Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
737 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.UPDATE...
For 12z TAFs/Aviation. See discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Very mild conditions exist across the area early this morning ahead
of a strong cold front that will cross north and central GA today.

Leading edge of convective/storm complex expected to reach NW
Georgia btwn 11-12z, advancing south and east through day. Greatest
severe potential will be across northwest/north-central GA (west of
a Blue Ridge to Jasper to Cartersville to Cedartown line) this
morning, where 50-60kts low lvl (0-3KM) winds/bulk shear coupled
with MLCAPE up to 500 J/KG will exist to support damaging wind
threat in any bowing line segments.

We are continuing to monitor conditions across north Alabama for a
potential WATCH across this area.

Elsewhere, through the late morning/afternoon... narrow line of
showers and storms will continue to move southeast perhaps
undergoing some weakening before tapping into better instability
this afternoon over middle/central GA. Shear profiles are not
expected to be as impressive as early this morning (across the
north) so severe threat will "isolated" at best this afternoon as
line eventually weakens and exits forecast area by 6-8 PM this
evening. In addition to the storm threats, gusty winds will occur
just ahead of the front as well as for several hours post-frontal.
Guidance suggesting 15-20 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 30
mph at times. This doesn't meet Wind Advisory criteria but will have
to be monitored as we head into the late morning/early afternoon
hours.

Much drier/cooler air will filter across the area tonight with low
temps in the 30s/40s (far cry from the 60s/70s we are seeing this
morning). Dry and stable conditions will prevail Monday with more
seasonal temperatures expected.

DJN.83

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

At the start of the period GA is under a weak ridge aloft with the
remnants of a surface front along the Gulf Coast. The surface
boundary moves north through Tuesday as a wave develops on it. This
will spread showers and a few thunderstorms back into north and
central GA Monday night and Tuesday. For Tuesday night through
Wednesday night a long wave trough moves from the MS River Valley
eastward through the Great Lakes. This will push a cold front
through GA on Wednesday. Highest pops on Tuesday night and Wednesday
still look reasonable with the frontal passage. With increasing
instability during that time...have included a mention of thunder.
By Thursday the long wave trough has moved off the Atlantic Coast
and a dry northwest flow dominates the forecast area. A cooling
trend is in store after Wednesday with low temperatures in the 30s
for much of the area  Wednesday night and Thursday night. The GFS
and ECMWF seem to be in reasonable agreement on the major features.

41

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Broken line of convection has entered NW Georgia and should make
its way across ATL and surrounding sites between 14-17z. Gusty
winds and locally heavy rain should be main threats. Outside of
the storms, increasing SW winds will occur then shift W/NW behind
the line (sustained 15-20 mph w/ gusts around 25 mph). MVFR cigs
expected to increase ahead of the convection, then gradually erode
as drier air comes in behind the front. Winds should diminish late
this evening/overnight. For ATL... a wind shift to the E/NE is
expected after 12z/Monday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on ceilings/wind speeds
Medium to high on timing and impacts from convection

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  40  66  44 /  80  10   5  10
Atlanta         73  40  65  46 /  80  10   5  10
Blairsville     64  34  63  41 /  90  10   0   5
Cartersville    69  37  66  44 /  90   5   5   5
Columbus        74  44  69  51 /  90  10   5  20
Gainesville     69  40  64  44 /  80  10   5  10
Macon           82  43  70  49 /  80  20   0  20
Rome            69  39  66  44 /  90   5   5   5
Peachtree City  74  40  67  46 /  80  10   5  10
Vidalia         85  49  71  53 /  60  50   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for the
following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Dade...Dawson...Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer...Gordon...Lumpkin...
Murray...Pickens...Polk...Union...Walker...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DJN.83

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
455 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-290900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
455 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A cold front will bring a line of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms to north and central Georgia today into the
early evening. The showers and thunderstorms will enter northwest
Georgia early this morning...and spread east and south across the
remainder of the area this afternoon and early evening. A few
storms could become strong to severe. The main threats will be
damaging winds and large hail. Locally heavy rain is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There will be a chance for thnderstorms again Tuesday night
through Wednesday night ahead of another frontal boundary as it
crosses the area mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
110 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE LILBURN            33.90N  84.13W
03/28/2021                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON A HOUSE OFF
            OF HARVARD DRIVE NW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100082

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
113 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ049>051-059-060-281745-
Taliaferro GA-Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Jasper GA-Greene GA-
113 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TALIAFERRO...SOUTHEASTERN
MORGAN...PUTNAM...JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 145
PM EDT...

