Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 238 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021

Today:

Overnight, a warm front lifted north across mid Missouri. Storms
have stayed fairly well behaved overnight, with most staying
below severe limits. A few additional showers and thunderstorms
have developed in the warm sector in a broad area of ascent.
Severe weather is not anticipated with these morning storms, but
brief heavy downpours will be possible.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will move out by mid morning and we
will see some dry time through the day.  Likely will see quite a bit
of cloud cover lingering through the day, but expect to see some
clearing in the warm sector.  Ample southerly flow will continue to
draw moisture north through the day. As this happens, increasing
cape values up to 2000 j/kg will be in place by the afternoon.
Additionally healthy shear approaching 50 knots will also increase
through the afternoon. By early afternoon, expect a cold front to
be moving into western Missouri. The front will continue tracking
east, where eventually storms will ignite along it. Storms are
expected to develop east of I-35 and well east of the Kansas City
Metro. Most will stay dry, but those in our far western and
southeastern counties will want to pay close attention to the
skies in the afternoon. Storms are expected to quickly develop and
merge into a line with the main severe threat being strong winds.
But any storms that can stay more discrete will have a short
lived potential for large hail and a tornado can't be ruled out.
The line of storms will move out of our area by sunset and will
track through southeast Missouri with continued potential for
strong winds in those area. But for us, expect a dry forecast to
return by late Sunday evening.

The workweek:

Things will cool off behind the cold front and
Monday morning lows may dip into the 30s again for those in
northwest Missouri. The rest of the area should expect mid 40s to
start the day Monday. Sunshine will return Monday, but its going
to remain chilly with highs only topping out in the 50s across
the area. Dry weather will continue on Tuesday with a brief warm
up into the 60s again. Active weather will return to the area
Wednesday and Thursday as a deepening trough swings thorough the
midwest. This will bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Highs will return to the upper 50s for the second
half of the week with lows remaining in the 40s. Dry conditions
will return for Friday into Halloween weekend with highs back to
the low 60s to upper 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021

Lingering shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through
mid morning, but dry time will return for mid day. MVFR ceilings
will linger into the afternoon, but some scattering out is
expected prior to the arrival of the cold front. This front will
shift winds to the northwest and gusts up to 30 knots will be
possible through this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...HB
Aviation...HB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
515 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered morning thunderstorms will continue before moving out of
the area by midday. A few of these storms may produce hail and
localized heavy rainfall.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and early evening. The
greatest risk area is along and east of a line from Clinton to
Moberly Missouri.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
734 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ060-241300-
Linn KS-
734 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Linn County through
800 AM CDT...

At 734 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blue Mound, or 10 miles west of Mound City, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasanton, Mound City and Blue Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3806 9508 3825 9507 3838 9489 3818 9469
      3805 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 237DEG 33KT 3815 9505

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
753 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ057-060-MOZ053-241330-
Miami KS-Linn KS-Bates MO-
753 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Miami,
Linn and northwestern Bates Counties through 830 AM CDT...

At 752 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Cygne, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Drexel, Linn Valley, Blue Mound,
Amsterdam, Amoret and Merwin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3812 9507 3829 9500 3852 9463
      3851 9461 3848 9461 3848 9456 3833 9434
      3803 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 238DEG 44KT 3829 9478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Grana