Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
134 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A late April cold snap will bring subfreezing temperatures and
gusty winds tonight into Friday morning. Low pressure will track
south of the state, bringing rain Saturday night, then conditions
trend warmer and drier early next week. Temperatures could
touch 80 degrees by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A weak mid level vort max will track across northern Pa late
this evening, bringing snow showers and a fresh coating of
accumulation to the northern mountains. Linear extrapolation
based on latest radar trends indicate this feature and
associated snow showers should exit the northeast part of the
forecast area by around 06Z.

Also watching an upstream shortwave, which is progged to track
across southwest Pa late tonight. The bulk of latest model
guidance indicate this feature will support a period of snow
showers across primarily the Laural Highlands around 07Z-11Z.
12Z HREF and 18Z guidance indicate an inch or so of accumulation
is likely over parts of Cambria county.

For the rest of central Pa the main story overnight will be the
unseasonably cold temperatures. Northwest flow/cold advection
will result in temperatures falling below freezing over most of
the forecast area by dawn. A freeze warning remains up for parts
of south central PA, where the growing season is underway.
No frost is expected due to persistent/gusty winds.

Brisk and cold certainly by late April standards on Thursday
with maxT -15F to -20F below average (40-50F). Gusty winds will
add to the chill with wind chills running about 10F lower than
air temps. Bufkit soundings support frequent gusts between
25-30kts during the afternoon.

Continued cyclonic/NW flow will maintain low chance for
rain/snow showers over the western & northern Alleghenies.
Convection allowing models indicate a definite diurnal trend to
the showers, with the best chance during max heating of the
afternoon.

Another cold night expected Thursday night with some risk for a
freeze; frost again looks unlikely given gradient wind flow
with HP centered to the south of CPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Not a lot of change. Looking at dry conditions Friday into
Saturday, with a moderating trend.

Still looking at some rain late Saturday into early Sunday
associated with surface low tracking south of Pa. Timing
similar to the last few days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not much spread among medium range guidance, all of which
indicate anomalous upper level ridging building over the
eastern conus. Thus, confidence is high for dry weather and
rising temperatures.

Any rain Sunday morning should taper off fairly quickly, as
surface low passes off the Mid Atlantic coast. A decent pressure
gradient in its wake should result in a breezy Sunday with
temperatures close to seasonal. Surface high should build over
the state Monday with light wind and near average temperatures.

Much warmer air should arrive by Tuesday, as the high passes
off of the coast and a return southwest flow ensues. ECENS 850
temps surge to 12-14C by Wednesday, which should translate to
highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Latest guidance indicates upstream upper trough and associated
cold front will remain well west of the area through mid week,
but based on NBM have included just a slight chance of showers
over the western counties late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upsloping NW flow will continue to bring MVFR cigs to the
western highlands /JST and possibly BFD/ overnight, and
scattered -SHSN could briefly drop to vsbys to MVFR as well.
Elsewhere, VFR conds should persist overnight.

All sites should become VFR on Thursday. Wind will be gusty
/20-30kts/ from 280-320 degrees through Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR. Winds subside.

Sat...VFR early, with late-day restrictions likely in
developing rain.

Sun...Showers/reduced cigs early; trending drier Sunday night.
Gusty winds.

Mon...Becoming VFR, with gusty winds subsiding.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ026>028-035-
036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Martin
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Evanego/Colbert

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
233 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

PAZ024-220800-
Cambria PA-
233 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CAMBRIA COUNTY
through 4 AM EDT...

HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow which can rapidly reduce visibility
to less than a quarter of a mile for brief periods of time and
create snow and ice covered roads.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 226 AM EDT, a nearly stationary band of
heavy snow was located along and several miles to the south of
Route 22 and will remain in this same location through 4 AM.

THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE NEAR...
  Ebensburg and Loretto around 230 AM EDT.
  Portage, Lilly and Sankertown around 235 AM EDT.
  Gallitzin around 240 AM EDT.
  Belsano around 335 AM EDT.
  Nanty-Glo, Westmont and Johnstown around 340 AM EDT.
  Geistown around 345 AM EDT.

Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are likely in this snow band.

SAFETY INFO...
Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this band of
heavy snow. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until this
band of heavy snow passes your location.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 7887 4048 7854 4045 7856 4038 7856
      4037 7857 4035 7861 4031 7864 4028 7864
      4028 7865 4026 7864 4024 7866 4024 7878
      4035 7900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 296DEG 30KT 4070 7957 4043 7873

Lambert