Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1230 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Muggy conditions will continue to support isolated to scattered
drenching downpours through late week. Cooler and more seasonable
temperatures are expected Friday into next week with a lingering
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1345Z Update...
Morning analysis indicates 850 mb theta-e axis draped across
south central PA, which will be the focus for diurnal convection
for yet another day. Forecast in great shape for today for no
significant changes this morning. Based on morning analysis,
collaborated a northward nudging of the Day1 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook to include the WC/SC/Central Mountains and Laurels as
that zone will be the focus for slow moving locally heavy
downpours later this afternoon into early this evening.

Previous discussion:

Near and ahead of a weak upper level trough in the Ohio Valley,
abundant moisture /PWATs 1-2" and 65-70F Td/ will remain in
place across the region. Low level inflow and the mean 850-300mb
wind are also weak, favoring another day of localized heavy
downpours. Diurnal heating/instability should allow convection
to concentrate mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

The 00Z HREF shows the highest neighborhood probs for QPF>1"
initially over the NW Alleghenies between 18-21Z before
broadening a potential axis of showers/storms with locally
heavy rain farther to the southeast across the interior central
mtns into the lower Susquehanna Valley from 21-03Z. This axis is
also noted in the HREF exceedance probs for 1 & 3hr FFG. The
WPC MRGL risk ERO only includes the areas with lowest FFGs/most
vulnerable to short duration flooding/runoff issues in the SW
mtns and southeast of US-30.

MaxTs will to peak today in the upper 70s/80s or +5-10F above
the daily climo mean with max HX values fcst to reach the lower
90s across the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley. Convective
coverage gradually fizzles and fades into tonight with lingering
activity confined primarily to the southwest 1/2 of the CWA.
Another mild and muggy night across most of the area with fcst
minTs +10-15F above normal in the 60-70F range NW to SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Lower highs fcst on Thursday with 24hrMaxTChange trending 3-6F
lower across the southeast 2/3 of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We will see a marked cooldown by Friday, as a backdoor cold
front slips just south of the area. However, the front will
remain close enough to keep a chc of showers in the forecast
across southern PA.

Heading into the weekend and early next week, expect
temperatures to turn milder again. The weather will remain
unsettled, although no single day looks like a washout, as a
series of shortwaves drop southeastward across the northeastern
United States. Scattered showers and storms are possible with
each shortwave, but models differ on the exact timing and
strength of the shortwaves. Have maintained at least a slight
chc of showers and aftn thunder through the period.

A more significant cold front is projected to cross the area by
the middle of next week, ushering in cooler and drier
conditions for the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At 16z, showers are already developing over the higher terrain
of northern and western PA, and a few flashes of lightning are
beginning to be seen. Expect this activity to continue to
develop and expand in coverage as the day progresses.

Localized restrictions are expected in any showers/storms and
brief gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of any storms.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...Predominantly VFR, although scattered showers/storms
may cause brief restrictions, esp during the aftn/eve hours.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego/Colbert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
943 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-101345-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
943 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ017>019-024>028-056-057-059-063-101345-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
943 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy downpours may result in isolated flash flooding this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ033>036-064>066-101345-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Adams-York-Lancaster-
943 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy downpours may result in isolated flash flooding this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy downpours may result in isolated flash flooding on
Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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