Areal Flood Advisory 30, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
216 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A typical summertime pattern, with scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms and seasonal temperatures, expected to continue
through Saturday.  A front will provide increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Drier air is expected
to filter into the region mid to late next week, providing less rain
chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface and upper ridge centered off the SC coast. Weak
Piedmont trough. Low level moisture remains high with
precipitable water near 2 inches. Air mass moderately unstable
with lifted indices around minus 7C and mixed layer CAPE around
2500 J/kg. Main area of showers and thunderstorm developed along
and ahead of the Piedmont trough...affecting the western
Midlands and northern portion of the CSRA. Sea breeze convection
staying near the coast. Could see further development on
outflow boundaries. With slow moving storms, and high
precipitable water, potential for locally heavy rain.

Models suggest a few showers may linger in the Piedmont late
tonight. Max temps in the low 90s. Overnight lows in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Little change Saturday, with weak high pressure, surface and
aloft, just SE of the region. Latest guidance does indicate some
slight increase in precipitable water (PW) values Saturday to
slightly above climatological normals. Will expected scattered
mainly diurnal convection, with near normal temps.

The upper ridge is expected to weaken Sunday as an upper trough
slowly digs into the E CONUS. This will bring down a front with
increased moisture. Latest SREF guidance has the front gradually
shifting down into the northern forecast area (FA) Sunday
afternoon/Sunday night, providing increased chances of
showers/thunderstorms, mainly northern half of the FA. Enhanced
frontal convergence and PW values progged to increase to around 2
inches, will lead to a locally heavy rainfall threat in any slow
moving, merging or training echoes. WPC has the N FA in a MRGL risk
of excessive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper trough will continue to dig into the E CONUS, with
frontal boundary and band of high atmospheric moisture (PW 2
inches or higher), slowly moving south through the FA Mon/Tue.
Expect continued increase in POPs and a locally heavy rain
threat.

Latest GFS and EC ensemble means in good agreement with showing a
reinforcement of the E CONUS upper trough along the northern and
central east coast, with indications of the trough axis shifting to
our east, allowing a drier NW flow aloft into our FA mid to late
next week. This appears to allow the front to slip to our south and
become diffuse, with PW values lowering to below climatological
normals. Latest NBM POPS trending down considerably mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR outside of convection.

High pressure centered offshore. Piedmont trough west of the TAF
sites. High low-level moisture and moderately unstable air mass
across the area. Convection ongoing along and ahead of a surface
trough. Have indicated tempo group for tstms at CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL and
vcnty tstms for OGB. Convection should diminish shortly after
sunset. Winds will be mainly south or southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Mainly VFR late this evening but stratus possible late tonight.
Confidence low on any restrictions after 06z. Expect scattered tstms
to develop again Saturday afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each
day in diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms and early
morning stratus/fog. Restrictions may be more widespread Sunday
through Tuesday as a cold front moves into the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
405 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-170815-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
405 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
318 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

SCZ020-021-027-028-161945-
Fairfield SC-Lexington SC-Newberry SC-Richland SC-
318 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of southwestern
Fairfield...northwestern Lexington...southeastern Newberry and
northwestern Richland Counties Until 345 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Murray Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 316 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Dreher Island State Park, or 7 miles west
of Highway 6 at Lake Murray Dam, moving northeast at 15 mph. Pea
size hail was reported with storm near the Town of Chapin.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail, excessive cloud
           to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Lexington, Irmo, Highway 6 at Lake Murray Dam, Dreher Island State
Park, Ballentine, Chapin, Little Mountain, Peak, Lighthouse Marina,
South Shore Marina, Oswald Park, Lake Murray Marina, Shull Island,
Bundrick Island, Putnam's Landing, Siesta Cove Marina, White Rock,
Rocky Point Recreation Area, Pine Island and Hollow Creek Public
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Murray should move to shore and seek shelter. Strong,
erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Rainfall amounts from 1 to 2 inches are expected with
this storm. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 87 and 98.

LAT...LON 3400 8144 3414 8145 3427 8135 3419 8121
      3400 8121 3399 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 243DEG 13KT 3407 8135

LCV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

SCZ027-162000-
Lexington SC-
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of central Lexington
County Until 400 PM EDT....

At 334 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Red Bank, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail, excessive cloud
           to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Lexington, Cayce, Springdale, Red Bank, Oak Grove, South Congaree,
Pine Ridge, Barr Lake, Red Bank Sports Complex and Edmund.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 46
and 59.

LAT...LON 3383 8135 3392 8138 3403 8120 3388 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 245DEG 24KT 3389 8132

LCV

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