Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
737 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.UPDATE...
For 12z TAFs/Aviation. See discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Very mild conditions exist across the area early this morning ahead
of a strong cold front that will cross north and central GA today.

Leading edge of convective/storm complex expected to reach NW
Georgia btwn 11-12z, advancing south and east through day. Greatest
severe potential will be across northwest/north-central GA (west of
a Blue Ridge to Jasper to Cartersville to Cedartown line) this
morning, where 50-60kts low lvl (0-3KM) winds/bulk shear coupled
with MLCAPE up to 500 J/KG will exist to support damaging wind
threat in any bowing line segments.

We are continuing to monitor conditions across north Alabama for a
potential WATCH across this area.

Elsewhere, through the late morning/afternoon... narrow line of
showers and storms will continue to move southeast perhaps
undergoing some weakening before tapping into better instability
this afternoon over middle/central GA. Shear profiles are not
expected to be as impressive as early this morning (across the
north) so severe threat will "isolated" at best this afternoon as
line eventually weakens and exits forecast area by 6-8 PM this
evening. In addition to the storm threats, gusty winds will occur
just ahead of the front as well as for several hours post-frontal.
Guidance suggesting 15-20 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 30
mph at times. This doesn't meet Wind Advisory criteria but will have
to be monitored as we head into the late morning/early afternoon
hours.

Much drier/cooler air will filter across the area tonight with low
temps in the 30s/40s (far cry from the 60s/70s we are seeing this
morning). Dry and stable conditions will prevail Monday with more
seasonal temperatures expected.

DJN.83

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

At the start of the period GA is under a weak ridge aloft with the
remnants of a surface front along the Gulf Coast. The surface
boundary moves north through Tuesday as a wave develops on it. This
will spread showers and a few thunderstorms back into north and
central GA Monday night and Tuesday. For Tuesday night through
Wednesday night a long wave trough moves from the MS River Valley
eastward through the Great Lakes. This will push a cold front
through GA on Wednesday. Highest pops on Tuesday night and Wednesday
still look reasonable with the frontal passage. With increasing
instability during that time...have included a mention of thunder.
By Thursday the long wave trough has moved off the Atlantic Coast
and a dry northwest flow dominates the forecast area. A cooling
trend is in store after Wednesday with low temperatures in the 30s
for much of the area  Wednesday night and Thursday night. The GFS
and ECMWF seem to be in reasonable agreement on the major features.

41

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Broken line of convection has entered NW Georgia and should make
its way across ATL and surrounding sites between 14-17z. Gusty
winds and locally heavy rain should be main threats. Outside of
the storms, increasing SW winds will occur then shift W/NW behind
the line (sustained 15-20 mph w/ gusts around 25 mph). MVFR cigs
expected to increase ahead of the convection, then gradually erode
as drier air comes in behind the front. Winds should diminish late
this evening/overnight. For ATL... a wind shift to the E/NE is
expected after 12z/Monday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on ceilings/wind speeds
Medium to high on timing and impacts from convection

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  40  66  44 /  80  10   5  10
Atlanta         73  40  65  46 /  80  10   5  10
Blairsville     64  34  63  41 /  90  10   0   5
Cartersville    69  37  66  44 /  90   5   5   5
Columbus        74  44  69  51 /  90  10   5  20
Gainesville     69  40  64  44 /  80  10   5  10
Macon           82  43  70  49 /  80  20   0  20
Rome            69  39  66  44 /  90   5   5   5
Peachtree City  74  40  67  46 /  80  10   5  10
Vidalia         85  49  71  53 /  60  50   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for the
following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Dade...Dawson...Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer...Gordon...Lumpkin...
Murray...Pickens...Polk...Union...Walker...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DJN.83

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
455 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-290900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
455 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A cold front will bring a line of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms to north and central Georgia today into the
early evening. The showers and thunderstorms will enter northwest
Georgia early this morning...and spread east and south across the
remainder of the area this afternoon and early evening. A few
storms could become strong to severe. The main threats will be
damaging winds and large hail. Locally heavy rain is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There will be a chance for thnderstorms again Tuesday night
through Wednesday night ahead of another frontal boundary as it
crosses the area mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
930 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ007-013>015-021-281400-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Pickens GA-Lumpkin GA-
930 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILMER...WESTERN
DAWSON...NORTHERN CHEROKEE...PICKENS AND SOUTHWESTERN LUMPKIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

