Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
655 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will degrade to MVFR tonight in low clouds,
although IFR potential should be limited to heavy rain and mainly
confined to our western terminals. Radar shows convection is
maturing about 30SW LRD and should spread NE to COT with
additional bouts on/off overnight. The brunt of this activity
should miss ALI/VCT/CRP, yet some lingering SHRA or brief TS
remain possible early in the morning. VFR will resume from W-E
through the day tomorrow with light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

The remnants of now Tropical Storm Pamela will continue to track
across Mexico and is expected to reach the Texas border by tonight.
The majority of the upper level forcing will remain to the north of
the area as Pamela interacts with a cold front, so we do expect the
axis of heavier rainfall to remain north. However, a 500 mb jet and
a weak surface boundary will combine with the moisture to initiate
convection this evening into the overnight hours. With PWATs 2.0 to
2.5 inches, heavy rainfall will be a concern, particularly over the
western half of the CWA. This could lead to flash flooding, so a
Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through tonight. 2-4 inches
of rain, with isolated amounts nearing 7 inches will be possible
tonight over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.

Strong to severe storms will also be possible tonight with CAPE
values around 1500-2500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear values around
35-40 knots. Supercells and bowing line segments are possible for
tonight, with isolated tornadoes possible.

By mid-morning Thursday, the threat for severe weather and flash
flooding will diminish as the boundary pushes east across the CWA.
Drier conditions will move in, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible over the Coastal Bend and coastal waters.

Minor coastal flooding will be possible through Thursday morning,
mainly during times of high tide. Water may reach the dunes and some
beach roads may become impassable.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

We kick off the long term with a H3 subtropical jet feeding into an
upper level trough sliding across the Plains. To the south, ridging
remains in place across the Gulf. As the trough digs further south,
a cold front will be sent our way. Models have trended quicker in
recent runs. It's likely we see a wind shift ahead of the front as a
prefrontal trough takes shape. The front looks to be draped across
our northern tier of counties during the early afternoon hours and
push offshore and south of the region during the late evening hours.
Ahead of the front, moisture will pool across the region leading to
isolated to scattered showers and storms. The best chances look to
be across the southern counties where low level convergence will be
the strongest.

Behind the front, much drier air will filter into the area with
PWATs falling to 0.5" or less bringing an end to our rain chances as
we head into next week. Northerly winds will increase in the wake of
the front which may open the door to some elevated fire weather
concerns Saturday across the region. Drier air and northerly winds
will allow for much cooler air to settle in over the weekend with
highs generally in the 70s with lows in the 50s to low 60s. A few
lucky spots may see the upper 40s for a brief period.

A H5 shortwave should pass through late this weekend into early next
week. However, with not much moisture to work with, it will hardly
be noticeable. Onshore flow looks to resume early next week
resulting in a gradual moisture increase and an unfortunate warming
trend.

MARINE...

Moderate to strong southerly winds will continue through tonight. A
Small Craft Advisory conditions is in effect through tonight.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight, becoming
scattered Thursday as a boundary pushes over the waters. Winds will
weaken to moderate behind the boundary, with Small Craft Exercise
Caution Conditions remaining. Weak southerly flow is expected
Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are expected Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning across the Gulf waters as this boundary moves
through. A moderate to strong northerly flow will develop Friday
evening in the wake of the passing cold front. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely late Friday night through late
Saturday afternoon as winds pick up to around 20 knots with seas
around 8 feet. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions may linger
through the day Sunday. Otherwise, offshore flow will persist
through the day Sunday before taking on a more northeasterly
component as we head into the work week. Expect onshore flow to
resume late in the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  74  92  61  /  50  60  10  30  10
Victoria          76  89  72  91  57  /  50  80  20  20   0
Laredo            75  95  74  93  63  /  70  10  10  30  20
Alice             76  93  71  94  59  /  60  60  10  30  10
Rockport          78  88  77  89  62  /  50  60  20  30  10
Cotulla           74  92  71  92  59  /  80  30  10  20   0
Kingsville        76  93  72  94  61  /  40  60  10  30  20
Navy Corpus       79  89  78  88  66  /  50  60  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday For the following
     zones: Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning For the following
     zones: Duval...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Webb.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas.

&&

MCZ/93...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
244 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-141945-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
244 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms today, mainly over the Rio
Grande Plains and Brush Country. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM CDT Thursday morning,
for the counties of LaSalle, McMullen, Live Oak, Webb, and Duval.

Minor coastal flooding may occur during the times of high tide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through Saturday
morning across South Texas.

Minor coastal flooding will be a concern today through Thursday.

Elevated fire weather concerns are possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-141945-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
244 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are expected today and tonight.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through Saturday
morning across South Texas.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible through Thursday and
again Friday night through the day Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
812 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

TXZ239-140200-
Webb TX-
812 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Webb
County through 900 PM CDT...

At 811 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of United South High School, or 13 miles east of Laredo,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ranchitos Las Lomas and Aguilares.

This includes US Highway 59 between mile markers 802 and 816.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2731 9925 2746 9941 2776 9917 2755 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 222DEG 22KT 2747 9927

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EMF