moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Decatur, Clarkston, Stone Mountain, Avondale Estates,
Lithonia, Pine Lake, Tucker, Belvedere Park, Candler-Mcafee, North
Decatur, Belmont, Arabia Mountain, Redan, Scottdale, Panthersville,
East Lake, Gresham Park and Snapfinger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3388 8423 3375 8403 3372 8406 3362 8411
      3364 8415 3364 8416 3365 8420 3364 8423
      3363 8423 3364 8425 3365 8425 3365 8428
      3368 8435 3370 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 118DEG 16KT 3371 8416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1000 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ044-054-055-130230-
Fayette GA-Clayton GA-South Fulton GA-
1000 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FAYETTE, SOUTH CENTRAL FULTON AND CLAYTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM
EDT...

At 1000 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Riverdale, or near
Jonesboro. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Fayetteville, Jonesboro, East Point, Union City, Forest Park,
Riverdale, College Park, Morrow, Lovejoy, Hapeville, Lake City,
Hartsfield-Jackson Airport, Bonanza, Jw Smith Reservoir and Irondale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3358 8451 3368 8445 3361 8432 3343 8432
      3343 8435 3341 8436 3341 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 110DEG 3KT 3356 8438

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ042-052-053-130315-
Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CARROLL, NORTHEASTERN HEARD AND NORTHWESTERN COWETA COUNTIES THROUGH
1115 PM EDT...

At 1040 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Handy, or 8 miles
west of Newnan...moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Newnan, Whitesburg, Centralhatchee, Roopville, Plant Yates, Lowell,
Plant Wansley, Arnco-Sargent, Powers Crossroads, Seaton Lake and
Handy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3339 8481 3328 8498 3344 8517 3357 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 145DEG 6KT 3340 8495

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1051 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ033-044-130315-
North Fulton GA-South Fulton GA-
1051 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL FULTON
COUNTY THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

At 1051 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lakewood Park, or
over Atlanta...moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, East Point, College Park, Hapeville, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta,
Midtown, West End, Virginia Highland, Sweet Auburn, Turner Field,
Piedmont Park, Bankhead, Cascade Heights, Lakewood Park, Atlantic
Station and Little Five Points.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3375 8456 3388 8435 3365 8435 3365 8444
      3364 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 145DEG 6KT 3371 8438

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1149 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ032-033-043-044-130415-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-South Fulton GA-
1149 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN COBB,
NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND CENTRAL FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM
EDT...

At 1149 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sweetwater Creek
State Park, or 7 miles east of Douglasville...moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Douglasville, Smyrna, Powder Springs, Austell, Lithia
Springs, Sweetwater Creek State Park, Six Flags Over Georgia,
Sandtown, Mableton and Vinings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3390 8463 3388 8448 3368 8449 3367 8468
      3379 8473 3387 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 173DEG 11KT 3373 8461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1215 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

GAZ031-032-043-130445-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Paulding GA-
1215 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
PAULDING, SOUTHWESTERN COBB AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES THROUGH
1245 AM EDT...

At 1215 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Austell, or 7 miles
northeast of Douglasville...moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Marietta, Douglasville, Dallas, Powder Springs, Austell, Hiram,
Lithia Springs, Lost Mountain Park, Jim R Miller Park and Mableton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3378 8458 3376 8473 3392 8481 3396 8469
      3395 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 173DEG 11KT 3383 8467

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH