Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
543 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm to dangerously hot conditions will last through
Friday. The heat will peak on Thursday afternoon with heat
indices between 100 and 110 degrees over the central and eastern
parts of the area. The hot and humid weather pattern will also
help to fuel daily rounds of strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms. Relief from the oppressive heat will arrive over
the weekend with more comfortable/less humid conditions by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
...555 PM EDT Severe Watch #427 Update...
Severe threat continues to the east and south of the Susquehanna
River and I-80 through 9 PM. Large congomeration of storms with
some 50+ dbz cores still sprouting over 20k feet as the area
traverses the hot and humid air over the southern and central
Susquehanna River valley this evening.

Excessive heat also remains in focus with a heat advisory in
effect for the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley. MaxTs will
be 5-10F above daily climo or about 3-5F away from record
territory with highs ranging from the mid 80s in the NW
Alleghenies to the mid 90s in the lower Susquehanna Valley. Max
HXs will push the upper end of the advisory range in the
southeast zones. Not much of a reprieve from the heat and
humidity overnight with minTs +10-15F above normal in the upper
60s in the northern tier to mid 70s in the southeast urban
centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
*Excessive Heat Warning 12-7PM Thursday for the middle and
 lower Susquehanna Valley

Peak heat expected Thursday with max HX values up to 110F
forecast in the mid/lower Susquehanna Valley. We were keen to
upgrade this area to an excessive heat warning (EHW) with this
forecast cycle. Blended guidance (NBM) shows maxTs in the upper
80/90s across the area or +10-15F above average (closer to
daily records but still shy by a few degrees at KMDT/KIPT). In
fact, the NBM is even suggesting maxTs could reach the century
mark in some parts of south central PA which is notable given
the average of models and warmer than the 50th percentile maxT.
101F is the daily record at KMDT set in 1944. The high heat
conditions are likely again on Friday, but have opted to not to
issue a headline yet in coordination with neighboring offices
(accounted for this in the HWO). A few strong to marginally
severe storms with locally strong to damaging wind gusts will be
possible again Thursday and Friday afternoon. The convective
environment will continue to be characterized by weak to modest
deep layer shear and moderate instability supporting widely
scattered storms. Max POPs both days are in the NW mtns in the
18-24Z window.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will bring much-needed relief this weekend, as
temperatures return to near-average into next week. High
temperatures will range from the mid 70s across the northern
tier to the mid 80s across the south almost everyday through the
middle of next week.

in the precipitation department, showers may linger across the
south Saturday as the cold front slows down through Maryland and
Virginia. Otherwise, the weekend looks pleasant - cooler and
much less humid as high pressure builds in from the north and
west. By next week, moisture will begin to surge northward from
Tropical Storm Fred, resulting in an increased chance for
showers and thunderstorms along the Mason-Dixon line. Current
ensemble guidance brings the remnants from Fred into the
Carolinas by Wednesday. A stationary front draped west to east
from Arkansas to the VA/NC border may mark the southward
influence of the aforementioned high pressure system. If the
high pressure progged to sit over the northeast stays put, Fred
and most of its rainfall could stay predominantly south of the
area. If a retreat northeastward happens, we may have to be a
bit more concerned about flooding impacts from heavy rainfall.

We'll cross that bridge when it comes, but enjoy the seasonable
and pleasant weather for this weekend and into the early part of
next week!

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Line of storms exiting the Laurels will traverse east into the
hot and humid air over the southern and central Susquehanna
River valleys into this evening. Other isolated cells ahead of
this line will continue to develop as well. Main impact will be
brief gusty winds. Gusts with these storms produced 42kt and
45kt gusts at KAOO and KMDT, respectively.

Outlook...

Thu-Sat...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible.

Sun...Dry conditions with mainly VFR conditions.

Mon...VFR early. Scattered PM tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this time of year are out of reach for
the current pattern, but a few maximum low temperature records
are in jeopardy (forecast within 1F of the current record):

Date			8/11			8/12			8/13
IPT 		73 (2016) 		73 (2016) 		74 (2016)
Observed 		72
MDT 			- 			77(2016) 		77 (2016)
Observed 		-

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for
PAZ028-036-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ028-036-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ012-018-
019-025>027-035-037-041-042-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Gartner
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Gartner
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin/Gartner
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
541 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

PAZ012-018-019-025>027-035-037-041-042-045-122145-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
541 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ028-036-046-049-050-056-063-064-122145-
Juniata-Franklin-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry-Cumberland-
Adams-
541 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ051>053-057>059-065-066-122145-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-
Lancaster-
541 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-034-122145-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-Bedford-
541 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible
Thursday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

PAZ063-065-112130-
York PA-Cumberland PA-
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern York
and east central Cumberland Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 459 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Siddonsburg, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Valley Green, Dillsburg, Siddonsburg, Goldsboro, Franklintown,
Lewisberry, Wellsville, Newberrytown, Messiah College and Ski
Roundtop Ski Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 7708 4020 7704 4020 7680 4018 7676
      4003 7674
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 274DEG 14KT 4012 7696

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Banghoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
501 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW COLONIAL PARK     40.31N 76.82W
08/11/2021                   DAUPHIN            PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE ON A HOUSE.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
503 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE PENN NATIONAL RACE 40.37N 76.64W
08/11/2021                   DAUPHIN            PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES ACROSS ROAD.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
507 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINGLESTOWN             40.34N 76.79W
08/11/2021                   DAUPHIN            PA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN. REPORTED VIA TWITTER.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
514 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW SKYLINE VIEW       40.35N 76.75W
08/11/2021                   DAUPHIN            PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE ACROSS ROAD.

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
547 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

PAZ065-066-112245-
Lancaster PA-York PA-
547 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Lancaster and
central York Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bainbridge to near Brogue to Delta.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, York, Columbia, Millersville, Willow Street, Red Lion,
Spry, Dallastown, Shiloh, East York, Stonybrook-Wilshire, Paradise,
West York, Salunga-Landisville, Maytown, Grantley, Tyler Run-Queens
Gate, Strasburg, Mountville and Manchester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 7659 3986 7682 4014 7678 4014 7674
      4012 7672 4013 7671 4007 7642 4006 7611
      3988 7599 3980 7642
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 259DEG 21KT 4010 7663 3994 7649 3971 7635

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert