Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
634 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...Forecast was updated to include Severe Thunderstorm
Watch for the southern portion of south Texas through 18Z. See
Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Poor aviation conditions will continue through this
morning as thunderstorms continue to develop along a boundary
stretching from Aransas Pass to Encinal. MVFR ceilings will be
prevalent most areas this morning with IFR ceilings/vsbys
occurring with strong storms and heavy rain. Vsbys may fall to
LIFR at times in locally heavy rain over the coastal plains
this morning. Expect line of convection will move east and
into the coastal waters this afternoon with a gradual improvement
to VFR from west to east late in the afternoon to early evening.
Low clouds/MVFR ceilings will return to the coastal plains from
03-06Z and into the Brush Country by 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021/

DISCUSSION...Tide levels have jumped to 1.5 feet above expected
along the Middle Texas coast. This will lead to minor coastal
flooding during the next high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory
is in effect for the islands of the Middle Texas coast from 14-23Z
today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Right entrance region of upper level jet streak over central Texas
along with low level convergence along a boundary has maintained
deep lift over the Victoria Crossroads during the night. VCT has
received over 6 inches with more falling. The outflow boundary
from overnight convection has moved south to near a Rockport to
Orange Grove to Encinal line early this morning. Instability is
strong to the south of the boundary with SPC mesoanalysis
depicting MLCAPE values up to 3000 J/kg. Models show a very strong
upper level divergence pattern near the Rio Grande this morning
and satellite shows convection increasing west of the border at
this time. Expect storms will continue to move into the Brush
Country this morning with additional storms forming along the
boundary. Storms will have the potential to grow upscale as storms
push east into the more unstable air mass with large hail and
damaging winds possible this morning into this afternoon. Storms
will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as well as
precipitable water values will be from 1.6 to near 2 inches over
the coastal plains. With the amount of rain received over the past
few days, heavy rains will lead to flash flooding.

Models depict the line of storms will move offshore by late this
afternoon or this evening. Threat for locally heavy rain should
diminish some tonight, but with saturated conditions any
additional rainfall would lead to flooding problems. Flash Flood
Watch continues through Thursday morning.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Thursday morning, then is expected to wane through Thursday
afternoon from west to east as drier air filters into the area.

The upper low is progged to shift east of the area Thursday,
allowing drier air in the mid/upper levels to filter across S TX
from west to east. Models show mid/upper trough axis to shift
back to the west Friday and through the weekend, bringing
additional showers and thunderstorms to S TX through the weekend
into early next week. The ECMWF shows some ridging by Tuesday,
while the GFS shows another upper trough swinging across the
region from the west.

Am fairly confident there will be additional convection through the
weekend, but much less confident on timing and location of heavier
rainfall as this will be dependent on timing of embedded upper level
short waves and placement/timing of mid/upper trough. For now kept
close to the NBM for pops for the weekend into early next week with
rain chances becoming isolated by Tuesday.

Due to mostly cloudy and at times wet conditions, temps will
generally remain below normal through the weekend into early next
week.

MARINE...

Moderate to strong onshore flow will continue today over the Gulf
waters maintaining SCA conditions. Numerous thunderstorms are
expected to move across south Texas this morning and move through
the coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Locally high seas
and strong wind gusts are possible with any of these storms this
afternoon through tonight. SWAN and NBM keep seas elevated over
the Gulf waters tonight and will keep SCA going until 12Z
Thursday.

A weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected Thursday and Friday,
becoming moderate through the weekend, mainly across the offshore
waters. Conditions may briefly reach advisory levels at times
through the period. Additional rounds of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  69  82  72  82  /  90  40  40  20  40
Victoria          78  67  81  70  81  / 100  50  60  30  50
Laredo            84  67  90  71  89  /  90  20  10  10  20
Alice             80  67  86  70  87  /  90  40  30  20  40
Rockport          79  70  83  72  84  /  90  50  50  30  40
Cotulla           83  67  86  70  89  /  80  20  20  20  30
Kingsville        80  67  84  71  84  /  90  40  30  20  40
Navy Corpus       81  71  81  74  82  /  90  50  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal
     Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...
     Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...
     Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg
     Islands...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces Islands...
     Victoria...Webb.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

TMT/89...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
416 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-201100-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
416 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A squall line of thunderstorms is likely to affect much of South
Texas this morning through the afternoon with heavy rainfall,
strong winds and some hail. A few severe wind gusts and large hail
are possible with this line of storms before the activity moves
offshore this evening.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Middle Texas coast
today. There is a MODERATE risk of rip currents today and
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible daily through
the week and into the weekend. A few storms could become strong
along with a threat of locally heavy rainfall.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

There is a MODERATE risk of rip currents Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-201100-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
416 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today and tonight for Gulf
waters.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to move into the coastal
waters this afternoon and move through the region tonight. The
storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible daily through
the week and into the weekend. A few storms could become strong with
gusty winds and dangerous lightning.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible on and off through
the weekend.

TMT/TE

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
816 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ242-342-191400-
Coastal Kleberg-Inland Kleberg-
816 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KLEBERG
COUNTY...

At 816 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 10 miles north of
Riviera Beach, or 13 miles east of Kingsville, moving north
around 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Kleberg
County, including the following locations... Loyola Beach.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 2726 9764 2728 9765 2726 9773 2727 9774
      2728 9776 2728 9777 2755 9778 2755 9749
      2727 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 1316Z 178DEG 14KT 2745 9765

JCP