Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
457 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Storms will be possible today as an upper level shortwave and fgen
band moves from Nebraska into Kansas. What is still up in the air
is that the CAM models aren't latching on to an area of convection
as some are taking the morning fgen band from Nebraska and moving
through the I-70 corridor to our eastern counties through the
afternoon while other models are hinting at the western band in
northwest Kansas and moving to the south in the afternoon and
evening affecting areas west of Garden City. Latest HRRR has been
trending away from morning eastern convection and going more with
the afternoon western convection. The latest SPC risk basically
paints the CWA with a marginal risk. Overall moisture should be
good for any storm development with CAPE values over 2000 in the
afternoon. Shear will be more on the weaker side but still around
30 kts. Hence some gusty winds and hail will be the main threats
with some brief heavy rainfall. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

Tonight any storms that do develop should quickly move to the
south and be out of the area around sunset. There are hints in the
models another 700 mb fgen band will move into central Kansas by
sunrise which could develop some isolated storms for areas east of
Dodge City.  Lows will fall into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Isolated to scattered storms could continue through the day on
Monday as 700 mb shortwaves continue to move in from the north.
With east winds the temperatures should be slightly cooler with
highs in the upper 80s.

Overall for the rest of the week the upper level ridge in the
Rockies should start to move eastward and we should dry out with
temperatures steadily warming through the week. By Thursday and
Friday we will see highs in the upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Winds in general will be under 15 kts. HYS could see cloud
ceilings around 500-1000 feet for the start of the TAF time period
and then ceilings should quickly rise after sunrise. VCTS will be
possible later this afternoon for GCK and DDC between 19-23 Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  67  88  63 /  30  20  20   0
GCK  91  65  88  62 /  30  20  10  10
EHA  93  65  89  63 /  20  30   0  20
LBL  93  66  88  63 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  90  65  86  62 /  20  20  30   0
P28  91  69  87  64 /  20  10  40   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
233 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 /133 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Storms will move in from Nebraska and northwest Kansas today. The
storms could become strong to severe in the afternoon with hail up
to ping pong ball sized and wind gusts up to 65 mph possible along
with brief heavy rain.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1144 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

KSZ030-031-181715-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
1144 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TREGO AND NORTHERN
ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Zurich, or 16 miles northeast of Ellis, moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Ellis, Catherine, Emmeram and Yocemento.

LAT...LON 3889 9905 3889 9960 3913 9960 3913 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 004DEG 18KT 3914 9942

JJOHNSON