Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
256 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the Commonwealth tonight, accompanied by
showers and thunderstorms this evening. High pressure will then
slowly build over the area through the weekend, with mainly dry
weather and fairly seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 pm update... Pre-frontal convection is gradually
intensifying this afternoon, as it moves east of the I-99
corridor, as expected. The best combination of instability and
deep-layered shear will reside east of US-15 late this
afternoon, so this is still where strong to locally severe
storms are most probable. The 12z run of the HREF has stepped
back a bit with regards to an increase in the low-level jet over
eastern PA early this evening, so the isolated tornado threat is
perhaps a bit lower than earlier anticipated.

A temporary slow down in the cold front's progress this evening
over eastern PA, along with moisture pooling, could lead to
locally heavy rainfall in any areas where training cells occur.
The overall system will hopefully still be progressive enough
to prevent hydro related issues, but due to the sensitivity from
recent heavy rains, we'll keep a close eye on this situation.

Later tonight, as the front finally moves east of the
Commonwealth, shower activity will wind down and push eastward.
However, the approach of an upper-level trough axis from the
Great Lakes region may spark a few new, but light showers
towards daybreak over the northwestern mountains.

Given only a slow infusion of drier air overnight and locally
wet ground conditions from earlier rainfall, patchy fog seems
like a good bet. Lows by daybreak will range from the lower 50s
over the northern mountains, to the lower to middle 60s over the
Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
240 pm update... The passage of the aforementioned upper-level
trough will bring hit and miss light showers Thursday, generally
over the Alleghenies and areas north of I-80. Regions further
south and east should stay dry, under partly to mostly sunny
skies.

The incoming air mass will be cooler, with afternoon highs
ranging from only the upper 60s over the Alleghenies and
northern mountains, to the upper 70s in the Lower Susquehanna
Valley.

Height rises aloft behind the mid-level short-wave and the
approach of surface high pressure should lead to clearing skies
for most areas Thursday night. Lows by daybreak Friday are
expected to range from the upper 40s in the northern mountains,
to the upper 50s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate for the first half of the long-term
period, lasting all weekend. The low-pwat air mass should
ensure fair weather with mostly clear skies Friday into the
upcoming weekend. Slightly below average temps are expected
Friday before a warming trend starts and max temps reach much
above (+10F) normal on Sunday.

The bulk of med range guidance tracks a dying cold front into
the region early next week. Some disagreement is seen in med
range guidance to the expected southern progress of the
moisture-starved front. The front looks like it will stretch
out W-E -- but at what latitude? Low confidence on that position
is the main reason for the daily 20-30 PoPs next week. The
higher PoPs are generally in the afternoons/early evenings, with
the higher values north rather than south. The high heights (590+
dam 5H ridge) over the SE coast and western Atlantic Ocean will
try to suppress storms. Still, by next Wed, the 30 PoPs invade
the south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18z update... Passing convection ahead of an incoming cold front
will bring at least brief restrictions to all terminal sites
through late afternoon/early evening.

Overnight, areas of lower stratus clouds and fog are likely,
owing to moist low-level conditions. For now, we kept
restrictions mostly in the fuel alternate category, but IFR
conditions are within the realm of possibilities, especially for
KBFD, KJST, and KIPT.

On Thursday, restrictions could well linger through the morning
at KBFD and KJST, with upslope clouds and light showers.
Elsewhere, improvement to VFR is anticipated.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday... Mostly VFR.

Monday... Mainly afternoon and evening showers and associated
restrictions are possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Jurewicz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-091900-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ019-026>028-035>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-091900-
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Perry-
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible late this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ042-051>053-057>059-063>066-091900-
Sullivan-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with strong, damaging winds,
and locally heavy rainfall, are possible through early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Jurewicz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
307 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

PAZ041-042-081930-
Sullivan PA-Northern Lycoming PA-
307 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Lycoming and northwestern Sullivan Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 307 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Trout Run, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ralston, Trout Run, Lincoln Falls, Shunk, Forksville and Hillsgrove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 7661 4147 7654 4134 7701 4135 7702
      4133 7706 4145 7715 4159 7691 4160 7685
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 239DEG 36KT 4144 7702

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Banghoff