Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1223 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region from the west
overnight, cross the region Tuesday, then exit across the
Maritimes Wednesday. Low pressure will lift north across the
region Wednesday night through Thursday then exit across the
Maritimes Friday followed by high pressure from the west on
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215AM Update...
Winds are decreasing quickly across the area this evening as
high pressure builds towards the area. The forecast was updated
to show a faster decrease of winds. Otherwise no major changes
with temperatures still mainly on track. The latest 4z
observations were brought in and interpolated to the forecast.
Satellite shows crystal clear skies, which will keep it fairly
bright tonight given the full moon, especially where snowpack
persists across the north.

Previous Discussion...
Clearing skies and decreasing winds will support a brief period
for favorable radiational cooling as sfc winds decouple very
late tngt spcly in NW vly lctns, so lows are slightly below
model blends with msly teens N and 20s Downeast.

After a chilly start to the morn, temps will rapidly recover by
Tue aftn to abv normal hi temps under msly sunny to sunny skies
and a return lgt SW wind as the sfc ridge moves just E of the FA
by aftn. There may be some patchy mid lvl cldnss ahead of a warm
front across Nrn areas durg the day, but not enough to sig
impact max potential hi temps ovr this ptn of the FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the Gulf of Maine, moves E out to sea causing
high clouds start to move back into the west and north. As the
night progresses, stronger onshore winds should push the marine
layer into Coastal Downeast causing patchy fog through Wednesday
morning. Mild conditions are expected for most of Wednesday as
the high pressure continues. Temps should reach into the mid 50s
for the entire region with some gusty S winds. A cold front
should approach from the west later Wednesday while a low
develops along the front. 250mb models show an upper level jet
head of the trough stalls over the state, keeping the cold front
over our area as the developing low moves north along the front.
This system is expected to produce large amounts of rain across
Maine from Wednesday night into Thursday. Preliminary QPF models
show the possibility of about 1.5” of rain along the coast and
about 1.0” elsewhere. 925-850mb temperatures show the cold
front moving through Thursday afternoon starting in the North
Woods and moving ESE. As the front passes, falling temperatures
will cause the rain to switch to mixed precip then snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain should switch to snow by Thursday night as temperatures
continue to decrease into the low 20s and gusty winds switch to
NW. As the low pressure moves north, the tail end of the
occlusion could keep a few lingering snow showers to the north
on Friday morning. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny
skies north with partly sunny skies Downeast Friday. By
Saturday, high pressure settles into the region pushing the rest
of the moisture out and clearing skies across the state. The
next system is expected to approach by Sunday, but model
agreement is low on the timing and location, so left precip out
of the forecast for later evaluation.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. NW winds will gradually diminish
overnight. Winds become southerly during the afternoon Tue.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night...VFR early. Variable ranging from
VFR to IFR late. South wind around 10 knots.

Wednesday...Variable ranging from VFR to IFR early. MVFR/IFR
late with developing rain. South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 20 knots.

Wednesday night...IFR/LIFR with rain. South wind around 10
knots becoming variable.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR with rain. Possibly mixing with snow late
across northwest areas. Uncertainty with winds dependent on the
track of low pressure and timing of a cold front.

Thursday night...IFR/LIFR early, MVFR/IFR late. Rain early,
tapering to snow showers north and rain showers Downeast.
Uncertainty with wind speed/direction.

Friday...VFR/MVFR north with a slight chance of snow and rain
showers. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR early then VFR.
Uncertainty with wind speed/direction.

Friday night...VFR with W winds 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday...VFR with W winds 5 to 10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
1215 AM Update:
Dropped the SCA over the intracoastal waters given calm winds at
Bar Harbor and seas around 1 foot at the Penobscot Bay buoy. SCA
conditions continue over the outer waters tonight.

Previous Discussion...
Winds sharply dmnshg late tngt to SCA ovr the outer waters and
then below SCA all of our waters on Tue. Wvs will be composed
of two spectral groups; a short 4 to 6 sec SE propagating group
and a nwrd propagating long 10 sec open Atlc swell group.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory condition expected Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Patchy fog Tuesday night through
Thursday morning. Rain Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ice movement has slowed across northern Maine rivers due to
colder temperatures and predominantly frozen precipitation. Mild
temperatures will return Tuesday and Wednesday, with another
round of significant precipitation Wednesday night into
Thursday. At this time precipitation is expected to fall mostly
as rain. Additional snow melt and rain may cause jams to
release.

Aroostook River:
The Grimes/N Caribou Road near the Caribou-Fort Fairfield town
line remains closed due to water over the road caused by an ice
jam. Water continues to threaten Russell Rd east of the Fort
Fairfield bridge, but no closures at this time. Flows are high,
but it is suspected that ice is anchored in the Fort Fairfield
vicinity keeping the jam in place. Ice movement over the Caribou
Dam will be monitored as this could affect the jam downstream.

Route 164 is also closed in the vicinity of Langille Rd near
Crouseville due to water over the road, likely due to a jam in
Rum Rapids.

Saint John River:
Sheet ice was reported from Van Buren to Keegan, with a ice jam
upstream to around Grand Isle. There is flooding of the typical
lowland areas, with some water/ice approaching Route 1 in spots.
These areas, as well as the open back water near Grand Isle,
will be monitored as temperatures fluctuate this week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

Near Term...MStrauser/VJN
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...MStrauser/VJN/LaFlash
Marine...MStrauser/VJN/LaFlash
Hydrology...

Hazardous Weather Outlook...RESENT
National Weather Service Caribou ME
416 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-310830-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
416 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ050>052-310830-
Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM-
Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-
416 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.