Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
216 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A typical summertime pattern, with scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms and seasonal temperatures, expected to continue
through Saturday.  A front will provide increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Drier air is expected
to filter into the region mid to late next week, providing less rain
chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface and upper ridge centered off the SC coast. Weak
Piedmont trough. Low level moisture remains high with
precipitable water near 2 inches. Air mass moderately unstable
with lifted indices around minus 7C and mixed layer CAPE around
2500 J/kg. Main area of showers and thunderstorm developed along
and ahead of the Piedmont trough...affecting the western
Midlands and northern portion of the CSRA. Sea breeze convection
staying near the coast. Could see further development on
outflow boundaries. With slow moving storms, and high
precipitable water, potential for locally heavy rain.

Models suggest a few showers may linger in the Piedmont late
tonight. Max temps in the low 90s. Overnight lows in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Little change Saturday, with weak high pressure, surface and
aloft, just SE of the region. Latest guidance does indicate some
slight increase in precipitable water (PW) values Saturday to
slightly above climatological normals. Will expected scattered
mainly diurnal convection, with near normal temps.

The upper ridge is expected to weaken Sunday as an upper trough
slowly digs into the E CONUS. This will bring down a front with
increased moisture. Latest SREF guidance has the front gradually
shifting down into the northern forecast area (FA) Sunday
afternoon/Sunday night, providing increased chances of
showers/thunderstorms, mainly northern half of the FA. Enhanced
frontal convergence and PW values progged to increase to around 2
inches, will lead to a locally heavy rainfall threat in any slow
moving, merging or training echoes. WPC has the N FA in a MRGL risk
of excessive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper trough will continue to dig into the E CONUS, with
frontal boundary and band of high atmospheric moisture (PW 2
inches or higher), slowly moving south through the FA Mon/Tue.
Expect continued increase in POPs and a locally heavy rain
threat.

Latest GFS and EC ensemble means in good agreement with showing a
reinforcement of the E CONUS upper trough along the northern and
central east coast, with indications of the trough axis shifting to
our east, allowing a drier NW flow aloft into our FA mid to late
next week. This appears to allow the front to slip to our south and
become diffuse, with PW values lowering to below climatological
normals. Latest NBM POPS trending down considerably mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR outside of convection.

High pressure centered offshore. Piedmont trough west of the TAF
sites. High low-level moisture and moderately unstable air mass
across the area. Convection ongoing along and ahead of a surface
trough. Have indicated tempo group for tstms at CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL and
vcnty tstms for OGB. Convection should diminish shortly after
sunset. Winds will be mainly south or southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Mainly VFR late this evening but stratus possible late tonight.
Confidence low on any restrictions after 06z. Expect scattered tstms
to develop again Saturday afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each
day in diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms and early
morning stratus/fog. Restrictions may be more widespread Sunday
through Tuesday as a cold front moves into the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
405 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-170815-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
405 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1236 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

GAZ040-SCZ018-161700-
Lincoln GA-McCormick SC-
1236 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Lincoln and western
McCormick Counties Until 100 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 1235 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Lincolnton, or 14 miles east of Washington,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail and excessive
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Lincolnton, Elijah Clark State Park, Double Branches, Curry Hill,
Loce, New Hope, Knox Scout Reservation and Woodlawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

Persons in campgrounds should seek shelter until this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 8248 3383 8234 3373 8227 3367 8250
      3370 8252 3381 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 233DEG 20KT 3376 8248

LCV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
121 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

SCZ020-026-161745-
Newberry SC-Saluda SC-
121 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of southwestern Newberry
and north central Saluda Counties Until 145 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Greenwood Near Dam Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 119 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 7 miles east of Lake Greenwood State Park, or 13
miles southwest of Newberry, moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail, excessive cloud
           to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Silverstreet, Chappells and Chappells Fire Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Greenwood should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected within
one hour. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 8174 3419 8162 3412 8187 3412 8188
      3413 8187 3415 8190 3416 8191 3418 8190
      3418 8192 3420 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 237DEG 18KT 3418 8182

LCV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
158 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

SCZ020-161830-
Newberry SC-
158 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern Newberry
County Until 230 PM EDT....

At 157 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Joanna, or 10 miles northwest of Newberry,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail, excessive cloud
           to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Whitmire, Belfast Wildlife Management Area, Enoree Ranger District
Office, Bush River Fire Station and Kinards.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected in one
hour. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 62 and 68.

LAT...LON 3453 8162 3449 8156 3445 8154 3423 8178
      3432 8187 3432 8185 3435 8183 3435 8181
      3437 8178 3444 8173 3446 8169 3453 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 215DEG 22KT 3437 8176

LCV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
202 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

SCZ018-025-026-161830-
McCormick SC-Saluda SC-Edgefield SC-
202 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central
McCormick...southwestern Saluda and northwestern Edgefield Counties
Until 230 PM EDT....

At 201 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 11 miles east of Mccormick County Airport, or 18
miles south of Greenwood, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail, excessive cloud
           to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Pleasant Lane and Northside Fire Station Main.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in one hour are expected
with this storm. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3393 8216 3398 8208 3398 8205 3395 8204
      3396 8202 3399 8199 3404 8195 3407 8193
      3388 8184 3387 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 237DEG 22KT 3393 8207

LCV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
223 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

SCZ020-025-026-161900-
Newberry SC-Saluda SC-Edgefield SC-
223 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of southwestern
Newberry...northwestern Saluda and north central Edgefield Counties
Until 300 PM EDT....

At 223 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Saluda, or 19 miles southeast of Greenwood,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail, excessive cloud
           to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Saluda, Saluda Co Sheriff's Office, Scurry Airport, Good Hope, Saluda
High School and Emory.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. This storm will produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
in an hour. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3401 8198 3404 8195 3408 8193 3410 8189
      3412 8189 3413 8187 3414 8187 3418 8180
      3398 8170 3397 8194 3398 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 240DEG 13KT 3403 8188

LCV