Special Marine Warning 67, NWS Cleveland, OH

343 
FZUS71 KCLE 250746
MWSCLE

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
346 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

LEZ164-250755-
/O.CAN.KCLE.MA.W.0067.000000T0000Z-210825T0800Z/
346 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The affected areas were...
Open waters from The Islands OH to Vermilion OH...

The thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant 
threat to boaters.

LAT...LON 4143 8248 4151 8238 4171 8200 4161 8199
      4150 8203 4146 8213 4138 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0745Z 248DEG 24KT 4159 8223 4142 8222 4134 8231 

$$

LEZ144-145-165-250800-
/O.CON.KCLE.MA.W.0067.000000T0000Z-210825T0800Z/
346 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EDT...

For the following areas...
Nearshore waters from The Islands OH to Avon Point OH...
Open waters from Vermilion OH to Avon Point OH...

At 345 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 nm northwest of Avon Point to near Lorain Harbor to
near Vermilion, moving east at 25 knots.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and 
         suddenly higher waves.

Locations impacted include...
Western Vermilion, Lorain Harbor and Vermilion. 

LAT...LON 4143 8248 4151 8238 4171 8200 4161 8199
      4150 8203 4146 8213 4138 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0745Z 248DEG 24KT 4159 8223 4142 8222 4134 8231 

HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

010 
FZUS71 KCLE 250804
MWSCLE

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
404 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

LEZ144-145-165-250814-
/O.EXP.KCLE.MA.W.0067.000000T0000Z-210825T0800Z/
404 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING EXPIRED AT 400 AM EDT...

The affected areas were... 
Nearshore waters from The Islands OH to Avon Point OH...
Open waters from Vermilion OH to Avon Point OH...

The thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant
threat to boaters.

LAT...LON 4143 8248 4151 8238 4171 8200 4161 8199
      4150 8203 4146 8213 4138 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 248DEG 24KT 4163 8211 4146 8210 4138 8219 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
150 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon will slide
east on Wednesday as a weak trough will move through the lower
Great Lakes region. A cold front will move through the area on
Thursday afternoon and stall south of the area for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Still maintaining lower confidence with the forecast heading
through the night and much of the day tomorrow, but introduced
some higher precip chances across the area tonight and tomorrow
morning. Hi-res models still not quite resolving the ongoing
convection, but are generally in agreement with some showers and
storms entering the western part of the area around 08Z in a
weakening state. Focus will be on a more coherent MCV that looks
to be near the southern tip of Lake Michigan, which will likely
be the driving factor for precip chances overnight and through
the day tomorrow. Will need to watch the evolution of this
feature for honing down timing of precip chances, but went with
a more broad brushed low chance/slight chance pop through the
night into much of Wednesday across the central/western half of
the forecast area.

Original discussion...
For Wednesday, all attention turns to this afternoon's
convection across Wisconsin and Iowa. These storms should fade
away across Michigan this evening, but additional convection
continues to develop to the west. For now, it seems that the
forecast area will see some remnant cloud cover, if not a shower
or two enter the region around daybreak from this complex. Any
remnant clouds or convection will have large implications on the
forecast for Wednesday as an early cool off may taper high
temperatures a bit or showers across the area could increase in
coverage as diurnal heating could re- energize convection. With
that, have maintained the chance PoPs for Wednesday. Have
temperatures into the 90s across much of the area and with dew
points in the 70s, heat index values will be in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. However, if these remnant clouds and convection
enter the region, the forecast is too warm and the area may
escape the need for a heat advisory. With that, will allow for
another model cycle to evaluate trends before issuing a new heat
advisory. Especially as there is uncertainty with how far east
one is needed. Another wave will move through the upper ridge on
Wednesday night and more scattered showers and storms are
expected on Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Overall pattern shifting from a nearly zonal flow to amplification
of the upper level ridge over the eastern United States. This will
be in response to a shortwave trough diving into the Pacific
Northwest during this period. A weak shortwave and associated
positive vorticity maximum will move east across the local area
Thursday morning along with a surface cold front.  The cold front
will settle in across the area for the weekend as a stationary
front. Moisture along the front will linger through the period and
with day time heating and instability, can't rule out a chance for
showers and thunderstorms through this period. Temperatures show no
signs of giving up the heat as forecast area remains in the warm and
moist air mass. Slight difference may be noted along the immediate
lakeshore, otherwise it will be quite warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A vigorous trough will begin to dive into the Pacific Northwest
during the first part of the weekend resulting in further
amplification of the upper level ridge over the eastern half of the
United States. This will force a surface stationary front, poised to
be situated over the local area Friday night, to move northeast as a
warm front Saturday morning. This will allow the push of warm and
humid air into the forecast area to reinforce the air mass already
in place. As the shortwave trough moves east through Canada, a
resultant surface low pressure system will move east as well.  A
trailing cold front is progged to move east across the area Monday
where it appears to stall through Tuesday. Eventually, the
stationary front begins to wash out and the air mass to the north of
the front begins to modify and warm.  HIgh pressure will slide east
across the lower Great Lakes Tuesday as well.  After the front moves
south into the area, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
linger with the presence of the front.  Extreme north could very
well wind up being dry Monday if the moisture pushes far enough
south. As cooler air settles into the area behind the front, should
see temperatures drop only a few degrees during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms in a weakening
state is progressing east across Indiana, southern Michigan and
into northwest Ohio. These should impact KTOL and KFDY through
the next few hours, with some potential to be near KMFD, KCLE,
and KCAK by 12Z, though there is a little less certainty with
those TAF sites. The forecast beyond 12Z is very uncertain given
the fact that there is little forcing driving the evolution of
storms across the area. The general idea though is for some
amount of additional scattered convection late this morning
through the afternoon/evening hours with greatest storm
potential through the day with greatest chance for storms
between 12-18Z towards KTOL, KFDY, KMFD, and KCLE, and then
18-00Z for KCAK and KYNG. Lower potential for showers overnight.
Patchy fog could start to develop after 04Z depending on where
rain fell during the daytime hours.

Wind forecast is generally light through the TAF period, though
actual wind will probably be more chaotic with influences from
outflow boundaries and thunderstorms. Gusty winds will be
possible with thunderstorms through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Virtually no wind issues on the lake during the next 5 days as winds
are quite variable at around 5 knots or less.  Only very minor issue
is the development of a lake breeze along the lakeshore but even the
wind is expected to remain light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Lombardy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
346 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-250800-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-
346 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat indices of 100 or greater will be possible again Wednesday
afternoon. Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s to near 100 will be
possible during the afternoon hours Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ009>014-019>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-250800-
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Huron-Medina-
Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
346 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Heat indices in the 90s are possible this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s to near 100 will be possible
Wednesday afternoon, especially for northern Ohio. Heat indices in
the 90s will be possible during the afternoon hours Thursday through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-250800-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
346 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.