Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
252 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over northern Ohio will move east-northeast
today along a nearly stationary frontal boundary, and
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which will
be capable of producing localized strong wind gusts and flash
flooding.

Drier air should push south into the northern part of the
Commonwealth on Sunday, though scattered to numerous showers
are likely to persist during the morning hours across the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

A slow moving upper trough is likely to linger over the area
into much of next week, bringing overall drier conditions and a
reprieve from excessive humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
All eyes are focused on the ongiong severe and flooding threat.
Currently, heavy rain over McKean county is causing water issues
with a Flash Flood Warning in effect. Concurrent witht he
flooding concerns is the strong to severe thunderstorms
developing across the region. Expect both of these weather
concerns to remain through the late evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
After an evening maximum in intensity and coverage of
showers/TSRA, the SFC low moves NE and pushes its trailing
cold front southeast across the region and south of the Mason
Dixon line by early Sunday. Showers linger into Sunday morning
behind the frontal passage across the SE half of the state, but
the heavy rain threat should be over by then.

Low temps early Sunday will be more refreshing in the upper 50s
to lower 60s across the Northern Mtns. However, readings will
stay rather muggy, only dipping into the mid 60s and lower 70s
in the Central and SE zones.

After a rather extensive and thick layer of post cold frontal
strato cu, cloud base swill gradually lift and break up a bit in
the afternoon with sfc dewpoints becoming more comfortable in
the upper 50s (North and West) to low and mid 60s (Susq Valley).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Persistent upper level troughing with a mean west-northwest flow
aloft will bring a series of cold fronts through central PA next
week. Timing of these fronts is uncertain with max POPs weighted
toward the afternoon and evening hours. Each front will be
accompanied by scattered showers and t-storms, confined more
to the NW half of CWA, but with much lower PWATs (available
deep moisture) we expect the probability of heavy rainfall to
remain low. CPC outlooks tilt the odds toward below average
rainfall and below normal temperatures beyond midweek. SPC has
noted that the overall speed of the flow aloft associated with
the broad upper troughing is fcst to remain rather weak. The
weak flow combined with lack of well- defined shortwave troughs
and differences with frontal timing favors a low predictability
for severe weather. Lastly, we were keen to utilize a 50/50
weighting of NBM with the consensus multi-model blend which
trends daytime temps closer to or just below seasonal averages
through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low vis and cigs likely overnight with FG and BR at IPT and
BFD, with patchy fog possible elsewhere.

More showers and storms expected tomorrow with restrictions in
+TSRA.

Outlook...
Sat...Restrictions in SHRA/TSRA
Sun...Showers gradually sag southeast, reductions possible.
Mon-WED...Isolated to scattered P.M. showers/t-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004>006-
010>012-037-041-042-045-046-051>053-058.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Tyburski
LONG TERM...Guseman/Steinbugl/RXR
AVIATION...Gartner/Wagner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

PAZ004-005-010-181730-
Warren-McKean-Elk-
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-049-050-056-057-059-063>066-181730-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Perry-
Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-011-012-037-041-042-045-046-051>053-058-181730-
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Schuylkill-
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
428 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW MYERSTOWN         40.42N 76.34W
07/17/2021                   LEBANON            PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES IN JACKSON TOWNSHIP
            NORTH OF MYERSTOWN.

&&

JCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
432 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

PAZ041-172100-
Northern Lycoming PA-
432 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN LYCOMING
COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 432 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Little Pine State Park, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trout Run, English Center and Little Pine State Park.

LAT...LON 4136 7696 4128 7734 4140 7740 4153 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 238DEG 29KT 4136 7728

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
434 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

PAZ019-045-172100-
Southern Clinton PA-Southern Centre PA-
434 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN CLINTON AND
SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 433 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Snow Shoe to Julian. Movement was northeast
at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain is expected.
Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lock Haven, Bellefonte, Park Forest Village, Pleasant Gap, Lamar,
Lemont, Zion, Houserville, Mill Hall, Flemington, Centre Hall,
Castanea, Milesburg, Millheim, Blanchard, Madisonburg, Julian, Bald
Eagle State Park, Mackeyville and Howard.

LAT...LON 4088 7748 4079 7798 4091 7796 4106 7770
      4110 7761 4116 7744
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 243DEG 29KT 4105 7786 4085 7791

Banghoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
436 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW PARADISE          40.01N 76.14W
07/17/2021                   LANCASTER          PA   911 CALL CENTER

            STORM DAMAGE REPORTED ON LIVE INCIDENT LIST.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW ALFARATA          40.65N 77.51W
07/17/2021                   MIFFLIN            PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES ON WIRES.

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
445 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

PAZ057-059-172115-
Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-
445 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LEBANON AND DAUPHIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 445 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Dehart Dam, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lykens, Williamstown, Fort Indiantown Gap, Dehart Dam, Wiconisco and
Gratz.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 7648 4041 7663 4042 7681 4066 7671
      4065 7668
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 216DEG 21KT 4046 7667

Evanego