Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
345 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Current mosaic radar loop shows some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing over the area. Moist southerly
flow has set up across the region as the next wave is moving
northward out of the gulf across MS/AL. Things are still fairly
stable across the state as a Bermuda ridge just off the eastern
seaboard has pushed in across the area from the east. Expecting a
bit more diurnally driven instability to develop Monday as the
ridge does weaken a bit. PW values remain in the 1.75 to 2 inch
range through the short term so any storms that do develop are
expected to drop a decent amount of precip. In general, conditions
remain in place to keep likely pops across the area Today and
again Monday during the daylight hours with chance pops at night.
Layers of mid/high clouds and east to southeast winds should help
keep max temperatures in the low 80s far north to low 90s east
central Monday. Lows tonight and Monday night will dip into the
60s to near 70.

01

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
For the first part of the long term period, the meandering upper-
level cut-off low (located roughly over MO/IA/IL at the start of the
period) will transition to an open wave and shift eastward.
Meanwhile, mid- and low-level southerly flow will continue to advect
Gulf moisture across the CWA, keeping PWATs around 1.5 to 2.0 inches
(around the maximum moving average per FFC sounding climatology). Am
maintaining high-end chance to likely PoPs for Tuesday, Wednesday,
and Thursday given the upper-level troughing and tropical air mass
in place. The focus for the precip over these three days will be
across northern GA, closer to the weak upper-level low.
Specifically, WPC QPF through the long term period shows a rainfall
maximum over the higher elevations of north GA. Day 3-7 storm total
rainfall is forecast to be 1.0 to 2.0 inches across the higher
terrain, with 0.25 to 0.75 inch across the rest of the CWA.

The GFS and ECMWF signal a transition to northwesterly upper flow
over the course of Friday and Saturday, with upper disturbances
diving southeastward and potentially impacting the CWA. The timing
of said disturbances, however, varies amongst the models. Given this
is Day 6/Day 7 and uncertainty is quite high, am capping PoPs at
high-end chance to low-end likely across northern GA.

No organized or widespread severe weather is forecast at this time,
though a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out each day.
The main threats with storms each day will be frequent lightning,
gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. High and low temps will
remain at least a few degrees above average through the period given
the warm, soupy air mass in place.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms popping up across the area
Convective coverage will increase over the next few hours and
expecting the TAF sites to start seeing precip by 20z. The storms
should calm down after sunset then pick back up again Monday
afternoon. Winds expected to stay mainly out of the S to SE in the
5-10kt range. Will see some higher gust in and around any
stronger storms. Ceilings starting off in the VFR range but will
see some MVFR ceilings with the afternoon convection today and
monday afternoon. Ceilings expected to fall into the IFR range
over night then lift back into the VFR range by 15-17z Monday.
Will see some patchy fog develop tonight so may see some MVFR
VSBYs across the area. The fog will dissipate shortly after
sunrise.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  67  83 /  50  80  50  80
Atlanta         69  81  68  83 /  50  80  50  80
Blairsville     65  76  64  78 /  50  80  60  80
Cartersville    68  81  67  84 /  50  80  50  80
Columbus        70  84  69  88 /  50  80  50  60
Gainesville     68  79  67  80 /  50  80  60  80
Macon           69  85  68  88 /  50  70  50  60
Rome            69  81  68  85 /  60  80  50  80
Peachtree City  68  81  67  85 /  50  80  50  70
Vidalia         72  86  70  88 /  50  70  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
727 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly over middle Georgia, will
gradually diminish this evening. Locally heavy rain, lightning, and
brief wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be the primary threats with
the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There will be a chance of thunderstorms each day through
Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on any of these
days; however, no organized or widespread severe weather is
expected. The primary threat from any thunderstorms will be
frequent lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
546 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

GAZ108>111-062215-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-
546 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER...TELFAIR...
EASTERN WILCOX AND SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 545 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Browning to near Temperance to near Horse Creek Wma...and moving
north at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
McRae, Abbeville, Helena, Lumber City, Milan, Rhine, Scotland,
Chauncey, Jacksonville, Union, Towns, Horse Creek Wma, Spring Hill,
Antioch Church, Jay Bird Springs, Temperance, Browning, China Hill,
Five Points and Achord.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3183 8308 3184 8316 3185 8318 3185 8337
      3212 8332 3218 8302 3215 8299 3216 8296
      3204 8263 3189 8271 3185 8279 3184 8278
      3182 8284 3178 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 191DEG 20KT 3190 8329 3192 8307 3184 8285