At 113 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Shady Dale to near McElheneys Crossroads...and
moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Eatonton, Monticello, White Plains, Siloam, Shady Dale, Phoenix,
Reynolds at Lake Oconee, Liberty, Veazey, Harmony, Godfrey, Resseaus
Crossroads, Warfield, Willard, Rockville, Rock Eagle 4-H Center,
Central Georgia Experiment Stn, Plant Harlee Branch, Calvin and Parks
Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3345 8303 3336 8316 3334 8314 3331 8315
      3328 8323 3326 8323 3326 8325 3319 8328
      3317 8333 3318 8346 3314 8376 3315 8382
      3318 8382 3319 8381 3321 8383 3325 8381
      3328 8383 3348 8360 3359 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 261DEG 44KT 3344 8359 3324 8383

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
114 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ058-059-068>072-281745-
Butts GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Upson GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-Pike GA-
114 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUTTS...LAMAR...
MONROE...NORTHEASTERN UPSON...NORTHWESTERN JONES...SOUTHWESTERN
JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 114 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Piedmont, or near
Barnesville...moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Thomaston, Barnesville, Forsyth, Milner, Meansville, Aldora, The
Rock, Atwater, Goggins, Berner, Brent, Chappel Mill, High Falls State
Park, Redbone, Blount, Liberty Hill, Hannahs Mill, Collier, Juliette
and Piedmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3292 8443 3316 8427 3324 8369 3294 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 261DEG 44KT 3305 8425

WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
116 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE PLEASANT HILL     33.92N  84.07W
03/28/2021                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE FELL ON A POWERLINE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            GRANADA PL SW AND MIRANDY WAY NW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100083

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
139 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ059-060-071>073-281815-
Putnam GA-Monroe GA-Baldwin GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
139 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PUTNAM...NORTHEASTERN
MONROE...WESTERN BALDWIN...JONES AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL
215 PM EDT...

At 138 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from McElheneys Crossroads to near Plant Scherer...and
moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Gray, Meriwether, Ethridge, James, Bradley, Wayside,
Dames Ferry, Berner, Haddock, Resseaus Crossroads, Round Oak,
Clinton, Jarrell Plantation, Plant Harlee Branch, Hillsboro, Browns
Crossing, McElheneys Crossroads, Juliette and Stanfordville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3326 8323 3326 8325 3323 8325 3321 8326
      3320 8327 3319 8327 3319 8326 3295 8334
      3298 8390 3318 8383 3319 8381 3320 8382
      3329 8379 3329 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 263DEG 45KT 3323 8377 3304 8384

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
141 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ089-090-102-281815-
Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-Muscogee GA-
141 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE...STEWART AND
SOUTHERN MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 140 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Benning Hills to near Omaha to near Twin Springs...and
moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lumpkin, Cusseta, Richland, Fort Benning/lawson Army Air Fld,
Charles, Christopher, Sand Hill, Westville, Battle Park,
Jamestown/south Fort Benning, Brooklyn, Renfroe, Manta, Omaha,
Sanford, Custer Road Terrace, Eelbeck/West Fort Benning, Benning
Hills, Benning Park and Louvale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3197 8496 3198 8496 3199 8507 3209 8504
      3213 8506 3218 8501 3220 8496 3222 8498
      3222 8493 3225 8492 3226 8489 3230 8494
      3233 8501 3242 8496 3245 8499 3244 8466
      3223 8466 3218 8463 3212 8464 3192 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 272DEG 39KT 3241 8494 3223 8501 3211 8514

WIND...50MPH