Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
245 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Muggy conditions will continue to support isolated to scattered
drenching downpours through late week. Cooler and more seasonable
temperatures are expected Friday into next week with a lingering
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early afternoon analysis indicates 850 mb theta-e axis still draped
across south central PA, which is the focus for showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall from southwest Centre County
through Clearfield and Jefferson Counties. The area continues to
slowly settle south, but will need to be watched for stalling
and training through the late afternoon.

Elsewhere tropical-like air mass spawning numerous narrow
updrafts throughout, with brief moderate-heavy downpours and
isolated thunder accompanying each. Some cells along the NY
border have been borderline severe with isold tree damage
reported in Tioga County and some tall storms currently over
Potter. Abundant moisture (PW 1-2") and 65-70F Td remains in
place, while low level inflow and the mean 850-300mb wind are
weak, maintaining localized heavy rainfall threat through early
evening...with WPC ERO MRGL having been nudged northward to
include all but east central/north central and northeast
sections. Diurnal heating/instability should allow convection
to concentrate mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Convective coverage gradually fizzles and fades into tonight
with lingering activity confined primarily to the southwest 1/2
of the CWA as aforementioned theta-e axis settles slowly WSW.

Another mild and muggy night across most of the area with fcst
minTs +10-15F above normal in the 60-70F range NW to SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Another day of boundary focused showers and thunderstorms is
expected for the Laurel Highlands and southern tier as
quasistationary boundary lies across that area. Improving and
drying conditions seen from north to south across northern and
central areas with a noticeable difference in Td and cooler max
temps, along with good decrease in shower coverage. Lower highs
fcst on Thursday with 24hrMaxTChange trending 3-6F lower across
the southeast 2/3 of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We will see a marked cooldown by Friday, as a backdoor cold
front slips just south of the area. However, the front will
remain close enough to keep a chc of showers in the forecast
across southern PA.

Heading into the weekend and early next week, expect
temperatures to turn milder again. The weather will remain
unsettled, although no single day looks like a washout, as a
series of shortwaves drop southeastward across the northeastern
United States. Scattered showers and storms are possible with
each shortwave, but models differ on the exact timing and
strength of the shortwaves. Have maintained at least a slight
chc of showers and aftn thunder through the period.

A more significant cold front is projected to cross the area by
the middle of next week, ushering in cooler and drier
conditions for the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At 18z, numerous showers and storms are popping up over the
higher terrain of northern and western PA, and a few showers are
beginning to develop over the Susq Valley as well.

Expect SHRA/TSRA activity to continue to through the remainder
of the day, and have VCTS at all TAF sites into this evening.
Localized, brief restrictions are expected in any
showers/storms and brief gusty winds are possible in the
vicinity of any storms.

Lingering SHRA/TSRA should diminish tonight. Patchy fog is
possible tonight, especially in areas that receive rainfall
today.

Outlook...

Thu-Mon...Predominantly VFR, although scattered showers/storms
may cause brief restrictions, esp during the aftn/eve hours.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego

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