Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...Updated for mesoscale discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Key Messages:

Strong to severe storms will persist this evening in several
areas, especially along across the southern tier of counties in
southwest Kansas. These storms are still expected to develop into
a larger cluster, with the main threat being wind after 8 pm.

Mesoscale Discussion:

One supercell storm was still intact and moving along the
Oklahoma state line just in front of a line of storms. This storm
may maintain itself over the next hour before becoming part of a
line. After this occurs, damaging wind will be the main concern.
Until then, large hail is possible with this storm. Other storms
over south central Kansas are expected to remain strong to
marginally severe as they move across Pratt, Barber and Stafford
counties given the strong instability and marginal 0-6 km shear. A
line of storms has developed along a northward surging outflow
boundary south of Dodge City near the Oklahoma state line. Storm
scale interactions and additional outflows could result in these
storms becoming severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Convective initiation is likely to occur at least by the 4 to 5
pm timeframe and perhaps earlier, moving in from Oklahoma. Surface
based storms would be most likely to be triggered in the the most
moisture laden column airmass over western Oklahoma and south
central Kansas where the pwats measure climatologically very high,
in excess of about 1.6 inches up to nearly 1.9 inches in Barber
county, helping create some very high CAPS values over south
central Kansas. The flash flood guidance for the area exceed about
2.5 inches for an hour and pushing 4-5 inches in many areas on a
6 hour basis. Since the storm clusters overall looking to remain
progressive, the training of storms will probably be limited.
However isolated flash flooding cannot be discounted. Very high
CAPE values and increasing effective shear will add to the wind
risk with multicell clusters.

For Tonight - upper 60s and lingering stratus clouds are most
likely along ans south east of the synoptic boundary, with best
change for some clearing in the western counties where cooler air
will be working southward overnight as the front surges southward
and rain cooled air.

Saturday will see about a 5 to 15 degree ease in temperatures to the
cool side with the lessened moist and hot air in place. Coolest
signal looks over the west central Kansas counties where an overall
signal from the models and MOS  suggest highs capped int he upper
70s, while upper 80s is more likely still over the lower plains
counties in the eastern and south central Kansas counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

It looks like the forcing from the upper trough moving though the
central and southern Rockies will aid in pushing drier air over the
area, and in effect the convergent surface boundary southward into
Oklahoma. Saturday evening won't be completely free of convective
chances across southwest Kansas, as there does appear to be at least
an upslope component to the surface winds near the OK/KS line, as
well as the upper exiting jet in the PVA region of the tough
extending from central KS into sw IA. Beyond that The GFS/ECMWF are
in good agreement lingering a surface boundary somewhere from se KS
into central Oklahoma which would men multiple days of diurnally
driven convection in those areas, and the best opportunity for
additional strong to severe thunderstorms evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 438 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Another round of convection is expected this evening, and included
convective TEMPO groups in all TAFs, using the latest HRRR
iterations as a guide. Again tonight, storms will be capable of
erratic outflow winds to 50 kts. HRRR clears convection east of
HYS around 06z Sat, followed by winds trending north at 10-15 kts
overnight. Consensus of short term models suggests widespread post
frontal MVFR stratus can be expected at all airports for several
hours around 12z Sat. Ceilings will lift to a broken stratocumulus
field starting around 15z Sat, with VFR resuming.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  78  60  83 /  80  30  10  10
GCK  61  78  57  81 /  70  30  10  10
EHA  61  80  58  80 /  60  20  20  20
LBL  62  78  58  82 /  80  30  20  10
HYS  63  79  59  83 /  60  20  10   0
P28  68  85  65  85 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 /1158 PM MDT Thu Jun 24 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Evening storms will be possible again across south central Kansas
along a cold front. Damaging winds and some hail and heavy
rainfall at the main threats.

Another area of storms may move out of Colorado and into Kansas as
well. Damaging winds and large hail with heavy rainfall will be
the main threats with this second area during the evening.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Excessive heat: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Storms will be possible during this period. The main threat is
wind and perhaps some hail.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
730 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW HAYNE             37.10N 100.81W
06/25/2021  M64 MPH          SEWARD             KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION UP407 0.6 SW HAYNE (UPR).

&&

RML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
741 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ064-065-078-079-260130-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
741 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN
HODGEMAN...PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

At 741 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Larned to near Bellefont. Movement was
north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Larned, Kinsley, Offerle, Garfield, Rozel, Sanford, Frizell,
Bellefont and Zook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3783 9973 3807 9986 3833 9904 3831 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9902 3806 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 167DEG 18KT 3814 9905 3793 9968

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
742 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW MINNEOLA          37.43N 100.05W
06/25/2021  M62 MPH          CLARK              KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION UP313 2.1 W MINNEOLA (UPR).

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
745 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             2 WSW MINNEOLA          37.43N 100.05W
06/25/2021  E1.00 INCH       CLARK              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER INCH REPORTED ON HIGHWAY.

&&

RML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
804 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ043-260200-
Scott KS-
804 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

At 804 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Modoc, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Scott State Lake and Modoc.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3870 10071 3841 10077 3843 10113 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 273DEG 26KT 3868 10119

RUSSELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
838 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ045-260230-
Ness KS-
838 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NESS...NORTHWESTERN
HODGEMAN AND SOUTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 838 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Ness City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ness City and Bazine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central, southwestern and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3864 9976 3837 9958 3836 9959 3826 10006
      3826 10010 3846 10017
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 244DEG 19KT 3842 10004

TURNER