Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021

Key Messages:

- Cloudy and cool today with showers and thunderstorms likely
  developing this evening. A few storms could be strong across NW
  and northern Missouri.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms likely tomorrow afternoon,
  especially east and southeast of the KC metro.
- Cool and dry for Monday and Tuesday.
- Another storm system looks likely to impact the region Wednesday
  into Thursday.

Discussion:

Plenty of cloud cover across the region this afternoon with
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A warm front will lift
northward through the area tonight and with a low level jet
ramping up, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
along an west to east axis roughly along the I-70 corridor by this
evening and move northward through the evening and into the early
overnight hours. A few elevated supercells will be possible across
NW and northern Missouri, with large hail being the primary
threat. Some localized moderate to heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

A fairly potent mid level trough with an accompanying surface low
and cold front will approach and move through the region tomorrow.
Another round of some morning showers and thunderstorms is
possible Sunday morning. Southerly low level flow will bring in
ample moisture tomorrow, helping dew points reach the low to mid
60s tomorrow afternoon. Storms are expected to redevelop tomorrow
afternoon along the surface cold front and move eastward. A few
storms may also be possible across the warm sector ahead of the
cold front. Very impressive low level and deep layer shear as well
as moderate instability will yield a substantial severe weather
threat, especially for storms that are able to remain mostly
discrete (in which case tornadoes and very large hail would very
much be in play). The most likely scenario is storms developing
along the cold front and quickly growing upscale into a line of
storms, with strong winds becoming the dominant threat. The best
chances for severe storms looks to be east and southeast of the KC
metro, with storms beginning around 2 pm and exiting east of the
region by around 7 pm.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected behind this
system for Monday into Tuesday before another mid level trough
approaches the region Wednesday into Thursday, reintroducing
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021

A strong storm system is approaching the area tonight. Strong
ascent ahead of the system with an associated warm front just
south of the terminals, is leading to showers and storms across
the area. IFR ceilings and spotty IFR visibility will persist
north of the warm front. Conditions will improve some once the
area moves into the warm sector. But this will lead to deeper
mixing of very strong winds aloft to the surface late in the
morning into the early afternoon hours. Winds decrease some after
the cold front moves through. This will also bring in a return of
lower clouds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BMW
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
448 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
448 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms possible this morning in east central Kansas
into west central Missouri.

Another round of thunderstorms expected this evening and overnight
areas north of Interstate 70. A few storms may produce hail.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Severe storms are possible on Sunday afternoon and evening,
especially in areas east of Interstate 35.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1252 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

MOZ006-015-240615-
Grundy MO-Mercer MO-
1252 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Grundy
and south central Mercer Counties through 115 AM CDT...

At 1251 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spickard, or 10 miles northwest of Trenton, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spickard, Brimson, Mill Grove and Modena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
north central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 9348 4012 9376 4025 9376 4035 9363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0551Z 234DEG 29KT 4021 9370

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Blair

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
126 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ025-102-MOZ020-240700-
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-Buchanan MO-
126 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Doniphan,
northeastern Atchison and central Buchanan Counties through 200 AM
CDT...

At 125 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Atchison, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Atchison, Wathena, Elwood, Troy, Rushville, Lancaster,
Denton, Doniphan, St. Joseph Airport and Bendena.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 40 and 42.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 1 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and northwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3986 9498 3985 9493 3983 9491 3983 9489
      3982 9487 3982 9482 3966 9478 3953 9518
      3956 9533 3972 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 246DEG 36KT 3961 9519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Blair