Areal Flood Warning 17, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
655 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 356 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2021

Main Concerns...

In the next 24 hours flash flooding will be our primary concern as
showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along an axis from east
central Kansas and west central Missouri, northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, along a stalled boundary. Widespread
rainfall totals between 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
of 4 to 6 inches, are possible where storms continue to redevelop
and train over the same location.

Forecast Discussion..

The forecast has not changed much in the past 10 to 12 hours, as
a large positively tilted trough continues to slowly dig its way
east across the Plains States. This has allowed a boundary to
stall out across the Central Plains, roughly from southeast Kansas
northeast through northeast Missouri. And, while the mid-level
flow ahead of the boundary, and trough in general, is rather weak,
around 15 to 20 knots from the south, this has been more than
sufficient to induce overrunning shower and thunderstorm activity
this afternoon. Current CAMs advertise this activity continuing
well into the overnight hours as isentropic lift persists over the
stalled boundary. With this in mind, we will keep the Flash Flood
Watch going overnight and through the day Tuesday for areas from
Kansas City to Kirksville and points south. Otherwise, will need
to watch for some minor severe weather, hail and damaging winds,
with some of the storms across west central Missouri as relative
shear values are running around 35 knots near the boundary along a
MLCAPE gradient around 1500 J/KG.

For Tuesday and Wednesday...expectations are that this general stormy
activity will persist through much of Tuesday and Wednesday as the
positively tilted trough slowly moves east, keeping the general
shower and thunderstorm trend slowly shifting east over the next 48
hours, with activity likely to focus more across central and
eastern Missouri.

Otherwise, for the upcoming holiday weekend, conditions continue to
look good as dry weather prevails, with highs around 80 and lows
around 60.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2021

MVFR to VFR conditions are prevailing across the Kansas-Missouri
state line terminals, as scattered MVFR clouds occasional fill in
enough to produce BKN skies. Expect overrunning moisture to
produce more showers and thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday
morning. Currently, expect early morning activity to arrive in
the MVFR range, but think that we might have to push CIGs and VIS
down into the IFR range in later TAF issuances as confidence
grows.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MOZ008-017-021>025-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
508 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
508 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms are expected Monday, with the best chance at passing
heavy showers south and east of Interstate 35. Local soils and
streams are sensitive so even brief showers could cause some flooding
impacts. Severe storms are not expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Thunderstorms continue off and on through mid to late week with
chances for more flooding within areas of heavier rains. Severe
storms are not expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo