Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
156 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop over much of central
Pennsylvania through this evening, with localized stronger
storms, and heavy downpours.

The weather will remain unsettled Monday and Tuesday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms emphasized, as the
Commonwealth remains in close proximity to an upper level
disturbance.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 pm update... Earlier MCS has dropped down into MD/VA as of
early afternoon. Meanwhile, the cumulus field over much of
central PA has grown more bubbly with daytime
heating/destabilization. As more short-wave energy approaches
later this afternoon/early evening, along with a surface trough
axis, convection should fire most areas. Given steepening LRs
over a deep layer, dry air aloft, and effective shear near 30
knots, localized severe wind gusts and hail remain a concern.

Early this evening, many high resolution model members continue
to paint an area of heavy convective rainfall through the
Susquehanna Valley. Given a lingering boundary/air mass
discontinuity between the aforementioned unstable regime to the
west, and a cooler, more maritime environment to the east in
that general vicinity, that scenario is certainly possible and
we'll keep a close eye on developments through the evening
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
Later tonight, showers and storms should wane, leaving partly-
mostly cloudy skies behind and perhaps some patchy fog. Lows by
daybreak will range from the mid 50s over the northern
mountains, to the mid 60s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A rigous upper level trough and surface front moves into PA
Monday triggering showers and thunderstorms. As the front
progresses east and daytime heating increases instability,
there is a marginal risk for isolated severe storms by mid
afternoon into evening over central and eastern PA. Showers and
storms associated with the front continue to progress south and
east with diminishing chances and clouds over the northwest.
Upper level sharp trough with another short-wave rotating
through remains over PA for Tuesday bringing scattered showers
and possible thunder again.

Fair and cool weather Wednesday and Thursday, as Canadian high
pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Expect low humidity,
mainly clear skies and temperatures averaging a few degrees
below average, with Thursday morning potentially quite chilly
directly under the surface high. Went below guidence a few
degrees. Moderating temperatures are expected by late in the
week, as the high passes off the coast and a return southwest
flow develops.

Increasing model spread/forecast uncertainty noted by next
weekend regarding timing of a cold front. The prospects for
showers appear relatively high with this feature, given strong
forcing ahead of a deep upper trough. However, will keep POPs
close to 40 pct due to timing uncertainty. ECENS and GEFS plumes
indicate the best chance of showers/tstorms could be anywhere
between Friday evening and Saturday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR to MVFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and
evening hours as a cold front sweeps toward the area. Scattered
TSRA will develop over northern and western Pennsylvania and
move from northwest to southeast into the evening. The impacts
at any one airfield at any given time will be limited; however,
as the storms cross each airport flight categories will drop to
at least MVFR for a short 20 to 30 minute period. Any heavier
storms will drop to IFR. Outside of convection, generally VFR
conditions will prevail.

Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to develop overnight with patchy
fog likely. This will improve after sunrise Monday. Any
convection on Monday will occur aftere this forecast period.

Outlook...

Mon...AM low cigs; Isold PM t-storm impacts possible.

Tue...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Watson/Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Tyburski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
420 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

PAZ056>059-063>066-142030-
Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
420 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
142030-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
420 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and locally heavy rainfall are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ033>036-142030-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-
420 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
337 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

PAZ037-041-132015-
Northern Lycoming PA-Tioga PA-
337 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN LYCOMING AND
TIOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Ralston, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ralston, Ogdensburg, Buttonwood and Liberty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 7687 4159 7681 4141 7675 4149 7713
      4166 7721 4166 7712
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 291DEG 20KT 4155 7698

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
414 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

PAZ041-046-132100-
Southern Lycoming PA-Northern Lycoming PA-
414 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN LYCOMING AND
NORTHERN LYCOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 414 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Little Pine State Park, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
English Center, Little Pine State Park, Cogan Station, Trout Run and
Salladasburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7739 4142 7741 4146 7731 4136 7699
      4118 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 303DEG 12KT 4136 7730

Colbert

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