Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
236 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...Updated short and long term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

A chance of thunderstorms will continue this afternoon as an MCS
moves through the area. Precipitation chances will then be
confined to central Kansas overnight with partly cloudy skies
elsewhere. Any thunderstorms that do develop across central Kansas
should move out of the area by tomorrow afternoon with decreasing
cloudiness. Winds will generally be light and form the southeast
through tomorrow with the exception of when thunderstorms move
through. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the
mid 60s with highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Dry conditions are expected through the majority of the long term
forecast as an upper level high slides east and over the Plains
with high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface. A
few models suggest a slight chance of precipitation as we head
into the weekend but this is many days out and will need to be
monitored through future model runs. As for temperatures, highs
will start out in the upper 80s Tuesday with 90s expected through
the remainder of the long term forecast. Lows will generally be in
the 60s with a few low 70s entering central Kansas mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

A few thunderstorms will be possible across the HYS and DDC
terminals this afternoon bringing periods of MVFR conditions.
Otherwise expect VFR conditions and partly cloudy skies. Winds
will generally be from the southeast with the exception of under
storms where gusts over 20 knots will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  86  63  87 /  20  20  10   0
GCK  64  85  62  86 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  64  88  63  86 /  20  20  10   0
LBL  65  86  63  85 /  20  20  10   0
HYS  66  86  61  88 /  30  30  10   0
P28  68  88  63  89 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
233 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 /133 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Storms will move in from Nebraska and northwest Kansas today. The
storms could become strong to severe in the afternoon with hail up
to ping pong ball sized and wind gusts up to 65 mph possible along
with brief heavy rain.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW HAYS              38.89N 99.37W
07/18/2021                   ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

JRJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 PM     HAIL             3 WNW HAYS              38.89N 99.37W
07/18/2021  U0.75 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&

JRJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
127 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

KSZ045-046-064-065-181900-
Hodgeman KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Ness KS-
127 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NESS...NORTHEASTERN
HODGEMAN...PAWNEE AND SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 127 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Shaffer to near Bazine. Movement was south
at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gray, Larned, Bazine, Burdett, Hanston, Rush Center, Rozel, Timken,
Alexander, Ash Valley, Sanford, Nekoma, Frizell and Shaffer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9987 3844 9983 3853 9903 3826 9903
      3826 9895 3810 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 353DEG 23KT 3847 9907 3839 9974

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

KSZ075-181930-
Grant KS-
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

At 206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Hickok, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 10146 3760 10133 3739 10110 3739 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 332DEG 8KT 3746 10129

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 N LARNED              38.26N 99.10W
07/18/2021  M61 MPH          PAWNEE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
240 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

KSZ078>080-087-088-182015-
Meade KS-Clark KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
240 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FORD...WESTERN KIOWA...
NORTHEASTERN MEADE...NORTHEASTERN GRAY...SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Kinsley to near Wright to near Howell.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Bucklin, Spearville, Minneola, Mullinville, Ford,
Offerle, Bloom, Clark State Lake, Kingsdown, Howell, Wright,
Windhorst and Ft. Dodge.

LAT...LON 3733 10018 3784 10022 3783 9983 3791 9952
      3747 9934 3734 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 333DEG 20KT 3786 9945 3779 9981 3782 10013

UMSCHEID