Areal Flood Warning 14, NWS Kansas City, MO

183 
WGUS43 KEAX 261324
FLWEAX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
824 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

KSC005-043-MOC003-021-047-049-063-087-165-262000-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FA.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210626T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-Buchanan MO-Clay MO-Clinton MO-Holt MO-
Platte MO-Andrew MO-DeKalb MO-
824 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Doniphan County in northeastern Kansas...
  Northeastern Atchison County in northeastern Kansas...
  Buchanan County in northwestern Missouri...
  Clay County in west central Missouri...
  Clinton County in northwestern Missouri...
  Southeastern Holt County in northwestern Missouri...
  Northern Platte County in west central Missouri...
  Andrew County in northwestern Missouri...
  DeKalb County in northwestern Missouri...

* Until 300 PM CDT Saturday.

* At 823 AM CDT, emergency management and law enforcement continue 
  to report numerous roads closed across the warned area due to 
  flooding. Between 6 to 11 inches of rain fell across the warned 
  area Thursday night.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  St. Joseph, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Atchison, Cameron,
  Smithville, Kearney, Savannah, Lawson, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Gower,
  Wathena, Elwood, Maysville, Highland, Troy, Country Club Villa,
  Country Club and Oregon.

Additional rainfall amounts up to a half inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 9543 4000 9420 3922 9421 3945 9496
      3953 9510 3965 9518 3972 9534 4000 9534
      4000 9531 4004 9542 4012 9539

$$

Kurtz

380 
WGUS43 KEAX 261924
FLWEAX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
224 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

KSC005-043-MOC003-021-047-049-063-087-165-262300-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FA.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210626T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-Buchanan MO-Clay MO-Clinton MO-Holt MO-
Platte MO-Andrew MO-DeKalb MO-
224 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Doniphan County in northeastern Kansas...
  Northeastern Atchison County in northeastern Kansas...
  Buchanan County in northwestern Missouri...
  Clay County in west central Missouri...
  Clinton County in northwestern Missouri...
  Southeastern Holt County in northwestern Missouri...
  Northern Platte County in west central Missouri...
  Andrew County in northwestern Missouri...
  DeKalb County in northwestern Missouri...

* Until 600 PM CDT.

* At 223 PM CDT, emergency management and law enforcement continue 
  to report numerous roads closed across the warned area due to 
  flooding. Between 6 to 11 inches of rain fell across the warned 
  area Thursday night with an additional up to 1 inch of rain Friday.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  St. Joseph, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Atchison, Cameron,
  Smithville, Kearney, Savannah, Lawson, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Gower,
  Wathena, Elwood, Maysville, Highland, Troy, Country Club Villa,
  Country Club and Oregon.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to a quarter of an inch in 
isolated locations are possible in the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 9543 4000 9420 3922 9421 3945 9496
      3953 9510 3965 9518 3972 9534 4000 9534
      4000 9531 4004 9542 4012 9539

$$

Kurtz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

Key Points:

-Wet conditions are focus in the short term, with band of 4-10
inches of rainfall from Falls City Nebraska to Marshall MO.

-Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next 48
hours.  With very wet atmosphere and fairly deep warm cloud layer
depths, set up is nearly ideal to lead to heavy rainfall across the
area.

Detailed discussion...

Low level jet feeding into the central plains continuing to promote
shower and thunderstorm development across much of the area.  Of
greatest concern is area from Falls City to just north of St
Joseph, where 6-10 inches of rainfall has fallen over the past day
and thunderstorms continue to train across the area.  Of concern as
well is this bad that extends farther south and east towards
Marshall MO, which may be with additional heavy rain tonight. Models
suggest that the low level jet may try to reorient becoming more
westerly over time, potentially drawing drier air into the region
and allowing conditions to dry out a bit. With that said, have a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms moving out of central and
eastern Kansas towards the forecast area. Models are not handling
this area of convection well, so impacts with this system are
questionable at this point.  With the increased cloud cover and
potential precipitation, have lowered forecast highs some fore
today.

There are some hints that areas south of I-70 may try to break out
today, heat out and destabilize.  If these locations are able to
warm into the upper 80s, we will likely reach convective temperature
along with a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms.  With
precipitable water values above two inches and off the charts in
terms of sounding climatology, is a good set up for additional heavy
rain.  With southwest flow aloft, am concerned about the potential
for training storms through the afternoon and into the evening
hours. Thus, will maintain the flash flood watch for the entire
forecast area through Saturday morning.

30-40 knot low level jet is expected to develop tonight originating
in the open gulf drawing additional moisture into the region. Strong
mass convergence across central Missouri towards 00Z Saturday may
lead to additional precipitation, generally focused along and south
from near Princeton KS to Kirksville MO.  Low level jet may try to
lift north through the night, but northwest flow wrapping around
weak low pressure in Iowa may limit how far north low level jet can
expand north.

Wet pattern continues into Saturday with southwest flow continuing
ahead of slow moving cold front approaching from the west. WPC has
continued to outline the area in Moderate to Slight category for day
one and two Excessive Rainfall Outlook respectively.  Until the cold
front is able to work through the area on Saturday night, looks to
be quite wet.  Can't entirely rule out an isolated severe storm or
two as well, with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 25-35 knots.

Have not adjusted forecast beyond Saturday with active weather in
the short term.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

Complicated aviation forecast this afternoon and evening. MVFR
ceilings will likely linger, with brief dips to IFR at times.
Biggest aviation impact will be thunderstorm development through
the mid to late afternoon. Area airfields along and south of the
Missouri River valley are most likely to be impacted. Best
estimate for timing is 20 to 22Z. Through 05 to 06Z expect
isolated showers, but impacts to sites improving. Winds will
generally remain out of the south through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261145-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected again today into tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected to be most numerous after 3 pm today.
Areas of heavy rainfall can be expected with thunderstorms that
develop. A few of the stronger storms may produce hail to the size of
half dollars and wind gusts up to 65 mph.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible on Saturday. The
area of greatest concern on Saturday is mainly south of I-70. A few
of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
847 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE OREGON            39.97N 95.11W
06/25/2021  M8.47 INCH       HOLT               MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY
            TO 7 AM FRIDAY.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
850 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE BLACKBURN         39.15N 93.47W
06/25/2021  M8.43 INCH       SALINE             MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
851 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW MOUNT LEONARD     39.10N 93.41W
06/25/2021  M7.59 INCH       SALINE             MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
852 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW NELSON            38.99N 93.04W
06/25/2021  M7.84 INCH       SALINE             MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
858 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CARROLLTON              39.36N 93.50W
06/25/2021  M7.95 INCH       CARROLL            MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
900 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PRINCETON               40.40N 93.58W
06/25/2021  M7.52 INCH       MERCER             MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

BMW