Areal Flood Warning 15, NWS Kansas City, MO

198 
WGUS43 KEAX 261305
FLWEAX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
805 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

KSC107-121-MOC013-037-083-101-159-262100-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FA.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210626T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Linn KS KS-Miami KS-Bates MO-Cass MO-Henry MO-Johnson MO MO-
Pettis MO-
805 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill MO has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Linn KS County in east central Kansas...
  Miami County in east central Kansas...
  Southwestern Pettis County in central Missouri...
  Bates County in west central Missouri...
  Cass County in west central Missouri...
  Henry County in west central Missouri...
  Southern Johnson MO County in west central Missouri...

* Until 400 PM CDT Saturday.

* At 805 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing in the warned 
  area. Between 4 and 7 inches of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Raymore, Warrensburg, Harrisonville, Clinton, Paola, Spring Hill, 
  Peculiar, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Butler, Windsor, Holden, Adrian, 
  Garden City, Rich Hill, Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Whiteman 
  Air Force Base and Archie.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9507 3875 9461 3874 9351 3862 9328
      3851 9329 3851 9351 3821 9352 3821 9405
      3803 9406 3806 9413 3803 9423 3805 9424
      3806 9461 3804 9461 3804 9508

$$

Kurtz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

Key Points:

-Wet conditions are focus in the short term, with band of 4-10
inches of rainfall from Falls City Nebraska to Marshall MO.

-Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next 48
hours.  With very wet atmosphere and fairly deep warm cloud layer
depths, set up is nearly ideal to lead to heavy rainfall across the
area.

Detailed discussion...

Low level jet feeding into the central plains continuing to promote
shower and thunderstorm development across much of the area.  Of
greatest concern is area from Falls City to just north of St
Joseph, where 6-10 inches of rainfall has fallen over the past day
and thunderstorms continue to train across the area.  Of concern as
well is this bad that extends farther south and east towards
Marshall MO, which may be with additional heavy rain tonight. Models
suggest that the low level jet may try to reorient becoming more
westerly over time, potentially drawing drier air into the region
and allowing conditions to dry out a bit. With that said, have a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms moving out of central and
eastern Kansas towards the forecast area. Models are not handling
this area of convection well, so impacts with this system are
questionable at this point.  With the increased cloud cover and
potential precipitation, have lowered forecast highs some fore
today.

There are some hints that areas south of I-70 may try to break out
today, heat out and destabilize.  If these locations are able to
warm into the upper 80s, we will likely reach convective temperature
along with a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms.  With
precipitable water values above two inches and off the charts in
terms of sounding climatology, is a good set up for additional heavy
rain.  With southwest flow aloft, am concerned about the potential
for training storms through the afternoon and into the evening
hours. Thus, will maintain the flash flood watch for the entire
forecast area through Saturday morning.

30-40 knot low level jet is expected to develop tonight originating
in the open gulf drawing additional moisture into the region. Strong
mass convergence across central Missouri towards 00Z Saturday may
lead to additional precipitation, generally focused along and south
from near Princeton KS to Kirksville MO.  Low level jet may try to
lift north through the night, but northwest flow wrapping around
weak low pressure in Iowa may limit how far north low level jet can
expand north.

Wet pattern continues into Saturday with southwest flow continuing
ahead of slow moving cold front approaching from the west. WPC has
continued to outline the area in Moderate to Slight category for day
one and two Excessive Rainfall Outlook respectively.  Until the cold
front is able to work through the area on Saturday night, looks to
be quite wet.  Can't entirely rule out an isolated severe storm or
two as well, with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 25-35 knots.

Have not adjusted forecast beyond Saturday with active weather in
the short term.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

Complicated aviation forecast this afternoon and evening. MVFR
ceilings will likely linger, with brief dips to IFR at times.
Biggest aviation impact will be thunderstorm development through
the mid to late afternoon. Area airfields along and south of the
Missouri River valley are most likely to be impacted. Best
estimate for timing is 20 to 22Z. Through 05 to 06Z expect
isolated showers, but impacts to sites improving. Winds will
generally remain out of the south through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261145-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected again today into tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected to be most numerous after 3 pm today.
Areas of heavy rainfall can be expected with thunderstorms that
develop. A few of the stronger storms may produce hail to the size of
half dollars and wind gusts up to 65 mph.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible on Saturday. The
area of greatest concern on Saturday is mainly south of I-70. A few
of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
850 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE BLACKBURN         39.15N 93.47W
06/25/2021  M8.43 INCH       SALINE             MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
851 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW MOUNT LEONARD     39.10N 93.41W
06/25/2021  M7.59 INCH       SALINE             MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
852 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW NELSON            38.99N 93.04W
06/25/2021  M7.84 INCH       SALINE             MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
858 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CARROLLTON              39.36N 93.50W
06/25/2021  M7.95 INCH       CARROLL            MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
900 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PRINCETON               40.40N 93.58W
06/25/2021  M7.52 INCH       MERCER             MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
910 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PLEASANTON              38.18N 94.71W
06/25/2021  M4.80 INCH       LINN               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HB