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
556 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

GAZ078-089-090-062230-
Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Muscogee GA-
556 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE...SOUTHEASTERN
HARRIS AND MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 556 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Sand Hill, or near
Cusseta...moving north at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Columbus, Cusseta, North Fort Benning, Bibb City, Upatoi, Laurel
Hills, Green Island Hills, Vista Terrace, Columbus Metropolitan
Airport, Rose Hill, Eelbeck/West Fort Benning, Benning Hills,
Avondale, Benning Park, Fortson, Saint Marys Hills, Edgewood, Flat
Rock, Highland Park and Christopher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3262 8507 3263 8469 3256 8469 3256 8467
      3252 8469 3253 8464 3249 8464 3249 8466
      3244 8466 3230 8471 3232 8495 3239 8498
      3239 8497 3241 8498 3242 8496 3244 8497
      3245 8500 3252 8500 3256 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 188DEG 27KT 3239 8484

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
609 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

GAZ097-107>111-062245-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Wilcox GA-Laurens GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
609 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER...TELFAIR...NORTHERN
WILCOX...SOUTHERN LAURENS...DODGE AND SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Ocmulgee Banks to Chauncey to near Towns...and moving north at 20
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
McRae, Eastman, Alamo, Helena, Lumber City, Milan, Scotland,
Chauncey, Union, Towns, Gresston, Spring Hill, Plainfield, Cedar
Creek, Ocmulgee Banks, Jay Bird Springs, Five Points, Achord, Little
Ocmulgee State Park and Godwinsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3200 8306 3209 8344 3230 8344 3230 8338
      3227 8335 3230 8331 3230 8309 3212 8262
      3210 8261 3190 8270 3186 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 174DEG 18KT 3220 8339 3213 8305 3195 8278

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

GAZ096-097-107-109>112-062300-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-
Pulaski GA-
631 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER...NORTHEASTERN TELFAIR...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN LAURENS...SOUTHERN BLECKLEY...NORTHERN
DODGE AND NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 631 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from Mobley
Crossing to near Cadwell to near Lumber City...moving north at 25
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
McRae, Cochran, Eastman, Alamo, Mount Vernon, Helena, Chester, Lumber
City, Glenwood, Uvalda, Dexter, Cadwell, Ailey, Scotland, Rentz,
Alston, Towns, Dubois, Spring Hill and Plainfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3196 8278 3203 8285 3217 8304 3221 8344
      3246 8342 3245 8292 3234 8274 3231 8273
      3230 8268 3215 8246 3197 8248 3196 8250
      3195 8249 3196 8257 3194 8258 3192 8263
      3192 8268 3190 8269 3186 8276 3186 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 200DEG 21KT 3230 8342 3227 8299 3194 8261

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
657 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

GAZ083-084-095>097-107-109-062330-
Wilkinson GA-Houston GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Twiggs GA-
Pulaski GA-
657 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WILKINSON...EASTERN
HOUSTON...LAURENS...BLECKLEY...NORTHWESTERN DODGE...TWIGGS AND
NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 657 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Kathleen to near Goldsboro to near Barnhill...and moving north at 30
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Cochran, Jeffersonville, Warner Robins, East Dublin, Chester,
Dexter, Dudley, Cadwell, Rentz, Danville, Montrose, Allentown, Robins
Air Force Base, Marion, Tarversville, Roddy, Nicklesville, Rowland
and Minter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3237 8357 3267 8363 3266 8360 3267 8361
      3274 8321 3263 8274 3229 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 177DEG 27KT 3249 8355 3251 8321 3235 8273

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
733 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

GAZ071>073-081>084-094-095-070000-
Peach GA-Wilkinson GA-Monroe GA-Baldwin GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-
Crawford GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
733 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PEACH...WESTERN
WILKINSON...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE...SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN...BIBB...
NORTHERN HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...JONES AND TWIGGS COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 732 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Skipperton to near Dry Branch to near McIntyre...moving north at 30
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Macon, Milledgeville, Gray, Jeffersonville, Irwinton, Warner Robins,
Centerville, Byron, Gordon, Ivey, McIntyre, Payne, Payne City,
Midway-Hardwick, Marion, Postell, Wayside, Griswoldville, Wesleyan
and Skipperton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3285 8391 3308 8373 3306 8319 3277 8309
      3261 8338 3265 8375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 153DEG 25KT 3274 8374 3282 8347 3288 8316

WIND...40MPH