Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
345 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Current mosaic radar loop shows some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing over the area. Moist southerly
flow has set up across the region as the next wave is moving
northward out of the gulf across MS/AL. Things are still fairly
stable across the state as a Bermuda ridge just off the eastern
seaboard has pushed in across the area from the east. Expecting a
bit more diurnally driven instability to develop Monday as the
ridge does weaken a bit. PW values remain in the 1.75 to 2 inch
range through the short term so any storms that do develop are
expected to drop a decent amount of precip. In general, conditions
remain in place to keep likely pops across the area Today and
again Monday during the daylight hours with chance pops at night.
Layers of mid/high clouds and east to southeast winds should help
keep max temperatures in the low 80s far north to low 90s east
central Monday. Lows tonight and Monday night will dip into the
60s to near 70.

01

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
For the first part of the long term period, the meandering upper-
level cut-off low (located roughly over MO/IA/IL at the start of the
period) will transition to an open wave and shift eastward.
Meanwhile, mid- and low-level southerly flow will continue to advect
Gulf moisture across the CWA, keeping PWATs around 1.5 to 2.0 inches
(around the maximum moving average per FFC sounding climatology). Am
maintaining high-end chance to likely PoPs for Tuesday, Wednesday,
and Thursday given the upper-level troughing and tropical air mass
in place. The focus for the precip over these three days will be
across northern GA, closer to the weak upper-level low.
Specifically, WPC QPF through the long term period shows a rainfall
maximum over the higher elevations of north GA. Day 3-7 storm total
rainfall is forecast to be 1.0 to 2.0 inches across the higher
terrain, with 0.25 to 0.75 inch across the rest of the CWA.

The GFS and ECMWF signal a transition to northwesterly upper flow
over the course of Friday and Saturday, with upper disturbances
diving southeastward and potentially impacting the CWA. The timing
of said disturbances, however, varies amongst the models. Given this
is Day 6/Day 7 and uncertainty is quite high, am capping PoPs at
high-end chance to low-end likely across northern GA.

No organized or widespread severe weather is forecast at this time,
though a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out each day.
The main threats with storms each day will be frequent lightning,
gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. High and low temps will
remain at least a few degrees above average through the period given
the warm, soupy air mass in place.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms popping up across the area
Convective coverage will increase over the next few hours and
expecting the TAF sites to start seeing precip by 20z. The storms
should calm down after sunset then pick back up again Monday
afternoon. Winds expected to stay mainly out of the S to SE in the
5-10kt range. Will see some higher gust in and around any
stronger storms. Ceilings starting off in the VFR range but will
see some MVFR ceilings with the afternoon convection today and
monday afternoon. Ceilings expected to fall into the IFR range
over night then lift back into the VFR range by 15-17z Monday.
Will see some patchy fog develop tonight so may see some MVFR
VSBYs across the area. The fog will dissipate shortly after
sunrise.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  67  83 /  50  80  50  80
Atlanta         69  81  68  83 /  50  80  50  80
Blairsville     65  76  64  78 /  50  80  60  80
Cartersville    68  81  67  84 /  50  80  50  80
Columbus        70  84  69  88 /  50  80  50  60
Gainesville     68  79  67  80 /  50  80  60  80
Macon           69  85  68  88 /  50  70  50  60
Rome            69  81  68  85 /  60  80  50  80
Peachtree City  68  81  67  85 /  50  80  50  70
Vidalia         72  86  70  88 /  50  70  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1207 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1207 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. The primary threats will be frequent lightning, gusty
winds and brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There will be a chance of thunderstorms each day through
Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on any of these
days; however, no organized or widespread severe weather is
expected. The primary threat from any thunderstorms will be
frequent lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
447 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

GAZ097-098-111-112-062115-
Wheeler GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
447 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER...SOUTHWESTERN
TREUTLEN...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 447 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Alamo...moving north
at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Alamo, Glenwood, Lowery, Barnhill, Landsburg and Cedar Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3206 8286 3208 8288 3216 8290 3218 8287
      3220 8289 3219 8291 3232 8294 3238 8276
      3230 8261 3209 8267 3206 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 184DEG 16KT 3218 8277

WIND...50MPH