Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
528 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will lift north across
Central Pennsylvania this afternoon bringing a threat of heavy
rain, flooding, and a few weak/brief tornadoes. A cut off upper
low will then drift southeast across the region late this week
with unsettled conditions through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Isolated/weak tornado potential continues in central PA over
the eastern sector of post tropical Fred. Tornado Watch #447
remains in effect until 8PM EDT. Convection developing within
the convergence bands will move north and interact with the warm
front where low-level hodograph size should be maximized
(250-350 m2/s2 SRH) during afternoon peak heating.

Flash flooding threat also ongoing with two areas of focus: 1)
along and just north of the path of Fred and 2) with training
bands east of the track that contain deeper convective elements
and high rain rates. KAOO picked up just over 2" of rain in
about 40 minutes between 12-1PM with at 6hr total of 2.85"
ending 18Z. Flash flood watch remains in effect through late
tonight.

Hires ensembles show the rain exiting the area around midnight
with leftover/lingering showers on the backside into early
Thursday morning. Muggy tonight with minT 65-75F or +10-15F
above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Some isolated to scattered diurnal convection is possible on
Thursday behind the remnant low from post-tropical Fred. It will
be warmer with highs in the 75-85F range. Trailing shortwave
wraps into developing closed low over CPA Thursday night into
early Friday with max POPs over south-central PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level trough will still be over the area through the
upcoming weekend, resulting in a daily chance for pop up
showers or a few rumbles of thunder. The best chance for
precipitation each day will be in the afternoon and early
evening. Moist southerly flow may result in a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms over east central PA on Saturday,
especially in the afternoon.

Highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, generally around
seasonal averages for mid to late August.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At 21z, widespread MVFR (and occasional IFR) conds were found,
as bands of heavy rain rotate around the remnants of Tropical
Storm Fred as it traverses the region. The heaviest bands of
rain could contain a bit of lightning and brief gusty winds.
Otherwise, winds will generally be southeasterly at 10-15 kts.

The showers should gradually dissipate from southwest to
northeast this evening into tonight, as the remnants of Fred
pull to the northeast of the area. Winds will turn northwesterly
behind the departing low. This upsloping flow will bring the
western highlands (JST and BFD) down to solidly IFR cigs, with
generally MVFR cigs elsewhere.

Conditions should improve to VFR Thursday morning across the
Lower Susq Valley airfields (MDT and LNS), while low cigs will
be slower to improve farther north and west. Scattered showers
and possibly a stray storm will redevelop across the area by
afternoon, and could cause brief restrictions.

Outlook...

Fri-Mon...Restrictions possible in scattered afternoon showers
and isolated t-storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Current rainfall forecast of 1-3 inches with higher localized
amounts (5-6") brings several river points into action/caution
stage or near flood stage. This includes some on the mainstem
Susquehanna River. No river flooding is forecast at this time,
however smaller streams and creeks will remain most vulnerable
given potential for training bands of localized heavy to
excessive rainfall.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Evanego/Travis
AVIATION...Evanego
HYDROLOGY...Steinbugl

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
605 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YEAGERTOWN              40.64N 77.58W
08/18/2021                   MIFFLIN            PA   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
623 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE DUNCANNON         40.40N 77.02W
08/18/2021                   PERRY              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
628 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE HALIFAX            40.47N 76.92W
08/18/2021                   DAUPHIN            PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
656 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

PAZ058-182315-
Schuylkill PA-
656 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Schuylkill County through 715 PM EDT...

At 656 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tuscarora, moving north at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pottsville, Tamaqua, Shenandoah, Mahanoy City, St. Clair, Mcadoo,
Port Carbon, Hometown, Tuscarora, New Philadelphia, Oneida, Grier
City-Park Crest, Delano, Nuremburg, Sheppton, Brandonville,
McKeansburg, Coaldale, Locust Lake State Park and New Boston-Morea.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for central
Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4065 7598 4070 7622 4094 7618 4090 7604
      4091 7600 4084 7591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 191DEG 42KT 4076 7608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Colbert