Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the
weekend providing a typical summertime pattern. Expect
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day along
with seasonal temperatures. A front will provide increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridge over the Southeast will begin to move to the east
overnight. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure continues to ridge
into the Carolinas and GA with a lee side trough over the Piedmont.
The airmass remains moist with pwats from 1.75 inches west to just
over 2.0 inches east. Airmass moderately unstable with Lifted Index
around minus 6 and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Showers and
thunderstorms mainly affecting the eastern Midlands and Lower
Savannah River Area where pwats are highest. HREF ensemble indicated
scattered convection across the eastern half of the forecast area
and more isolated west. Forcing remains weak. Max temps in the upper
80s and low 90s. Convection should diminish after sunset so low pops
in the evening. Overnight mins in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Little change. Typical summer weather expected, with weak high
pressure, surface and aloft, just south of the region. This,
along with precipitable water (PW) values near climatological
normals, is expected to provide a seasonally normal chance of
mainly diurnal convection, with near normal temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper ridge is expected to weaken Sun into early to mid
next week as an upper trough develops and digs into the E CONUS.
This will bring down a front with increased moisture. NBM
guidance continuing to indicate POPs increasing to likely with
the front, which appears reasonable. Near normals temps through
Sunday, then some decrease in max temps early to mid week with
the greater convective coverage and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR forecast outside of scattered diurnal convection.

High pressure centered off the coast continues to ridge into the
area. West-southwest winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, becoming
light tonight. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon may result in
brief restrictions at terminals. Although guidance is indicating the
focus will continue across the CSRA to eastern Midlands, coverage
yielding low confidence any terminal will be affected. Convection
should diminish after sunset. Stratus or fog possible late tonight
but confidence too low to include restrictions. Convection will
develop again during the afternoon Friday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms and early morning
stratus/fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
453 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-160900-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
453 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
306 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

SCZ028-031-151930-
Richland SC-Sumter SC-
306 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central Richland
and northwestern Sumter Counties Until 330 PM EDT....

At 303 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Oakland, or near Shaw Air Base, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Sumter, Shaw Air Base, Oakland, Dalzell, Dinkins Mill, Wateree River
Correctional Institution, Stateburg, Rembert and Wedgewood.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3400 8064 3410 8058 3405 8038 3387 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 316DEG 8KT 3400 8054

LCV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
331 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

SCZ041-136-137-152000-
Central Orangeburg SC-Southeastern Orangeburg SC-Bamberg SC-
331 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of south central Central
Orangeburg...southwestern Southeastern Orangeburg and central Bamberg
Counties Until 400 PM EDT....

At 331 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Bamberg, moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail and excessive
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Bamberg, Branchville and Ehrhardt.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3307 8092 3310 8094 3307 8099 3322 8110
      3335 8096 3320 8075 3312 8089 3309 8088
      3306 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 314DEG 19KT 3323 8098

LCV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
351 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

SCZ037-136-137-152015-
Central Orangeburg SC-Southeastern Orangeburg SC-Calhoun SC-
351 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central Central
Orangeburg...northwestern Southeastern Orangeburg and southeastern
Calhoun Counties Until 415 PM EDT....

At 350 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Orangeburg County Airport, or 7 miles
southeast of Orangeburg, moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph, pea sized hail and excessive
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Orangeburg, Brookdale, Bowman, Orangeburg County Airport, Claflin
College, Edisto Gardens, South Carolina State University, Rowesville,
Wilkinson Heights, Edisto and Yonder Field.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 150 and 162.

LAT...LON 3338 8087 3350 8094 3351 8081 3351 8056
      3330 8065
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 284DEG 8KT 3342 8077

LCV