Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
445 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east tonight followed by high pressure
Sunday into Monday. A slow moving cold front will approach the
region later Monday and Monday night and then slowly cross the
region Tuesday. The front will move east Tuesday night followed
by high pressure Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Potential for some strong to severe tstms remains into the
early evening. Atmosphere is destabilizing across the central
and eastern section of the CWA w/dewpoints in the low to mid
50s. Dewpoints back across the far wnw have dropped back into
the low/mid 50s. Radar showed some strong storms across the St.
John Valley moving ne. Spotter reports coming in from Madawaska
revealed heavy rainfall w/0.50" in less than 30 minutes. Some
cells showing some re-development especially across the
northern border, which will need to be assessed for hydro
statements. A Flood Advisory was issued earlier for that region.
Some convective parameters also point to weak rotation and hail
w/the cells. The latest meso- analysis showed rich dewpoints
pooling across the Maine Central Highlands down in the Bangor
region into the rest of the interior Downeast, along w/steep mid
level lapse rates to support organized storms. So, attention
will shift further to the aforementioned areas for strong/sever
storms into early evening. Kept the enhanced wording for hail
and strong wind gusts. Sounding data from the RAP and NAMNEST
continue to support for rotation w/the stronger cells as LCLs
lower and good veering of the winds in the llvls. So, a brief
tornado is not out of the question. Heavy rainfall will also
accompany the storms. Activity should begin to wind down after
8PM as the instability weakens and cooling takes place through
the column. A cooldown is expected later this evening as the
cold front slides across the region. The NAM/HRRR and RAP all
show this to take place. Patchy fog expected for a while this
evening until winds turn to the w w/the passage of the cold
front. Temps will be dropping back into the mid/upper 50s.

Sfc trof is expected to swing across the region on Sunday. NAM
and GFS do show some support for showers and possible tstms.
MU CAPES 400-700 joules are forecast w/K index values in the
lower 30s across portions of northern areas. along w/lapse
rates >/= 6.0 c/km do support updrafts to keep tstms going.
Decided to keep the mention of tstms in the forecast, but
confidence is low to add enhanced wording attm. A bit warmer for
Sunday w/light W winds. Further s, the day should be rain-free
and with W winds should be temps across the Penobscot and
Downeast region, afternoon temps should be able to shoot into
the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Brief ridging in the 850 mb thru 500 mb layer builds across Sunday
evening with surface high pressure centered to our southeast across
the western Atlantic. Thus, expect fair weather Sunday night with
mainly clear skies. The light southerly flow around the high may
bring some low clouds or patchy fog toward the coast toward Monday
morning. Lows will be generally in the mid to upper 50s. An upper
trof and slow moving cold front from the Great Lakes will approach
Monday bringing increasingly moist south to southwest flow and
increasing dew points. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the
mid 80s inland from the coast and with dew points climbing into the
lower 60s by afternoon it will start to feel on the muggy side.
There could be a late day shower or thunderstorm across western
areas. The greater threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
as we head into Monday night and Tuesday. As the approaching
upper trof and slow moving cold front approaches the region.
Precipitable water values increase to 1.5" to 2.0". Latest NHC
track shows TS Claudette passes well south of the region Monday
night and Tuesday, keeping the moisture with it off to our
south. But with increasing precipitable water values Monday
night, locally heavy rain may be possible, especially in any
thunderstorms, Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front moves east of the region during Tuesday night. There
will be a continued chance for showers until the front moves east of
the region. High pressure moves in for mid week with seasonable
temperatures and mainly dry weather Wednesday and Thursday. The
next system will approach late week into next weekend for the
next chance for showers. Temperatures will tend above average
late week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: For tonight, generally VFR w/a period of MVFR/IFR in
TSRAs this evening mainly n of KBHB. There could be a period of
IFR or MVFR by early Sunday morning for low cigs and patchy fog
as the airmass cools down. SSW winds 5-10 kts w/higher gusts
near TSRAs becoming W later tonight w/the passage of the cold
front.

For Sunday, a brief period of MVFR mainly northern TAF sites and
down along the coast. Otherwise, VFR w/a chance for a TSRA for
northern TAF sites during the afternoon. W winds 5 to 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Sun Night...VFR except IFR cigs psbl vcnty KBHB late. S wind
less than 10 kt.

Mon...VFR. MVFR possible in sct shra/tsra afternoon. SW wind 10
to 15 kt.

Mon night thru Tue...MVFR or lower in shra/tsra. SW wind 10 to
15 kt

Tue night thru Thu...VFR. W wind 10 to 20 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
For tonight, SCA remains in place through 2 AM mainly for the
seas of closing in on 6 ft. Seas as of 3 PM were between 4-6 ft
and should hold there through the early morning hrs. Seas are
expected to drop back by daybreak as winds turn offshore out of
the W. Areas of fog possible.

For Sunday, W winds becoming SW 10-15 kts. Seas will be around 4 ft.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below SCA levels
through Monday. A few gusts toward 25kt are possible Monday
night and Tuesday along with seas 4 to 6 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Sunday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.

&&

Near Term...Hewitt
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Hewitt/Duda
Marine...Hewitt/Duda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
452 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-202100-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
452 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far
Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, North
Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Some storms may be
severe. Hail is the most likely threat, but any severe storms could
feature damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ029-030-202100-
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
452 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ050>052-202100-
Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM-
Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-
452 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
408 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             2 ESE MADAWASKA         47.35N 68.28W
06/19/2021  E1.25 INCH       AROOSTOOK          ME   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

TWD

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