Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2021

Key Messages...

- Around 9 to 10 PM, expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop
  across portions of eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. This
  activity will slowly move east through the early morning hours.

- Greatest shower and thunderstorm chances will reside along and
  south of the Missouri River.

- Additional Rainfall tonight into Tuesday will be up to a half
  inch north of the Missouri River and between a half inch and two
  inches south of the Missouri River. Isolated locally higher
  amounts are possible with the strongest showers and storms.

Detailed Discussion...

As discussed yesterday, a very weak boundary has continued to linger
from southeast Kansas into central Missouri and this afternoon, was
slowly begun to lift back north ahead of the slow evolving upper
trough to the northwest over the Plains. 850mb analysis reveals
decent dew point axis laid southwest to northeast across the
region. Along this axis, supportive isentropic ascent will provide
focus for showers and thunderstorms as the upper trough begins to
advance east this evening. Depending on your flavor of CAM, the HRRR
has been rather consistent, convection is expected to develop along
this pre-trough axis. 700mb jet should aid as well, reaching 20 to
25kts out of the southwest. Forecast soundings reveal skinny cape
profiles, but enough MLCAPE to support isolated to scattered
thunder. Generally severe concerns are limited with highly isolated
heavy rain the greater concern. Pwats are forecast north of 1.75
inches, with some guidance easily breaching 2.00 inches. Similar to
showers yesterday, the atmosphere presented is basically tropical.
Any shower or isolated thunderstorm could quickly put down a half
inch to an inch of rainfall. As mentioned at the top, timing is
generally 9 to 10 PM, with the best chances along and south of the
River and the greatest rainfall amounts forecast south of the
Missouri River.

Precipitation chances will carry into Monday, with rain and showers
persisting as a blocking pattern keeps the region under broad ascent
with ample moisture return feeding into the area. Greatest rainfall
amounts will remain focused across the Ozarks into southeastern
Kansas and central Missouri. An additional inch or so of widespread
rain is forecast south of the Missouri River through Tuesday. Latest
guidance suggests daily rainfall chances through at least Thursday
given the stalled pattern. The good news is, mid-range solutions are
more consistent, with an actual front clearing the region on Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2021

With rain clearing the area expect quiet conditions for the next
several hours. Overnight, shower and thunderstorms activity will
become possible again. Activity will be scattered in nature so
confidence in impacts to the terminals is low so sticking with
VCTS through that period. By morning expect gradual decrease of
shower/storm activity, however a few hours of MVFR ceilings look
likely through late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...HB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281800-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

 Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening through the
 overnight hours. Severe weather is not anticipated.

 Minor to major river flooding is ongoing across western and central
 Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Scattered storms will be possible through midweek...the threat for
 severe weather appears low at this time however, additional
 rainfall may continue to aggravate ongoing flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1105 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

MOZ053-054-280445-
Bates MO-Henry MO-
1105 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND
SOUTHEASTERN BATES COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1104 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walker, or near Nevada, moving north at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rich Hill, Montrose and Rockville.

LAT...LON 3804 9424 3805 9425 3806 9440 3834 9427
      3831 9390 3821 9395 3821 9405 3803 9406
      3805 9410 3804 9411 3806 9413 3804 9420
      3805 9421 3804 9422 3803 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 199DEG 32KT 3793 9430

HB