Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
140 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm to hot conditions will last through the end of this
week. The heat will peak Wednesday and Thursday afternoons
across central and southeastern parts of the area with
widespread highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices
exceeding 100 degrees in spots both afternoons. The hot and
humid conditions will also fuel daily rounds of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Expect relief from the heat to
arrive by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
H5 shortwave tracking through southeast Ontario late this
evening with a flat trough axis swinging through north central
PA. Still some isold shra/tsra roaming areas along and north of
I-80 and this will be the case until a few hours past midnight.

Elsewhere, gradual decrease in clouds taking place with areas
of fog expected in areas that rained. It will remain very muggy
thru the night with only isold/sct SHRA in the north for the
second half of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Wednesday is looking like a repeat of Tuesday for temps. With 5h
heights rather high (590+ dm) a very weak short wave slides
overhead during the afternoon and evening. PWs pool over 2
inches over our southeast, but it appears to be so warm that
convection may be limited to scattered coverage. Am concerned
that any convection that does develop would produce heavy
downpours over my southeast given the tropical PWs arriving, but
we'll deal with that tomorrow.

Heat Advy remains in effect for roughly the southern half of
the area heat indices reach as high as 101F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hottest day on tap Thursday with heat indices as high as ~105F
over parts of the Lower Susq River Valley. A long- wave trough
finally breaks down the ridge late in the week with Friday
perhaps turning out a couple of degs cooler, but still above 90
for most places south of I-80 and east of I-99. Models differ
with the timing of the sfc cold fropa in the Fri- Sat time
frame. The ECMWF deterministic run pushes it through with
numerous showers and tstms late in the day / early evening Fri,
while the slower GFS holds the cold fropa until the more stable
Fri overnight hours, with less convection.

Showers may linger across the south Saturday as the cold front
slows down through Maryland and Virginia. Otherwise, the weekend
looks pleasant - cooler and much less humid as high pressure
builds in from the north and west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z TAFS sent.

Still some storms between UNV and IPT as of 130 AM. Not quite
as strong as earlier.

Other factor overnight will be some lower CIGS across the
northern part of central PA.

For this afternoon, showers and storms will be possible again.

Earlier discussion below.

Several areas of convection across PA early this evening, mostly
cloudy over the southern half of central PA. Elsewhere, VFR is
predominant with hazy skies across the region. Convection will
wind down after sunset with VFR, but hazy conditions overnight
and first half of tomorrow. More afternoon convection possible
next few days as region in the middle of a very warm and humid
weather pattern.

Outlook...

Thu-Sat...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible.

Sun...Dry conditions with mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
PAZ028-036-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ019-
025>028-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Gartner
AVIATION...DeVoir/Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
346 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

PAZ012-018-019-025>027-035-037-041-042-045-120800-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
346 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to marginally severe storms with locally strong to
damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

A few strong to marginally severe storms with locally strong to
damaging wind gusts will be possible Thursday and Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ028-036-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-120800-
Juniata-Franklin-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
346 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

A few strong to marginally severe storms with locally strong to
damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

A few strong to marginally severe storms with locally strong to
damaging wind gusts will be possible Thursday and Friday afternoon.

Excessive heat conditions are likely to continue on Friday with
triple-digit max heat indices forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-034-120800-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-Bedford-
346 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to marginally severe storms with locally strong to
damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few strong to marginally severe storms with locally strong to
damaging wind gusts will be possible Thursday and Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

MRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1218 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

PAZ019-045-049-110445-
Southern Clinton PA-Union PA-Southern Centre PA-
1218 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Centre,
central Union and southeastern Clinton Counties through 1245 AM
EDT...

At 1217 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blanchard, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mifflinburg, Carroll, Lamar, Blanchard, Bald Eagle State Park, R.B.
Winter State Park, Mackeyville, Forest Hill, Sand Bridge State Park,
Howard, Beech Creek, Loganton and McCall Dam State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4104 7702 4089 7705 4102 7773 4104 7772
      4109 7763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 281DEG 39KT 4103 7758

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Martin

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