Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
139 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2021

The main concerns this forecast package will revolve around the
chance for sub-severe scattered thunderstorms today into tonight.Of
more concern, will be another round of storms that is expected on
Friday night. These storms will have the potential to bring severe
weather. Additional rounds of storms are expected through the
weekend which may bring the chance for flooding to the area as well.

Early this morning a weak cold front resides just to the northwest
of the CWA. Showers and occasional embedded thunderstorms associated
with this front will move into the northwestern portion of the CWA
this morning and weaken mid-morning. This cold front will sink
southeast across the CWA today with scattered thunderstorms along
the front redeveloping this afternoon. Limited instability, weak
shear, weak convergence and modest lapse rates will keep down any
threat of severe weather. Clouds and the weak frontal passage will
keep high temperatures in the lower 80s to the north but will rise
into the upper 80s across the southern CWA where the front will not
pass until later in the day. Showers and thunderstorms will come to
an end tonight as a ridge of high pressure looks to build into the
area for Thursday. High pressure and low relative humidity will make
for a very pleasant day Thursday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
High pressure will slide north and east of the area Thursday night
into Friday with strong WAA developing. This will allow temperatures
to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday as well as
transport better moisture into the region.

On Friday afternoon, a strong upper level shortwave will eject out
into northern Nebraska with thunderstorms developing there. This
shortwave will move southeast Friday night pushing a cold front
towards the area. Storms associated with this feature are expected
to grow upscale, most likely into a MCS as they approach. These
storms will further be fueled by a nocturnal southwesterly LLJ. The
MCS is progged to move into northern Missouri/northeastern Kansas
late Friday night. It will be moving into an environment of 3000-
4000J/Kg of MUCAPE as well as 0-6KM shear values of 45-55kts. These
conditions will be more than adequate for storms to produce severe
winds. PWATs will be 2.00-2.25" so storms will be capable of heavy
rain however, at this time, storms are expected to be progressive
enough to mitigate flooding however, if any training does occur
flooding will become an issue.

Morning convection across the area on Saturday is expected to weaken
as the the LLJ weakens. However, by late afternoon it is expected to
restrengthen and nose into the area and override the cold front that
will be residing across the southern CWA. This will bring another
round of thunderstorms capable of heavy rain to the southern CWA.
Fortunately, it should be further south from where heavy rain will
have fallen on Friday night so flooding may again be mitigated. The
severe potential is nebulous and will be contingent upon Saturday
morning's storms. Highs Saturday will be in the 80s. Sunday the main
upper level trough swings through the area continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances which may linger into Monday as the upper level
trough tries to slow down and develop a closed low over the area in
the base of the trough. Tuesday the upper level trough shifts east
of the region leaving the area in northwest flow aloft. Models
depict upper level shortwaves dropping into the area on the
northwest flow aloft that would bring addition chances for
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM  CDT WED JUL 7 2021

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop southeast of a
line from Topeka to Princeton, including the metro. Brief heavy
rain and gusty winds are possible with the strongest storms.
Northwest flow will prevail through the overnight. Winds will be
light on Thursday, turning clockwise with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
512 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
512 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day. No severe
weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Friday night, a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is
forecast to develop over portions of Iowa and Nebraska and move into
northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas late Friday night into
Saturday morning. There is a slight risk of severe storms across
northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Damaging wind gusts are
the primary forecast concern at this time.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across the area with this system Friday
night through Saturday. The heaviest rainfall is forecast to occur
across northern Missouri, where upwards of 2 to 3 inches of
widespread rainfall may occur. Upwards of an inch to 2 inches is
forecast for central and western Missouri and eastern Kansas.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
158 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

MOZ024-071930-
Linn MO-
158 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINN COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 157 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Meadville, or 10 miles west of Brookfield, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brookfield, Marceline, Meadville, Laclede, Linneus, Purdin and Saint
Catherine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 9287 3971 9320 3970 9320 3970 9335
      3979 9337 3983 9336 4002 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 234DEG 15KT 3975 9328

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

KSZ104-105-MOZ029-037-072100-
Johnson KS-Wyandotte KS-Jackson MO-Clay MO-
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WYANDOTTE...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

At 326 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kansas City, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, Independence, Lee's Summit, Shawnee,
Leawood, Raytown, Gladstone, Grandview, Prairie Village, Merriam,
Mission, Edwardsville, North Kansas City, Fairway, Mission Hills,
Sugar Creek, Riverside, Westwood and Lake Quivira.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 17.
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 412 and 423.
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 10.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 226 and 235.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 0 and 2.
 Interstate 635 between mile markers 0 and 9.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 3, and near mile marker
16.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 11 and 12, and between mile
markers 54 and 78.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3910 9482 3916 9466 3916 9460 3918 9460
      3920 9455 3909 9425 3886 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 304DEG 14KT 3910 9457

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

MOZ023-024-032-072130-
Chariton MO-Livingston MO-Linn MO-
345 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHARITON...
SOUTHWESTERN LINN AND SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

At 345 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Meadville, or 11 miles east of Chillicothe, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Laclede, Linneus, Wheeling and Sumner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3969 9347 3988 9345 3988 9310 3962 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 277DEG 14KT 3979 9333

CDB