Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
252 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over northern Ohio will move east-northeast
today along a nearly stationary frontal boundary, and
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which will
be capable of producing localized strong wind gusts and flash
flooding.

Drier air should push south into the northern part of the
Commonwealth on Sunday, though scattered to numerous showers
are likely to persist during the morning hours across the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

A slow moving upper trough is likely to linger over the area
into much of next week, bringing overall drier conditions and a
reprieve from excessive humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
All eyes are focused on the ongiong severe and flooding threat.
Currently, heavy rain over McKean county is causing water issues
with a Flash Flood Warning in effect. Concurrent witht he
flooding concerns is the strong to severe thunderstorms
developing across the region. Expect both of these weather
concerns to remain through the late evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
After an evening maximum in intensity and coverage of
showers/TSRA, the SFC low moves NE and pushes its trailing
cold front southeast across the region and south of the Mason
Dixon line by early Sunday. Showers linger into Sunday morning
behind the frontal passage across the SE half of the state, but
the heavy rain threat should be over by then.

Low temps early Sunday will be more refreshing in the upper 50s
to lower 60s across the Northern Mtns. However, readings will
stay rather muggy, only dipping into the mid 60s and lower 70s
in the Central and SE zones.

After a rather extensive and thick layer of post cold frontal
strato cu, cloud base swill gradually lift and break up a bit in
the afternoon with sfc dewpoints becoming more comfortable in
the upper 50s (North and West) to low and mid 60s (Susq Valley).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Persistent upper level troughing with a mean west-northwest flow
aloft will bring a series of cold fronts through central PA next
week. Timing of these fronts is uncertain with max POPs weighted
toward the afternoon and evening hours. Each front will be
accompanied by scattered showers and t-storms, confined more
to the NW half of CWA, but with much lower PWATs (available
deep moisture) we expect the probability of heavy rainfall to
remain low. CPC outlooks tilt the odds toward below average
rainfall and below normal temperatures beyond midweek. SPC has
noted that the overall speed of the flow aloft associated with
the broad upper troughing is fcst to remain rather weak. The
weak flow combined with lack of well- defined shortwave troughs
and differences with frontal timing favors a low predictability
for severe weather. Lastly, we were keen to utilize a 50/50
weighting of NBM with the consensus multi-model blend which
trends daytime temps closer to or just below seasonal averages
through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low vis and cigs likely overnight with FG and BR at IPT and
BFD, with patchy fog possible elsewhere.

More showers and storms expected tomorrow with restrictions in
+TSRA.

Outlook...
Sat...Restrictions in SHRA/TSRA
Sun...Showers gradually sag southeast, reductions possible.
Mon-WED...Isolated to scattered P.M. showers/t-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004>006-
010>012-037-041-042-045-046-051>053-058.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Tyburski
LONG TERM...Guseman/Steinbugl/RXR
AVIATION...Gartner/Wagner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

PAZ004-005-010-181730-
Warren-McKean-Elk-
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-049-050-056-057-059-063>066-181730-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Perry-
Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-011-012-037-041-042-045-046-051>053-058-181730-
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Schuylkill-
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

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