Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

Message of the Day:
- A few severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening,
mainly in northwest MO and along the MO/KS border. Damaging winds
and hail will be the main concerns. Tornado threat is low. Localized
flash flooding is also possible. A severe thunderstorm watch is in
effect until 10 PM in northwest MO/northeast KS.

- A few severe storms are possible in our far southern counties as
well, but the best chances are south of our area. Hail and damaging
winds are the main concerns here. The tornado threat is low.
Localized flash flooding is also possible.

The clouds have been able to break up enough today to help the
atmosphere destabilize this afternoon. This will allow a couple of
areas of convection to develop in the next hour or two.

The first area of concern is northwest MO and along the MO/KS
border. In this area, we have a cold front and closed upper level
low pressure approaching the area providing support for convection.
Storms already exist with these features in NE, and they will work
their way into our area with some additional development originating
in our area out ahead of this complex. Damaging winds and hail will
be the main concerns. Heavy rain is also expected so some localized
flash flooding is possible. The tornado threat is low. This
convection will gradually move southeast through the evening, likely
reaching the north side of the KC Metro around 8 PM. The severe
potential will gradually taper off once the sun goes down. A severe
thunderstorm watch is in effect now through 10 PM for our northwest
corner of counties in MO and KS.

The second area of concern is our far southern counties, mainly Linn
County, KS and Bates and Henry Counties in MO. An outflow boundary
from this morning's convection is draped across this area and will
be the focus for new development this afternoon. Storms will
likely be in a broken line oriented west to east. The boundary
and storms will push south, so storms in our area should be short-
lived. Any storm that does move through our area will be capable
of damaging winds and hail. The severe threat should be to our
south by sunset.

Scattered showers and storms will linger late tonight and tomorrow
as the low pressure system slowly moves through the region. It looks
like high pressure will build over the East Coast, slowing the low
pressure system down. It will eventually push northeast, completely
drying out the area by Tuesday. We have a few rain chances then for
the remainder of next week as a few shortwave troughs move through
the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

Storms currently moving through the terminals will persist for
another 1-2 hours with occasional strong wind gusts and visibility
and ceiling restrictions. Ceilings will trend lower into the low
MVFR and IFR categories overnight into tomorrow morning. By the
afternoon, it looks like conditions will improve to higher MVFR or
VFR with potentially scattered showers in the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
509 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers linger behind a line of strong thunderstorms that
pushed through the region overnight. These showers are expected to
exit the area to the east. A wake low developing behind the line may
bring gusty winds through the morning hours. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms reinvigorate this afternoon. A few storms may be
strong to severe. Like yesterday, primary hazards remain heavy rain,
flash flooding, and high winds. Some storms may contain some hail as
well.

Overnight precipitation estimates of 6-8 inches were seen across
portions of North Central and Central MO. Flash flooding is the
primary concern in these areas. Continued showers and thunderstorms
today keep flash and river flooding concerns elevated. Remember if
you come across a flooded road. Turn around, don't drown.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Sunday and into
Monday. There looks to be a short break in the weather Tuesday before
storm chances return for the remainder of next week.

More detailed information can be accessed at...
https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ104-MOZ028-029-037-110015-
Wyandotte KS-Platte MO-Jackson MO-Clay MO-
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WYANDOTTE...SOUTHERN
CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE AND CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

At 624 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Waukomis, or near Weatherby Lake, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Independence, Lee's Summit, Blue Springs, Raytown,
Liberty, Gladstone, Parkville, North Kansas City, Sugar Creek,
Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Claycomo, Kansas City Kansas, Courtney,
Pleasant Valley, Lake Waukomis, Glenaire, Ferrelview and Avondale.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 18.
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 420 and 423.
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 18.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas near mile marker 235.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 0 and 11.
 Interstate 635 between mile markers 6 and 12.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 9 and 16.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 36 and 40, and between mile
markers 46 and 66.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3917 9478 3933 9466 3923 9421 3893 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 298DEG 29KT 3922 9464

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     HAIL             1 WSW LEAVENWORTH       39.30N 94.94W
07/10/2021  E1.00 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LANSING           39.24N 94.87W
07/10/2021                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN, BLOCKING THE ROADWAY.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAINT JOSEPH AIRPORT    39.77N 94.91W
07/10/2021  M55 MPH          BUCHANAN           MO   ASOS

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             LANSING                 39.25N 94.90W
07/10/2021  E0.75 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
639 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ103-104-MOZ028-110030-
Wyandotte KS-Leavenworth KS-Platte MO-
639 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WYANDOTTE...
LEAVENWORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 638 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Easton, or 10 miles east of Oskaloosa, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shawnee, Leavenworth, Lansing, Bonner Springs, Parkville, Tonganoxie,
Basehor, Edwardsville, Kansas City, Easton, Fairmount, Farley,
Wolcott, Pomeroy, Waldron, Maywood, Jarbalo and Piper.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 410 and 412.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 12 and 25.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 217 and 226.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas...and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3934 9518 3938 9515 3925 9470 3906 9483
      3906 9487 3901 9490 3916 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 297DEG 23KT 3926 9514

PP