Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
656 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 303 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2021

Message of the Day

- A broken line of storms will move through much of the area this
  afternoon and evening. A couple of strong to severe storms are
  possible mainly along and east of I-35 between 3 PM and 10 PM.
  Isolated strong wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter-
  sized are the main concerns.

- The rest of the week will be dry with high temperatures in the
  70s and low temperatures in the 40s/50s.

Discussion

So far today has been on the warmer side again with southwest winds
gusting up to 25 mph. The well advertised cold front has started
moving through the area, currently stretching from Nodaway County,
MO to Doniphan County, KS. This means temperatures in far northwest
MO/northeast KS have likely reached their peak and will now start
to fall. Those west of I-35 will have temperatures in the upper
60s to low 70s by 5-6 PM. The KC Metro over to Kirksville will see
temperatures in the upper 60s to 70s around 7-8 PM, with central
MO finally seeing the big temperature drop by 10 PM.

Storms are expected to develop along the front any time now, west of
I-35. The front and storms should reach the I-35 corridor closer to
5 PM and then our central MO counties around 8-9 PM. Storms will be
in a thin broken line. A few strong to severe storms are possible,
mainly along and east of I-35. This is where we are seeing plenty of
sunshine and destabilization. SB CAPE is around 2000-3000 J/kg.
A deep upper level trough is also moving overhead, generating
around 30-35 kts of deep layer shear in the same area. Strong
winds are the main concern, but hail up to quarter-sized is
possible especially when storms initially develop. The best time
for strong to severe storms will be between now (3 PM) and 10 PM.

High pressure and beautiful fall weather will follow the cold front.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s the next few days with low
temperatures in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday morning. The surface
high pressure will slide east Thursday night, shifting winds back
to the southwest. This will help temperatures reach the upper 70s
to low 80s Friday. A weak and dry cold front will then pass
through Friday evening keeping the 70s around for Saturday. The
widespread 80 degree temperatures will make a comeback though at
the end of the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2021

Main focus for this TAF cycle is the cold front and associated
thunderstorms that are moving through with it. Storms are currently
just moving east of the terminals, with no more storm development
expected behind the line. As a result we expect clearing skies
behind the cold front will a gusty north wind into the early
morning hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
517 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
517 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening as a cold
front moves through the area. A few storms may be strong to briefly
severe with small hail and gusty winds.

More detailed information can be accessed at...
https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
725 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

MOZ023-024-030>032-038-039-210100-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Saline MO-Chariton MO-Lafayette MO-Livingston MO-
Linn MO-
725 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Chariton, southwestern Linn, east central Ray, Carroll, northwestern
Saline, northeastern Lafayette and southern Livingston Counties
through 800 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Norborne, or 11 miles east of Lexington, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Carrollton, Norborne, Meadville, Hale, Laclede,
Bosworth, Linneus, Wheeling, Utica, Wakenda, Bogard, Tina, Dover,
Sumner, Avalon and Dawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central, north central and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9383 3979 9365 3990 9312 3931 9324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 246DEG 34KT 3924 9367

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Klaus

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