At 930 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Talmadge, or 7 miles
west of Jasper...moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jasper, Nelson, Waleska, Talking Rock, Amicalola Falls State Park,
Sequoyah Lake, Marblehill, Juno, Fausett Lake, Len Foote Hike Inn,
Salacoa Valley, Blaine, Lake Tamarack, Hollis Lathem Reservoir,
Talmadge, Tate, Reavis Mountain, Nimblewill, Hinton and McKee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3461 8409 3439 8414 3430 8465 3435 8465
      3435 8464 3436 8465 3445 8466 3446 8465
      3448 8466 3452 8465 3458 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 257DEG 37KT 3444 8455

WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW ROME              34.25N  85.25W
03/28/2021                   FLOYD              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG BURNETT FERRY RD NEAR ALTO
            PARK RECREATION CENTERT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100078

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
941 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ008-009-015-016-281415-
Union GA-Towns GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
941 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN UNION...TOWNS...NORTHERN
WHITE AND NORTHEASTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM EDT...

At 941 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Owltown, or near
Blairsville...moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Hiawassee, Blairsville, Young Harris, Helen, Unicoi State Park,
Whitley Gap Shelter, Robertstown, Blue Mountain Shelter, Brasstown
Bald, Titus, Mountain Scene, Woods Hole Shelter, Low Gap Shelter,
Owltown, Vogel State Park, Track Rock, Tate City, Anna Ruby Falls,
Macedonia and Plum Orchard Gap Shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3495 8355 3494 8360 3492 8359 3491 8363
      3490 8363 3488 8366 3483 8366 3482 8365
      3480 8368 3479 8368 3476 8363 3473 8362
      3469 8364 3469 8404 3492 8394 3499 8366
      3499 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 1341Z 257DEG 34KT 3482 8396

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
949 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     HAIL             HAMILTON                32.76N  84.88W
03/26/2021  M1.00 INCH       HARRIS             GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN HAMILTON GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100079

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
951 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ014-020-021-030>032-281415-
Polk GA-Dawson GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
951 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK...SOUTHERN DAWSON...
NORTHWESTERN COBB...CHEROKEE...SOUTHERN BARTOW AND NORTHERN PAULDING
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM EDT...

At 950 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Salacoa Valley to near Cedartown...and moving east at
40 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Canton, Cartersville, Dallas, Kennesaw, Woodstock, Acworth, Holly
Springs, Rockmart, Euharlee, Emerson, Ball Ground, Aragon, White,
Waleska, Braswell, Taylorsville, Buffington, Yorkville, Burnt Hickory
Ridge and Kellogg Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor
NOAA Weather Radio...weather.gov or orther media outlets for further
statements or possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3393 8535 3410 8508 3410 8505 3412 8505
      3432 8471 3439 8414 3433 8422 3433 8426
      3431 8426 3392 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 267DEG 36KT 3435 8460 3398 8521

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1020 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

GAZ021-022-031>033-281445-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-Paulding GA-
1020 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...COBB...SOUTHERN
CHEROKEE...FORSYTH AND PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM EDT...

At 1020 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Buffington to near New Georgia...and moving east at 60
mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Marietta, Canton, Dallas, Cumming, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns
Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Milton, Kennesaw, Duluth, Woodstock,
Acworth, Sugar Hill, Powder Springs, Holly Springs, Hiram, Free Home
and Fair Oaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3408 8470 3408 8466 3411 8466 3426 8444
      3433 8395 3430 8395 3428 8393 3427 8395
      3422 8396 3419 8400 3418 8406 3410 8411
      3406 8411 3399 8420 3400 8424 3396 8428
      3397 8435 3389 8435 3381 8504 3384 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 260DEG 53KT 3423 8441 3387 8493

WIND...40MPH