Areal Flood Warning 23, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
317 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2021

Ongoing heavy rainfall has been nearly stationary over Johnson
County, KS and surrounding areas, with rain totals amounting up to
5" to 7"....and it's still raining as of 3 AM. A stationary
boundary is currently draped over northern KS into northern MO,
extending in southern IA. This feature is reluctant to move, which
will keep rain chances continuing through Friday morning. While
any severe threats are a non-issue, the major concern with these
ongoing heavy showers is the risk for flash flooding. A Flash
Flood Warning is currently in effect for Wyandotte Co, Leavenworth
Co, and Johnson Co, KS, until 8 AM Friday morning. If you come
across flooded roadways, remember to turn around and don't drown.

As for the rest of Friday, showers are projected to taper off
through mid to late morning, leaving us with a cooler and quiet
day. Afternoon highs will reach only into the lower 80s under
mostly cloudy skies. Skies should begin to clear out by the late
afternoon/evening, leaving the forecast area with a pleasant
Friday evening. Rain chances continue into the weekend, mainly for
counties south of I-70 as the surface boundary sinks south by
Saturday and taking a stationary position in southern MO. As of
right now, we are expecting the majority of our forecast area to
remain dry and cool over the weekend as we stay on the north side
of the boundary. Morning lows will drop into the 60s with
afternoon highs in the lowers 80s for the weekend temps.

By next week, models hint at another active pattern setting up
across the region as a upper level trough develops over the Great
Plains. Once again, this feature looks to stick around for a few
days before trekking off to the east, which would suggest the
chance for off and on rain showers Monday through Wednesday at
this time. Temps will stay in the lower 80s through the first half
of the week, slowly building back into the upper 80s and lower
90s by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2021

A mixture of IFR and VFR conditions will continue for the next few
hours as storms persist over the area. With little movement of
these storms, we do expect them to be out of the terminal
airspace between 08Z and 10Z. After that, we expect VFR conditions
to prevail with overcast skies and NE winds around 5kts. There is
a marginal chance for fog to develop this morning, though
confidence is low at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Klaus
Aviation...Klaus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
451 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-141000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
451 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Morning thunderstorms will continue before clearing during the
afternoon hours. Elevated levels on creeks and streams, along with
localized flooding, is expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Widespread hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

MOZ043-053-130515-
Bates MO-Cass MO-
1152 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Cass and
Bates Counties through 1215 AM CDT...

At 1151 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Adrian, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Adrian, Garden City, Archie, Drexel, Amsterdam, Amoret,
Foster, Merwin, Passaic, Ballard and Worland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9461 3859 9421 3824 9407 3822 9408
      3817 9405 3816 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0451Z 346DEG 18KT 3839 9442

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

KSZ025-130615-
Atchison KS-
1242 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Atchison
County through 115 AM CDT...

At 1241 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Horton, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Effingham, Muscotah, Farmington, Cummings and Arrington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9556 3965 9557 3966 9541 3965 9540
      3942 9520 3942 9557 3950 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 310DEG 32KT 3965 9557

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Blair