Areal Flood Advisory 9, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
245 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Muggy conditions will continue to support isolated to scattered
drenching downpours through late week. Cooler and more seasonable
temperatures are expected Friday into next week with a lingering
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early afternoon analysis indicates 850 mb theta-e axis still draped
across south central PA, which is the focus for showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall from southwest Centre County
through Clearfield and Jefferson Counties. The area continues to
slowly settle south, but will need to be watched for stalling
and training through the late afternoon.

Elsewhere tropical-like air mass spawning numerous narrow
updrafts throughout, with brief moderate-heavy downpours and
isolated thunder accompanying each. Some cells along the NY
border have been borderline severe with isold tree damage
reported in Tioga County and some tall storms currently over
Potter. Abundant moisture (PW 1-2") and 65-70F Td remains in
place, while low level inflow and the mean 850-300mb wind are
weak, maintaining localized heavy rainfall threat through early
evening...with WPC ERO MRGL having been nudged northward to
include all but east central/north central and northeast
sections. Diurnal heating/instability should allow convection
to concentrate mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Convective coverage gradually fizzles and fades into tonight
with lingering activity confined primarily to the southwest 1/2
of the CWA as aforementioned theta-e axis settles slowly WSW.

Another mild and muggy night across most of the area with fcst
minTs +10-15F above normal in the 60-70F range NW to SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Another day of boundary focused showers and thunderstorms is
expected for the Laurel Highlands and southern tier as
quasistationary boundary lies across that area. Improving and
drying conditions seen from north to south across northern and
central areas with a noticeable difference in Td and cooler max
temps, along with good decrease in shower coverage. Lower highs
fcst on Thursday with 24hrMaxTChange trending 3-6F lower across
the southeast 2/3 of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We will see a marked cooldown by Friday, as a backdoor cold
front slips just south of the area. However, the front will
remain close enough to keep a chc of showers in the forecast
across southern PA.

Heading into the weekend and early next week, expect
temperatures to turn milder again. The weather will remain
unsettled, although no single day looks like a washout, as a
series of shortwaves drop southeastward across the northeastern
United States. Scattered showers and storms are possible with
each shortwave, but models differ on the exact timing and
strength of the shortwaves. Have maintained at least a slight
chc of showers and aftn thunder through the period.

A more significant cold front is projected to cross the area by
the middle of next week, ushering in cooler and drier
conditions for the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At 18z, numerous showers and storms are popping up over the
higher terrain of northern and western PA, and a few showers are
beginning to develop over the Susq Valley as well.

Expect SHRA/TSRA activity to continue to through the remainder
of the day, and have VCTS at all TAF sites into this evening.
Localized, brief restrictions are expected in any
showers/storms and brief gusty winds are possible in the
vicinity of any storms.

Lingering SHRA/TSRA should diminish tonight. Patchy fog is
possible tonight, especially in areas that receive rainfall
today.

Outlook...

Thu-Mon...Predominantly VFR, although scattered showers/storms
may cause brief restrictions, esp during the aftn/eve hours.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
630 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

PAZ065-092315-
York PA-
630 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
EDT...

At 629 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Weigelstown to Windsor. Movement was southeast at
10 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.
Very heavy rain is expected.

Locations impacted include...
York, Weigelstown, Red Lion, Dallastown, Shiloh, Codorus,
Manchester, Hallam, Emigsville, Wrightsville, Spring Grove,
Glen Rock, Dover and North York.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 7689 4002 7690 4005 7659 4004 7657
      4005 7653 4003 7653 3999 7650 3997 7650
      3995 7648 3991 7639 3987 7638 3981 7631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 303DEG 8KT 3997 7683 3994 7657

Dangelo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
638 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

PAZ037-041-092330-
Northern Lycoming PA-Tioga PA-
638 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN LYCOMING AND
TIOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 638 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Grover, moving southwest at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ralston, Ogdensburg, Trout Run, Buttonwood and Liberty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4170 7689 4160 7688 4159 7681 4156 7681
      4137 7705 4155 7725 4171 7690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 048DEG 21KT 4163 7691

Martin

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