Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

High pressure will remain just off the Atlantic. This will continue
to push hot and humid air into the SE. Heat indices today, while
not reaching advisory status, will still likely be close to triple
digits for much of the area. This will provide the fuel to continue
the afternoon thunderstorms threat for today and tomorrow. Bulk
shear will remain almost non existent given the weak upper level
flow which will continue to prevent widespread severe weather, but
given today and tomorrow's high dew points and hot weather a few of
the these pulse storms could have severe wind gusts along with
frequent lightning.

Surface winds will maintain a westerly component, but will be light
and variable at times for most of the day. To sum things up, it's
August in Georgia.

Vaughn

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Tropical Depression Fred continues to move up the NNE coastline
of Cuba and is forecast by the NHC to slide up the western Florida
peninsula coastline before making landfall in the Central Florida
panhandle. Models are fairly consistent with the storm track up
until that point with several hurricane models now less optimistic
about storm intensity, though this still remains one of the
hardest things to forecast about a tropical system so that's very
subject to change. Major discrepancies come once the storm makes
landfall, with most models steering it along the edge of a
developing upper-level trough in the Mississippi Valley. This
trough would act to direct the center of the tropical cyclone path
around the Columbus and Atlanta areas, with the highest impacts
to the right of the track, affectionately call the 'dirty' side of
the storm, where rainfall values could be as high as 2-4 inches
with locally higher amounts and some portions of central Georgia
seeing wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Noticeably, the GFS is
not one of these solutions which instead greatly weakens the storm
and pushes it further west. This all to say, there's still a
great amount of uncertainty with this system so we ask our
audience to please current with the latest information as it
comes available.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR cigs will remain in place today and for the rest of the
afternoon with a SCT150 ceiling as prevailing. Winds will continue
to have a westerly component although they may become VRB003 for
some time. Afternoon TSRA are covered with a TEMPO from 19/23Z but
may require some adjustment as H-RES models have had a difficult
time lately picking up on initiation time.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to high on TSRA timing.
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  50
Atlanta         73  91  72  92 /  20  40  30  60
Blairsville     67  86  67  86 /  20  50  40  80
Cartersville    72  92  72  93 /  20  40  30  70
Columbus        74  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  50
Gainesville     72  91  72  91 /  20  40  30  60
Macon           73  93  72  94 /  20  20  20  30
Rome            72  92  73  93 /  20  40  30  70
Peachtree City  72  90  72  92 /  20  40  30  60
Vidalia         74  93  73  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once again expected
this afternoon throughout the forecast area. Some storms may
become strong to severe with isolated damaging wind gusts, locally
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day Friday
through Wednesday, most numerous during the afternoons and evenings.
The primary hazards with any thunderstorm will be heavy rain, gusty
winds and lightning. Although no widespread severe weather is
expected at this time, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out
with damaging winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty still remains, it is likely that a tropical
low will impact the southeastern U.S., including portions of central
and north Georgia, early next week. Please continue to monitor the
forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1222 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E ESOM HILL           33.94N  85.31W
08/11/2021                   POLK               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF JOHNSON LAKE RD AND
            LIME BRANCH RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100507

NM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1229 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N CEDARTOWN           34.05N  85.26W
08/11/2021                   POLK               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NORTH
            COLLEGE DR AND CHEROKEE RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100508

NM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1238 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N CEDARTOWN           34.09N  85.24W
08/11/2021                   POLK               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ADAMS RD AND LEWIS
            RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100509

NM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
349 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HARRISONVILLE       33.15N  84.98W
08/11/2021                   TROUP              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ONTO POWER LINES IN THE 800 BLOCK OF
            MOBLEY BRIDGE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100510

RWILLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE HOGANSVILLE       33.20N  84.91W
08/11/2021                   TROUP              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A METAL SHED WAS LIFTED AND BLOWN ACROSS A YARD ON
            RALLS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100511

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
430 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GAZ052-066-122100-
Troup GA-Heard GA-
430 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN HEARD
AND NORTH CENTRAL TROUP COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 430 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Harrisonville, or near
Franklin. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Hillcrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3321 8513 3326 8507 3321 8496 3312 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 297DEG 2KT 3321 8506

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH