Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 358 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2021

Key Points:

-Thunderstorms are expected to shift southeast of the area this
evening as cold front moves through the area.  An isolated strong
storms or two could create brief heavy rains and gusty winds.

-Warmer conditions are expected on Friday with heat indices of 90-
100 degrees.

-Severe weather possible early Saturday morning across northern
Missouri with damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and perhaps a
tornado or two.

Detailed discussion...

Broken line of convection immediately behind surface cold front
should continue to work south and east through the early eveing
hours.  North-Northwesterly flow will advect drier air into the
region leading to cooler low temperatures tonight, especially north
of highway 36.

Pleasant summer day expected on Thursday with light winds and high
temperatures in the mid 80s with high pressure building into the
western Great Lakes.  As flow turns southerly late in the day,
moisture will creep back north into the area.

Friday moisture will increase across the area with flow originating
from the Gulf.  Precipitable water increases throughout the day from
just over an inch Friday morning to nearly an inch and three quarters
late in the day.  Capping inversion near 800 mb should effectively
keep convection at bay through the day, but will also trap the muggy
conditions in the near surface layer.  The muggy conditions will
lead to heat index values inching towards 100 late afternoon west of
highway 65.

Shortwave moving into central Nebraska is expected to result in
thunderstorm development across central Nebraska.  These storms may
develop into a complex, moving southeast through the overnight. This
complex is expected to build into a 25-35 knot low level jet. With
MU CAPE of 2-3K J/kg and strongly sheared environment, agree with
SPC on slight risk of severe weather Friday night across northern
Missouri.

Upper wave is expected deepen across the Northern Plains on Saturday
and work towards the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Blocking ridge to the
east will keep things from advancing quickly, leading to additional
chances of storms throughout the weekend.

Drier more temperate conditions are expected the first half of next
week on the back side of the system.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM  CDT WED JUL 7 2021

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop southeast of a
line from Topeka to Princeton, including the metro. Brief heavy
rain and gusty winds are possible with the strongest storms.
Northwest flow will prevail through the overnight. Winds will be
light on Thursday, turning clockwise with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
512 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
512 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day. No severe
weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Friday night, a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is
forecast to develop over portions of Iowa and Nebraska and move into
northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas late Friday night into
Saturday morning. There is a slight risk of severe storms across
northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Damaging wind gusts are
the primary forecast concern at this time.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across the area with this system Friday
night through Saturday. The heaviest rainfall is forecast to occur
across northern Missouri, where upwards of 2 to 3 inches of
widespread rainfall may occur. Upwards of an inch to 2 inches is
forecast for central and western Missouri and eastern Kansas.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
158 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

MOZ024-071930-
Linn MO-
158 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINN COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 157 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Meadville, or 10 miles west of Brookfield, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brookfield, Marceline, Meadville, Laclede, Linneus, Purdin and Saint
Catherine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 9287 3971 9320 3970 9320 3970 9335
      3979 9337 3983 9336 4002 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 234DEG 15KT 3975 9328

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

KSZ104-105-MOZ029-037-072100-
Johnson KS-Wyandotte KS-Jackson MO-Clay MO-
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WYANDOTTE...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

At 326 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kansas City, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, Independence, Lee's Summit, Shawnee,
Leawood, Raytown, Gladstone, Grandview, Prairie Village, Merriam,
Mission, Edwardsville, North Kansas City, Fairway, Mission Hills,
Sugar Creek, Riverside, Westwood and Lake Quivira.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 17.
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 412 and 423.
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 10.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 226 and 235.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 0 and 2.
 Interstate 635 between mile markers 0 and 9.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 3, and near mile marker
16.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 11 and 12, and between mile
markers 54 and 78.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3910 9482 3916 9466 3916 9460 3918 9460
      3920 9455 3909 9425 3886 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 304DEG 14KT 3910 9457

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

MOZ023-024-032-072130-
Chariton MO-Livingston MO-Linn MO-
345 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHARITON...
SOUTHWESTERN LINN AND SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

At 345 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Meadville, or 11 miles east of Chillicothe, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Laclede, Linneus, Wheeling and Sumner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3969 9347 3988 9345 3988 9310 3962 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 277DEG 14KT 3979 9333

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

KSZ104-105-MOZ037-043-072145-
Johnson KS-Wyandotte KS-Cass MO-Jackson MO-
356 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WYANDOTTE...EASTERN
JOHNSON...NORTHWESTERN CASS AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Raytown, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe, Independence, Lee's Summit,
Shawnee, Blue Springs, Lenexa, Leawood, Raytown, Grandview, Belton,
Prairie Village, Raymore, Grain Valley, Merriam, Mission, Greenwood,
Edwardsville and Fairway.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 5 and 26.
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 1.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 217 and 235.
 Interstate 635 between mile markers 0 and 2.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 16.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 0 and 8, and between mile
markers 59 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9489 3913 9433 3898 9411 3896 9411
      3873 9462 3874 9464 3899 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 303DEG 11KT 3903 9451

Leighton/Klaus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
431 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

MOZ037-038-043-044-072215-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-
431 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS...SOUTHWESTERN
LAFAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 428 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Winnebago, or near Raymore, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lee's Summit, Grandview, Belton, Raymore, Pleasant Hill, Odessa,
Greenwood, Peculiar, Lake Lotawana, Lake Winnebago, Lone Jack,
Kingsville, Baldwin Park, Lake Lafayette, Strasburg, Pittsville and
Tarsney Lakes.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 38 and
43.

There is a second storm near Lone Jack moving towards Odessa and
Mayview.  This storm is capable of producing penny sized hail and 30
to 40 MPH winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9448 3887 9452 3898 9409 3903 9384
      3870 9402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 260DEG 16KT 3880 9440

Leighton